AKo on K high board, check river behind? stars mtt $15k guaranteed

[Pinchop73]

Villain playing 38/18 over 58 hands.

Checking river behind?

***** Hand History for Game 69970977588 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, November 03, 02:23:58 ET 2011
Table 545010424 186 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: 19sergey91 ( $2626.00 USD )
Seat 2: Ultraballs18 ( $9465.00 USD )
Seat 3: neox22 ( $3050.00 USD )
Seat 4: PanMan89 ( $7486.00 USD )
Seat 5: LookinGood46 ( $1384.00 USD )
Seat 6: Eirik227 ( $2476.00 USD )
Seat 7: kingeker ( $5634.00 USD )
Seat 8: AMr.CleanA ( $3891.00 USD )
Seat 9: El. Juninho ( $8976.00 USD )
LookinGood46 posts small blind [$100.00 USD].
Eirik227 posts big blind [$200.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ultraballs18 [  Ah ]
kingeker calls [$200.00 USD]
AMr.CleanA folds
El. Juninho folds
19sergey91 folds
Ultraballs18 raises [$666.00 USD]
neox22 folds
PanMan89 folds
LookinGood46 folds
Eirik227 folds
kingeker calls [$466.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
kingeker checks
Ultraballs18 bets [$999.00 USD]
kingeker calls [$999.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
kingeker checks
Ultraballs18 bets [$1111.00 USD]
kingeker calls [$1111.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
kingeker checks
Ultraballs18 bets [$4000.00 USD]
kingeker calls [$2858.00 USD]
Ultraballs18 wins $1142.00 USD
Ultraballs18 shows [, Ah ]
kingeker shows [, ]
kingeker wins $11568.00 USD from main pot

[Rod]

This is one of those that would be better without seeing the outcome of the hand :-)

I would probably check behind. We might have the best hand but almost certainly only get called if we are beaten (so we can't value bet). The river card is horrible as it completes every draw (str8 draws and flush draws) and 2 pairs hands are now even more likely.

A VP$IP of 38% suggests a looser player so is more likely to make the call on the river with a hand such as the one he had, therefore I am not a big fan or turning the hand into a bluff.

Yes, I think this is a check behind.

[Doobs]

The bet sizing on the turn/river looks bad.

You bet two thirds on the flop, but one third pot on the turn, but then you push up your size on the scariest river card you could get.

I'd go as far as to suggest there isn't a single hand that he has been calling with that you are now beating, so think you have to check behind.  Even not seeing his hand, it does feel like every K he calls with, every 9 and every draw now has us beat. 

I have assumed you aren't deliberately turning your hand in to a bluff here.

[BulldozerD]

He's not the sort you should be bluffing the river against. Check back 100%

Think turn decision is more interesting tbh

[SuuPRlim]

Im pretty sure Nathan was value betting here? I think here Vbet is marginally > bluffing, or maybe some sort of merrrrrge

I think its way too thin a spot to Vbet (although vs this guy it might be ok-ish) its now only A9 and T8 that we get calls from (if we even do) KQ and QT would have been the other two but they now make straights, and there is no "missed draws" he can put you on, vs a better player jamming as a bluff would prolly be a decent line as he's getting a good price and you can have plenty of queens, QQ, KQ, AQ, QT, QJ but here vs a guy limp-calling EP I think its safer to assume he is prolly a fish and just check back and try and beat something

[cambridgealex]

Bet turn bigger, or check back, close imo.

River is a easy check behind. Way too thin to vbet, not a good spot to bluff imo. He's not folding anything better.

[Pinchop73]

Ott villain has 3969 behind, with 3630 in the pot.

I felt I was ahead enough to value bet an amount that he'd have to call the river.

When he checks the river I felt confident enough that he didn't have the flush draw as he'd just jam his remaining 2878 into the 6191.

I felt he'd have jammed with anything better ott imo with the flush draw out there, so it was a genuine value bet otr. Nevermind.

Having looked at it again imo the nut line would be to bet 1222 on the flop so that he has a pot size bet left on the turn to set him in with.

[cambridgealex]

Nah, your cbet size was too big on the flop imo. There's like 1300 in there, just bet 700, 1350, then shove for 2950, that sort of thing depending on how the board runs out. I think your flop bet size is what's messed you up here.

[railtard1]

Nah, your cbet size was too big on the flop imo. There's like 1300 in there, just bet 700, 1350, then shove for 2950, that sort of thing depending on how the board runs out. I think your flop bet size is what's messed you up here.

well that, and the fact the board has run out pretty fking horrible.

Against a donko i check the turn here, then go for like full pot on some rivers. As played 120% of the time u should check back the river m8, especially against this clown

[George2Loose]

stop all the 666 and 999 too. It's not cool NEmore

[celtic]

Got rid of all the rubbish.

Be nice to each other please.