Premier League Relegation Season 2011/2012

[FUN4FRASER]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

[mondatoo]

GLGL, I don't see Sunderland going down though.

GTFO plz Wigan, surely it's time for them to go.

[FUN4FRASER]

GLGL, I don't see Sunderland going down though.

GTFO plz Wigan, surely it's time for them to go.

Cheers Ray

Its easy to pick the obvious selections such as Wigan ( thats how the bookmakers make their money ) but history dictates that things can change dramatically over the period of a season , as I said mine are not orthodox but there is a lot of long term reasoning behind my selections hence  I deem them as good  value

[mondatoo]

GLGL, I don't see Sunderland going down though.

GTFO plz Wigan, surely it's time for them to go.

Cheers Ray

Its easy to pick the obvious selections such as Wigan ( thats how the bookmakers make their money ) but history dictates that things can change dramatically over the period of a season , as I said mine are not orthodox but there is a lot of long term reasoning behind my selections hence  I deem them as good  value

Yeah I wouldn't back Wigan now as I expected them to struggle, I just say that every season as I really don't like them

I actually think it's really tough to choose who will go this season, I fancy Norwich and Swansea to stop up but can't pick who goes instead of them. Blackburn are in bother but tbf to them they've been pretty unlucky the last few games it would seem.

[Josedinho]

At the moment I'm thinking Wigan, Norwich, Bolton to go down but I've seen a lot of teams look poor this season.
I think Sunderland may improve under new management and can see QPR taking a few batterings but also picking up enough points to survive.
Would be interested to hear further thoughts behind your selections if it's something that you've done well at previously.

[pleno1]

thoughts on stoke?

[redarmi]

Would be interested to hear further thoughts behind your selections if it's something that you've done well at previously.

This. Outright markets seem near impossible to price up properly without building a model of some sort.

Don't really agree with this.  The problems with trying to model something like this is that any mistakes in rating the teams are massively multiplied.  A simple look at fixtures so far and league positions can be enough to figure out whether a team is being overrated or underrated.  Bolton are a great example. Before the season started they were 7/1 to go down.  They lost eight of their first ten games and suddenly they were 13/8 to go down but of those eight defeats five were against Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all traditional top six teams.  Of their games against bottom half type teams they lost away at Swansea, at home to Sunderland and Norwich whilst they beat QPR 4-0 and Wigan 3-1.  Only really losing at home to Norwich and Sunderland can be classed as bad results.  Yeah they should have been cut to maybe 7/2 but any idiot could see they weren't 13/8 shots to go down unless you were only looking at the league table and reading the tabloids.  It doesn't take a model to tell me that they would be a good lay at 13/8.   Siimilarly I agree with OP that QPR are being massively overrated on a handful of results and in particular one victory against 9 men.  I could go on but basically people pay wayyy too much attention to league tables at this time of year and that means there is value in these markets and it isn't that hard to find.  Odds compilers spend literally 20 minutes on these markets on a monday morning and you don't need to be a maths genius to spot the ricks.

[Horneris]

Even though I like what Norwich are doing I think heading towards 2-1 might be a little on the large side.

They have run miles above expectation and are only 4 points above 18th. They have played great no doubt but teams will start to figure them out and a couple of injuries could really cut into a squad without that much in-depth ability.

[action man]

ive seen u on stars recently, but werent you manintheMQQN?

[FUN4FRASER]

thoughts on stoke?

Nothing is impossible...but for me reasons why they wont go down ...

1  great manager  2 good team spirit  3 great home crowd /fortress   4 kenwyne jones to score goals  5 huth/woodgate at centre half

[FUN4FRASER]

Would be interested to hear further thoughts behind your selections if it's something that you've done well at previously.

This. Outright markets seem near impossible to price up properly without building a model of some sort.

Don't really agree with this.  The problems with trying to model something like this is that any mistakes in rating the teams are massively multiplied.  A simple look at fixtures so far and league positions can be enough to figure out whether a team is being overrated or underrated.  Bolton are a great example. Before the season started they were 7/1 to go down.  They lost eight of their first ten games and suddenly they were 13/8 to go down but of those eight defeats five were against Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all traditional top six teams.  Of their games against bottom half type teams they lost away at Swansea, at home to Sunderland and Norwich whilst they beat QPR 4-0 and Wigan 3-1.  Only really losing at home to Norwich and Sunderland can be classed as bad results.  Yeah they should have been cut to maybe 7/2 but any idiot could see they weren't 13/8 shots to go down unless you were only looking at the league table and reading the tabloids.  It doesn't take a model to tell me that they would be a good lay at 13/8.   Siimilarly I agree with OP that QPR are being massively overrated on a handful of results and in particular one victory against 9 men.  I could go on but basically people pay wayyy too much attention to league tables at this time of year and that means there is value in these markets and it isn't that hard to find.  Odds compilers spend literally 20 minutes on these markets on a monday morning and you don't need to be a maths genius to spot the ricks.

a lot of my sentiments/logic in this post

WP

[pleno1]

thoughts on stoke?

Nothing is impossible...but for me reasons why they wont go down ...

1  great manager  2 good team spirit  3 great home crowd /fortress   4 kenwyne jones to score goals  5 huth/woodgate at centre half

1) really? i think hes awfull

2) agreed

3) agreed

4) doesnt get a game

5) huth doesnt get a game and woodgate is injury prone

[FUN4FRASER]

thoughts on stoke?

Nothing is impossible...but for me reasons why they wont go down ...

1  great manager 2 good team spirit 3 great home crowd /fortress's  4 kenwyne jones to score goals  5 huth/woodgate at centre half

1) really? i think hes aw full

2) agreed

3) agreed

4) doesn't get a game

5) hutch doesn't get a game and woodgate is injury prone

Jones will be back soon,woodgate is a crock for sure but great when he plays...We agree to differ on Pullis

Opinion  in life  (as with poker ) is subjective thats what makes us different and life interesting....We make both winning  and losing decisions , we just need to make sure we %  on the winning side for the long term ,which I think is possible( with reason ,logic  and a bit of luck ) especially on long term markets

[pleno1]

for sure

pulis is still shti though

[pleno1]

my thoughts on sland are that brown, o shea etc all have alot of experience and are winners. Seszsegon and Bendtner wil always be a threat and they have lots of grinders such as Larson who will put in steady performances.

Still scum ofc.