1/2 Cash, super spaz?

[Leedszilla]

Hey guys, first hand post for me, so would appreciate peoples' thoughts.

I'm playing 1/2 at the G Casino Walsall, pretty late on the day, so standard super loose live game.

Solid reg limps UTG, looseish good reg calls UTG + 1, pretty tight reg calls UTG + 2, button calls (never seen him before, so no info). I have in the SB playing £120 (lost a few decent size pots in the last few orbits) and call. Super spewy fish in the BB moves in for £28 having just lost a huge pot. UTG flats, as does everyone else (lolz, classic live limp/call 14BB) comes back around to me, I shove for the £120.

What do people think?

My thought process is this, BB pretty much has any two, and the rest of the table knows this. From knowing the players I'm absolutely sure that neither UTG, UTG +1 or UTG + 2 have a big hand, and I similarly know that none of them is passing A5s, 87s, 44, J10o to the BB's shove. UTG in particular I'm sure is quite weak, as I believe he'd be 3betting QJ or better. UTG + 2 is pretty tight, so while I think he may well call the £120 with something like QJ, I don't think that there are any hands in his range that he's overcalling somebody else with. UTG + 1 as I say is pretty loose and not afraid to gamble, so again I expect him to call with potentially as low as J9 + any pair. When I put all this together, the jist of the situation is that I think I have very little chance of getting all folds, but an excellent chance of getting only 1 call from a hand I'm fairly unlikely to be worse than 44% against. In return I'm getting £84 of dead money in the pot.

To me this seems like a fairly standard shove with my stack, but people were literally coming over from other tables to tell me how bad my play was. Their main complaint seemed to be that my hand looks weak, and I agree my hand does look weak, but I think this is rather beside the point since my aim is never to get all folds, and I don't think any of the players in the hand are likely to be overcalling one another, and thus I'm very likely to end up with exactly 1 caller.

[SuuPRlim]

Hold'em Simulation ?
16,355,927,808 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
QT   48.54%   7,673,882,344   529,228,372
50%   51.46%   8,152,817,092   529,228,372


Hold'em Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand   Equity   Wins   Ties
QT   27.40%   158,606   12,525
50%   28.73%   164,684   16,364
15%   43.86%   255,329   16,630



= SPEW.

[Leedszilla]

Thanks for the reply. I'm not entirely familiar with the software though, so I'd definitely appreciate an explanation of the various numbers.

[Leedszilla]

Tell me if this is correct or not, using the trial below:

QT   27.40%   158,606   12,525
50%   28.73%   164,684   16,364
15%   43.86%   255,329   16,630

I win the whole pot 27.4% of the time, which given the pot is 352, is +96.45

I also win the side pot (184) whenever the BB wins the main pot, and I beat the other hand. In order to break even this needs to be me at least +23.55

So the break even equation is 0.2873 * (odds of my hand beating other hand) * 184 = 23.55

Doing the maths, to break even my hand needs to beat the hand I'm called by 44.5% of the time to show a profit. That might be slightly too generous, but it seems to me that even if it is spewy it's only very marginally so.

[SuuPRlim]

the numbers I gave were completely off my head and can't be given any actual weight, what i was basically highlighting is you're behind to a 50% range and if someone else gets it in behind as well then you're basically crushed.

Trust me, no amount of number crunching will make this anything but a fold, in fact, even if the jammer is blind Im pretty sure its still a fold

[SuuPRlim]

the main value in these spots is from the fold equity, so we find a hand with SOME all-in value and jam with it expecting to win the pot uncontested and win 100% of the pot when he folds, and have Xequity when he doesnt. Here we have to be allin, so al our equity has to come from the pot and we NEED a better hand than this,

[cambridgealex]

What a load of nonsense Dave. Get your money in a do a win!

Also, lol @ the sentence "solid reg limps utg".

Seriously though, just fold quickly. Jam, I'd probs play AT this way and jam now fwiw.