Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river?

[rbc_mike]

50p/£1 at DTD
7 handed

Fish limps in MP with around £80 stack.  Loose player, MP+1, playing around £200, makes it £7. Folds to sb who calls playing £200 effective.
Hero dealt  in bb, calls £7 (on reflection, probably should have just folded /thread).
Fish calls.

All stacks apart from fish's are £200 effective.

Pot: £28.
4 players.
Flop: 

Checks through.

Pot: £28.
4 players.
Turn: 
sb checks, hero checks, fish checks, mp+1 bets £5.
Sb calls, hero calls, fish folds.

Pot: £43.
3 players.
River: 
Sb checks, hero checks, mp+1 confidently throws in £30.
Sb calls.

Pot is now £103. Hero?

£30 to win £103, need to be right just over 22% of the time.
At the time I felt I was bluff catching. I can be ahead of the sb's calling range, but it is the original raiser I'm concerned about.

Felt he could easily check back AQ, AK, AJ, 99 on the flop to be setting the tarp.  On turn, considered c-r but couldn't see much value? Backdoor flush draws are the only worse hands I can see calling, as well as all better aces and full houses (feasible the original raiser checked back 77 for example).  Felt I could potentially extract more value by just calling, with my hand rather under-repped.

On the river I did a little puke, the confident bet on the river felt strong to me. Villain had not shown many aggressive tendencies all night, so felt it was never really a bluff.  With sb overcall, does trips with a 6 and a 9 kicker over 22% of the time against these two players' ranges?

Line checks/thoughts please

[rbc_mike]

*sigh, edit above should be trip aces with 9 and a 7 kicker.

[SuuPRlim]

its 100% a call imo, and once again you've played the hand really well.

info on the SB would be pretty useful, like he should have a pretty strong range here, but most people at these stakes wont check A* on the turn I'd actually expect him to have a 9x hand most of the time, although HE SHOULD NOT call the river ever with a 9x.

Fold, imo would be absurd given you can beat some MP value bets and the SB (unless he's really good) has a worse hand most of the time.

I'd be more worried about the SB's call than the £30 bet.

Also don't ever c/r this turn, and I would personally never fold pre but it wouldn't be bad to, I don't think it really matters

[mulhuzz]

think this is the kind of board where people will valuebet and call with JJ and TT etc making this a pretty quick call I think.

[rbc_mike]

Thanks for the quick responses on my PHAs, really appreciate the feedback.

Sb is a relatively competent reg imo, perhaps a little spewy tho.  Does this change our decision at all? I'm guessing if I see him as slightly splashy it makes a call even more of an option.

think this is the kind of board where people will valuebet and call with JJ and TT etc

Do we really think MP+1 (who I see as pretty bad) will confidently value bet JJ/TT when there are two calls in front of him on the turn? Surely he assigns at least one of us an ace, and assumes we are not folding to a river bet?

[SuuPRlim]

Do we really think MP+1 (who I see as pretty bad) will confidently value bet JJ/TT when there are two calls in front of him on the turn? Surely he assigns at least one of us an ace, and assumes we are not folding to a river bet?

I can be pretty confident when he bets the river he doesn't think either of you have an ace.

[rbc_mike]

I can be pretty confident when he bets the river he doesn't think either of you have an ace.

If he doesn't give either of use credit for an ace, what does he think we have that we are calling a 75% pot river bet? I would imagine he is the kind of player that if say had JJ/TT, would think, 'I'm only getting called by an ace' and would check back river.  Though bad players at 50p/£1 have a tendency to merge/thinly value bet without realising it!

What ranges do you think he assigns us (sb and bb) SuuPRlim? Not criticising, just trying to learn more

[pleno1]

its quite a reluctant call, but i call nevertheless, wp on flop/turn, pre is ok too, but semi borderline.

[SuuPRlim]

I dont know tbh, I don't think he is assigning you any ranges he prolly thinks that once its gone flop-chk, turn-chk no-one has an ace. I think a big danger playing vs this type of oppo is to think above his level of thought process, you'll have a much better grasp of his level of thought/hand reading and can adjust accordingly, but from my experience I would imagine he is not "putting either of you on an ACE" this isn't to say he is value betting JJ/QQ cos he most likely isnt, but could be bluffing a lot, or betting with a 9 for no reason.

[zerofive]

I remember being present at the time of this hand and being pretty surprised that you folded an ace. Even more surprised that you had an ace tbh. Your hand was so under-repped. At the time I remember thinking it was pretty close, but having looked at the hand through some fresh eyes just now, I'm definitely leaning towards a call. I think if you had a little more history on both players, you would cringe at the idea of folding now. The bettor is, as Dave (suuprlim) has correctly identified, is the kind of player that just "doesn't believe." He loves to call with bottom pair for the times he is right, and shows a tendency to value bet pretty thin (probably without realising) in spots like this. Could also be a badly-sized bluff as the info he has on the hand suggests that your combined range with the small blind is predominantly flush draws and small pairs.

The small blind in this hand is becoming somewhat of a reg, but don;t have a lot of showdown info on him yet. Your assessment seems correct thus far: decent but with spewy tendencies.  From what I know about him, he is unlikely to play an ace like this throughout the hand. Although, I did pay him off earlier in the evening so probs best not to take my opinion Reckon he'd defo want to raise an ace here 'cause he obviously doesn't think you're going to overcall, and expect his range here to be 88, TT, JJ, T9+. I think your thought process on the river was clouded by the fact that you immediately assigned villain 1 to the top of his range and then saw the call as an excuse to fold what by now feels like a marginal holding. From what I remember you folded pretty quickly. Probs selective memory kicking in from the times you see fish just smash it in out of nowhere and then show you the nuts fairly predictably. Different kind of fish imo and in hindsight I like a call.

[GreekStein]

Why not lead turn?

[SuuPRlim]

Why not lead turn?

honestly prefer a chk ideally, leading the turn makes your hand (even to fishy players) look like exactly what it is, you'll even get people "hero folding" smaller pairs I think.

[GreekStein]

Rly dave?

In a small live game I'd expect to get 2 streets if anyone has 88+

[pleno1]

Nah I think we look absurdly strong to a random when we bet twice.

[SuuPRlim]

i mean one thing that gives leading the turn a lot of merit is how often the turn should get checked through (which isnt great)

something about the turn/river in this hand makes me think he has 55 lol, still defo a "whatever" call though imo