6max 200NL - Two pair facing turn c/raise

[cambridgealex]

Ongame 1/2. We start with $227, villain covers. We are playing 27/26/7 over 68 hands at this table. We have 441 hands on villain and he is 15/11/4. He is in the BB.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with    
Hero raises to $6.00, 3 folds, HowieDO_x calls $6.00
 
Flop: ($15.00)      (2 players)
HowieDO_x checks, Hero bets $8.00, HowieDO_x calls $8.00
 
Turn: ($31.00)      (2 players)
HowieDO_x checks, Hero bets $17.00, HowieDO_x raises to $69.00, Hero??

If we call, we have 144 back otr and the pot would be 167.

My thoughts were I would expect him to c/r 44/55/A5 otf. I thought his value range was 99 and A9 and included lots of semi bluffs. So I called and he shoved on a river. Now?

[chatban]

Would depend on his fold to cbet flop\turn stats. I think this is a pretty easy fold now. 78ss gets there too.

[rfgqqabc]

Think its a call down but he could easily have   - so weighted towards pocket pairs being tight pre. It is a dirty spot and he could easily have AJhh/AQhh so i can't see myself folding. What is with the pot size otf, you make it 6 and big blind calls, pot size is 15?

[cambridgealex]

Think its a call down but he could easily have   - so weighted towards pocket pairs being tight pre. It is a dirty spot and he could easily have AJhh/AQhh so i can't see myself folding. What is with the pot size otf, you make it 6 and big blind calls, pot size is 15?

no 6+6+1 = 13 mate

[SuuPRlim]

I really think I'd pay him this one and find out. It's pretty crucial information and we get to see 1) if he's capable of doing this as a semi-bluff/bluff and 2) exactly what he's calling HU with OOP from the blinds, personally I'd have thought he'd fold 44 and 55 a high % pf the same with and I'd give him a lot of Ah + hands. Also don't think he'd call A9 pf hardly ever but this is a spot where we're getting a decent pricce to learn something about a regs tendancies I'd just get this in and make a note of this hand for sure.

As for Jamming over call call OTT, seems like he is going with the hand on the turn so I guess I'd jam , I'd for sure call if I felt like he had any pure airballs in his range but I don't. The main advantage to call call is that we 100% get a showdown and get to see his hand

[chatban]

Does anybody fold small PP to one raise? I think 78 is actually not in his range. In fact tbh not sure he has many Fds in his range either. 4% is pretty narrow. Its surely connected and suited broadways or a set. Very unlikely to have a set with your blockers. Think this is pretty much neutral EV.

Also if 78ss is in his range so is 45 suited..

[skolsuper]

15/11? Don't think you should ever pay this guy with something so far from the nuts. Can't see him playing anything but a set this way. Don't know why   keeps getting mentioned, what's so special about that?

The only mitigating factor is that he never has A5 or A9 so his value combos are very few, if he ever does this with AK (which he might) then you're in clover

[rfgqqabc]

Think its a call down but he could easily have   - so weighted towards pocket pairs being tight pre. It is a dirty spot and he could easily have AJhh/AQhh so i can't see myself folding. What is with the pot size otf, you make it 6 and big blind calls, pot size is 15?

no 6+6+1 = 13 mate

HH says 15, ongame is buggy as fuck i guess.

[cambridgealex]

Think its a call down but he could easily have   - so weighted towards pocket pairs being tight pre. It is a dirty spot and he could easily have AJhh/AQhh so i can't see myself folding. What is with the pot size otf, you make it 6 and big blind calls, pot size is 15?

no 6+6+1 = 13 mate

HH says 15, ongame is buggy as fuck i guess.

that is weird

[Rupert]

if it's profitable to call call it's better to jam I think since he's never folding the turn but it looks like folding the turn is probs best.  I'm a bit worried he's gone berserk with AQ/AK which these nits do sometimes fall in love with but prob just most sensible to fold

[SuuPRlim]

Does anybody fold small PP to one raise? I think 78 is actually not in his range. In fact tbh not sure he has many Fds in his range either. 4% is pretty narrow. Its surely connected and suited broadways or a set. Very unlikely to have a set with your blockers. Think this is pretty much neutral EV.

Also if 78ss is in his range so is 45 suited..

like I wouldn't expect him to call 78 or 45 almost ever, 44 and 55 idk I think those are bad hands to call so i reckon nitty players espcially would fold but i spose it depends. I'd wanna see this hand personally

[cambridgealex]

Does anybody fold small PP to one raise? I think 78 is actually not in his range. In fact tbh not sure he has many Fds in his range either. 4% is pretty narrow. Its surely connected and suited broadways or a set. Very unlikely to have a set with your blockers. Think this is pretty much neutral EV.

Also if 78ss is in his range so is 45 suited..

like I wouldn't expect him to call 78 or 45 almost ever, 44 and 55 idk I think those are bad hands to call so i reckon nitty players espcially would fold but i spose it depends. I'd wanna see this hand personally

He had A9dd fwiw so peeling all suited aces and prolly 44 and 55 but these c/r the flop on this board surely?

[SuuPRlim]

yh. I wouldnt expect him to have A9. I actually think he's more likely to peel A9dd than 44 or 55but they all pretty stnd folds. These nitty guys make some good awful peels sometimes

[Bully87]

In the words of yourself...fold pre

No need to play this hand as nice as it looks OOP.

Soon as the nit calls then raises turn, I'm chucking away non nut 2p alotttttt.

[cambridgealex]

interesting, i wonder who else folds a2-A5ss utg 6max?