Shove, call or fold the river?

[cambridgealex]

Villain has shown a tendancy to cbet/give up rather than fire multiple barrels. Is playing 21/18/6.4 from 7.5k hands, so pretty solid. We're playing 23/17/13 from 35 hands on this table. No particular dynamic or history with villain. We're $200 deep effective.

Preflop: Hero is CO with   
Hero raises to $6.00, 1 fold, Villain raises to $24.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $24.00
 
Flop: ($50.00)      (2 players)
Villain bets $25.00, Hero calls $25.00
 
Turn: ($100.00)       (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks
 
River: ($100.00)        (2 players)
Villain bets $60.00, Hero ? We have $155 back

Pre - fold? He's pretty tight but we're 4 handed so he'll be 3betting wider than usual and I love KQ. Much prefer peeling to 4betting, but maybe folding is best. I thought with my read that he gives up a lot after a cbet I could play this profitably ip.

Flop - I rep JT and 33 only by raising so think flatting is defo best. Then my plan was to fold the turn if he barrels a brick, check back if he checks and bet any river. OK?

Turn - he checks, stick with the plan, check back.

River - he has AK/AQ so often here and not much else, not sure on the # bluffs in his range. Could be a few Ax ss and random SCs but not many imo. I think calling is pretty bad. How about shove? We can rep KJ, KT, Tx dd and Q9 and he would probably fold AK. Fold the standard line I suppose...

Thoughts on this hand?

[chatban]

This is almost a mirror image (on the river [if you shove]) of the hand you posted where he did a cheeky range merge but you called because you had  . I think if i even had    i might consider jamming but i think is problem when we have no blocker to flush. I think sigh fold.

[cambridgealex]

There's equal combos of AK and AQ, so it's defo not working 50% of the time. And let's say he's folding AK 80% of the time. so when we shove it's gonna get through 40%, we're shoving 150 to win 100+60 so we're getting needs to work 48%

BUT he could also have KQ as well, and will fold that too, so perhaps it's +EV

[chatban]

There's equal combos of AK and AQ, so it's defo not working 50% of the time. And let's say he's folding AK 80% of the time. so when we shove it's gonna get through 40%, we're shoving 150 to win 100+60 so we're getting needs to work 48%

BUT he could also have KQ as well, and will fold that too, so perhaps it's +EV

Does he 3bet Jacks/tens ?? Not sure we cannot discount them?

[cambridgealex]

There's equal combos of AK and AQ, so it's defo not working 50% of the time. And let's say he's folding AK 80% of the time. so when we shove it's gonna get through 40%, we're shoving 150 to win 100+60 so we're getting needs to work 48%

BUT he could also have KQ as well, and will fold that too, so perhaps it's +EV

Does he 3bet Jacks/tens ?? Not sure we cannot discount them?

I'm sure he does, but discounted them when he checked the turn. Maybe he was setting the tarp but usually ppl like to get stacks in with houses rather than play them tricky/ hope i'm floating etc.

[Skippy]

I like raising the flop. Even if he reckons you've not got much, he's still going to give up with lots of his air, and when he calls you've got somewhere between lots and some equity.

A king looks like a good scare card on the end so I expect he might bluff when it comes down. So I'd look him up with top pair. Don't like folding, since I think you are ahead of his range, and raising turns your hand into a bluff, which seems daft with top pair.

That's my thoughts, anyhow.