Strange turn spot with bottom two vs reg

[cambridgealex]

Villain is 22/19/8.2 over 1500 hands, knows me as a reg, we have an aggressive dynamic, I rate him as being a pretty strong aggro reg. We're 100bbs deep.

Preflop: Hero is BB with   
1 fold, villain raises to $6.00, 3 folds, Hero calls $6.00
 
Flop: ($13.00)      (2 players)
Hero checks, villain checks
 
Turn: ($13.00)       (2 players)
Hero checks, villain bets $10.00, Hero raises to $26.00, villain raises to $56.00

I checked the turn because I expect him to check back that flop a lot, perhaps with hands as strong as AA. So I still think he has a strong range ott, and the turn hits lots of his flop give up air  like KQ, AK so expect him to bet it, and also I'm sort of giving him the green light to go ahead and vbet Jx, QQ+ and Kx. There's also a second flush draw ott. So I like my c/raise plan, but didn't expect to see him 3b the turn.

Now putting him on, KJ, KK and some airball/ diamond semi bluffs. Never has a straight/club fd or flopped set imo and doubt he'd raise pre with K8, K7 from MP. Value range pretty slim imo and our hand looks pretty bluffy. Don't think he's seen me c/r the turn on a board like this before.

What is our plan?

If call, what are we doing on these rivers (pot is 125, he'll have 135 back if we flat turn)

a) 
b) /
c) 
d) 

[mondatoo]

If you expect him to check back flop a lot as strong as AA surely we should donk this flop ?

Also be pretty suprised if that is true, even more so if you have an agg dynamic.

[mulhuzz]

If you expect him to check back flop a lot as strong as AA surely we should donk this flop ?

Also be pretty suprised if that is true, even more so if you have an agg dynamic.

I guess Alex means that villain will check back a lot on this flop because he doesn't want to get c/rd off the best hand and will therefore also check back hands as strong as AA for balance against an aggressive reg he expects to barrell almost all turns in the world when it goes c-c otf.

I probably jsut donk-call the turn though, since it should be perceived as a standard barrell spot for us (and he can float it without a hand/draw sometimes) and our perceived range is ultra-weak here with our hand being hugely underrepped by the time we go for two streets.

one we've check raised (which I don't think you're ever doing as a bluff? so seems unbalanced?) and he gives us the old clicksie backsies I think you're right. He's monsterously polarised.

What's fun ofc is that he always shoves the river either way if you call and check river, so that seems like my plan most of the time.

[chatban]

Im check calling any river I think.

Do you ever donk bet flops?

[SuuPRlim]

go all in imo and I think you've played the hand great.

[Patonius2000]

I think pre is too loose vs the player described, I'd prefer to 3b or fold. I'd lead the turn, you're missing a street vs 99 TT QJ AJ 8x and I doubt you get a c/r and a river bet anyway vs his bluffcatchers. Also loads of rivers you can't value bet and you end up putting yourself in a coffin. Perhaps C/c c/r bananas is an option? I think it's a pretty funky hand to have in your range. As played pretty happy about shipping it.

[skolsuper]

Monda's right if you think he's rarely cbetting this flop you ought to be donk leading all your strong hands and draws imo. I like to take the check flop, check-raise turn line vs regs with all sorts as it's not something that they come up against much so they tend to play pretty honest vs it imo. As it is I think you have put yourself in a very awkward spot by merging what should be a more polarised range, like Rob says I don't think you get value from many worse hands if he just calls your turn raise and a river barrel here. Basically you've overrepped your hand and now he's 3betting so I think it's probably a fold, although you are getting bluffed some small % of the time which sucks.

Disagree with the 3b or fold pre comment but only just, this and 67s are the absolute worst hands I would peel here.

[pleno1]

I think pre is close and this would be the worse hand I would call with.

Flop

Really like donking this flop and think its very very standard given the descriptions.

Turn

I much prefer bet turn, bet river as although its a good bluff card for him, I think he goes bet,check with far oo many of his showdown hands where we miss out $ on.

When I c/r here I want to c/r to about 32-34, I think peoples turn raises are in general far too small and a leak alot of small stakes players have.

As played, I call, he is repping super thin, although you expect him to check back AA I expect him to cbet KJ, and because of the position of the open he doesn't have k8,k7, in his range (will even fold KJo a decent % of the time) I think he is repping almost exactly KK when he clicks back the turn. So I call.

I definitely call on the river on any brick/low flush card as I don't see him 3b/folding a combo draw (most flush draws will have a combo draw on this board)  when we c/raise so small and he is in positions.

He had kings right?

[Mondeoman]

Dislike c/raising the turn a lot. Fold when he 3 bets the turn, I'd stake a large amount of money that you are beat here.
How I would play is I'd check flop (dislike donk leading this flop), I'd donk lead turn and spew if he raised......

General rule of thumb - Whenever a reg checks back a flop in position then seems to want to put their stack in on later streets they almost always have it.

[Mitch]

Dislike c/raising the turn a lot. Fold when he 3 bets the turn, I'd stake a large amount of money that you are beat here - aq probably.
How I would play is I'd check flop (dislike donk leading this flop), I'd donk lead turn and spew if he raised ( But I'd then call his turn raise and hit an 8 on the river then stack his nut straight)

General rule of thumb - Whenever a reg checks back a flop in position then seems to want to put their stack in on later streets they almost always have it.

Shit, yeah watch out for AQ Alex! Always lose with 2pair vs Ace high!

[Mondeoman]

Pretty childish to quote my posts then edit them Mitch - still I'll let you off as it's your birthday

[Mondeoman]

Actually having thought about it more and actually having read the board correctly this time he is only really repping kk, however I still think you're beat a lot of the time. I might peel the turn 3 bet and reavulate river although in reality I'm prob folding all rivers that don't give me a fh.

Your read on the reg is key if hes v good and knows his turn 3 bet doesn't rep much then he prob does have it but if he's a reg who is say 12 tabling and not really fully analysing every hand he might just be 3 betting a turned nut/combo draw.  Don't see much value in shoving turn - if you do you are basically doing it for protection and protection should very very rarely be the reason why you make a bet in Holdem.

Guess my main advice is don't raise turn in first place - apart from it just being bad on this board you want to keep some two pair type hands in your check calling range so you can't just get barrelled off hands and can also rep strong hands like full houses when you check raise rivers.

[pleno1]

if we take mondeomans line and c/call turn, we have to c/r/f brick rivers as the obly hand that beats a 7 and a 8 here is pocket kings.

I also agree that i dont like c/raising turn but think the sizing is a bigger mistake than the play.

I do disagree with mman about not liking to lead this board. In general yes, but we make  money by exploiting regs frequencies and tendancies and this is definitely a spot we will lose money in the long term.

[muckthenuts]

I'd bet flop

[SuuPRlim]

fwiw I'd fold preflop. I don't think these hands show a lot of scope for profit 100bigs deep OOP vs good players. 67s 87s 97s etc are all hands id classify as "just not good enough to peel" and use these as the "top" of my light 3betting range