Keith Elliott's suggestions for the last two days if anyone is interested. Strange to tip Mickelson and Sneds outright but Van Pelt in the Top US market.
THE US MASTERS - starts Thursday
The Tournament - This is the first Major of the year, and is the only one always held at the same course. The winner receives a green jacket presented to him by the previous year’s winner in the Augusta log cabin.
The Course - Augusta is now a 7,455 yard par 72 course that keeps evolving and in the last decade a second cut of rough has been added, fairways narrowed, and 450 yards added to its length. The Greens are lightning fast and provide a serious putting test.
Qualities required - Keeping out of trouble here is vitaland course experience is important. The par
are the key to a good score - the Big hitters can take a risk and go for the greens in two while the shorter hitters can play safe, lay up with their second shot and give themselves a birdie chance with good wedge play.
The three keys here are Accuracy, good course management and solid putting on these ultra fast greens.
The Field - A small field of 92 including the top 50 world ranked players, the specially invited Japanese teenager Ryo Ishikawa [to boost the TV audience], Amateur champions and past winners. The field includes 14 first timers.
The market - Tiger heads the market from Mcilroy, Mickelson and World No 1 Luke Donald.
Bookies - All are fully priced up and three make special offers.
* PP pay out on the first six places and win money back if Tiger wins.
* BO also pay out on the first six places.
* BS refund stakes if your selection finishes within 2 shots of the winner.
ANTE POST BET
10th FEB - RORY McILROY - FIVE POINTS WIN - 8/1 BF/TO, LA,
.
Rory has been our sole Ante Post bet.
Today 11 pts on 4 players at 13/2, 12/1, 18/1 + 33/1 and a half pt EW bet on an 80/1 outsider. Total 13 points.
NO 1 PICK - RORY McILROY - THREE POINTS WIN - 6/1 BS, B365, LA, WH, SKY 11/2 PP, BF/TO, 5/1 CO, SPBET, LA, WH - only 9/21 88BET.
1. This year Rory is a more mature man with a new girlfriend and a new management company, he was briefly World No 1 Player and after a break he arrives at Augusta in top form.
2. Last year here he played superbly for 3 rounds to lead by 3 shots before he imploded on Sunday with 80 in R4. However, he proved that he had learned from that experience when he went onto win the US Open unchallenged.
3. This year he is a much improved player. In USA in three starts he was 2nd in the World Matchplay, he won the Honda Classic, and was 3rd in the WGC/Cadillac,
4. His 2012 stats show the huge improvement in his short game as he is 3rd for Sand Saves, 1st for birdie conversion, and also 1st for scrambling, and he is still a player with a superb swing who has the extra length, the high ball flight, and the ability to draw [R-L] the ball that are all ideal for Augusta.
IN SUM - Tiger’s revival has taken the spotlight off Rory who I expect to win this week, and at PP’s 11/2 with 6 places, and money back if Tiger wins he looks a rock solid EW bet.
NO 2 PICK - LUKE DONALD - TWO POINTS EACH WAY - 18/1 BF, Tote; 16/1 PP, BS, LA, WH, B365, 14/1 GENERAL only 12/1 BS, CO.
1. Luke is in brilliant form. In his last two US starts he was 6th in the WGC/Cadillac and then won the Transitions knowing that if he did he’d become World No 1. His stroke average in those two events was 68.75
2. He has a superb short game - he’s 2nd for scrambling, 1st strokes gained putting, and he’s got an accurate long game although he’s not a huge hitter he still finished with rounds of 68-69-69 last year when T4th. Not a long hitter but he is such a good wedge player and brilliant putter [1st for putts per GIR last year] that he can handle the par
here well - indeed last year he had an eagle and was 9 under on the par
.
3. T3rd on his debut in 2005 he was T10th in 2007and T4th last year and he’s now built up a large bank of valuable Augusta experience.
4. After a brilliant 2011 when he was top of the Money lists on both sides of the Atlantic, and after 5 wins in the last 15 months he’s clearly in the form of his life.
IN SUM - Luke is consistency on stilts, he has all the tools to do the job and at 16/1 with 6 places he looks a crackin’ EW bet.
NO 3 PICK - PHIL MICKELSON - TWO POINTS WIN - 12/1 BS, BV, LA, WH, SKY - only 9/1 BF/TO.
1. Phil in the last 11 years has had 8 top
including 3 wins [2004, 2006 + 2010] he knows where he can put the ball, he can play amazing recovery shots, he has the length off the tee,and essentially when he ‘fails’ here it’s due to his putting.
2. This season, despite not putting too well last week at Houston, he has putted really well shown by being 2nd for strokes gained through putting, and he’s 7th for birdie conversion.
3. This season he won the AT+T and lost in a play off in the Nthn Trust Open and last week he was T4th.
IN SUM - Inspired by Tiger’s revival, in form, a course specialist with improved putting this year he must be a very serious contender.
JUSTIN ROSE - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 33/1 BO, BV, B365, CO, LA - only 25/1 SKY
1. Justin has won 4 times in USA since the start of 2010 incl the WGC/Cadillac last month since when he’s posted two top 15s.
2. He’s 7th on the All Round stats, his scoring av. if 69.26, he’s 16th GIR, and his off season work on his short game has worked as he’s improved 60 places in the scrambling rankings, and his shots gained through putting is up 26 places.
3. He clearly likes Augusta where in 6 starts he’s led 3 times after R1, once after R2, and he finished T5th in 2007. However, he’d never had the ‘bottle’ to really contend but after 4 wins in 27 months in the States, he’s proved he’s got greater mental strength.
4. Being ’Under the radar’ with all the attention on Luke, Rory, Lee, Phil +Tiger will suit Justin.
IN SUM - At 33/1 he looks a sound EW bet esp at BO.
BRANDT SNEDEKER - HALF POINT EACH WAY - 80/ 1PP, BO,
, SKY, BF/TO, SPBET - 66/1 CO, LA, BV.
1. Sneds has played at Augusta three times with 15th last year with 3 of his 4 round sunder par. and a 3rd on his 2008 debut when he was 2nd after R3 before shooting 77 in R4.
2. He has won 3 times on the USPGA Tour with two wins in the last 12 months - last year in the Heritage,a nd this year in the Farmers Insurance Open when we backed him.
IN SUM - He is a very good putter, a proven winner, he has solid Augusta form so at 80/1 he looks a sound EW bet.
Top US Player
BO VAN PELT - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 40/1 [1/4 odds 1-4] SKY, BF/TO, BO, 35/1 BS, PP - only 28/1 WH
1. Bo last year finished 8th at Augusta after a 69-68-70 [ie 9 under par] finish, he was under par on the par
, made two eagles [both in R4 on the 13th and 15th holes].
2. Since then he has had his first win in October in the CIMB Asia tournament, and this year he has been in really consistent form with form figs of 8-8-33-8-9-2 - that’s 5 top 10s in those 6 starts.
3. His stats in 2012 are very good - 1st for putts gained putting, 1st birdie average, and 4th on the All Round stats.
4. He withdrew from his last tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational [when one of our bets] with a slight knee problem but he should be OK now.
IN SUM - At 90/1 at PP + BO [1/4 odds 1-6] he’s an outsider with a ’squeak’. However he looks a better bet at 40/1 EW in this Top US player market — after all he’s in very good form and this bet was a nice EW winner last year when he was 2nd Top American.
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TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN PLAYER — 15 run
EDOARDO MOLINARI - HALF POINT EACH WAY - 16/1 LA, B365, CO [1/4 odds 1-3]
1. The Italian Ryder Cup player has played well in his last two ET tournaments when 11th in Andalucia and 6th in Morocco, and his last 7 rounds averaged 68.71.
2. This year his putting is better than in 2011 by a full shot per round.
3. Last year at Augusta he played well to finish T11th – he was 5th best for fewest bogeys, and his final 3 rounds were a solid 7 under par [70-69-70].
4. This year his driving has been his weakness but last year here he hit more fairways than the first, second and third.
IN SUM - He was 1st in this market last year and there’s no pressure on him as he’s very much ‘under the radar’ so he could well post another high finish in this market again this week.
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TOP DEBUTANT — 15 run
WEBB SIMPSON - TWO POINTS WIN - 10/3 CO, 3/1 SKY, BO,
, LA, SPBET, WH.
1. Webb had a superb 2011 with two big wins [and we backed him each time], and this year though not as impressive he has still posted 3 top tens.
2. He is a top class putter and this year he’s 3rd for birdie conversion, and his long putting (which will be so important at Augusta) is very good, as he is in the top 20 for putts both from 10-15 feet, and 20-25 feet, and he’s 4th for putts over 25 feet.
3. The ‘jolly’ in this market is Keegan Bradley but he’s ranked at 119th in proximity to the hole compared to Simpson’s 27th.
IN SUM - Webb’s occasional inaccuracy off the tee shouldn’t be a problem here and his excellent putting can enable him to be the Top Debutant.
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MATCH BET
LUKE DONALD to beat LEE WESTWOOD - FOUR POINTS WIN - 10/11 BV, 5/6 WH, BS, BO, B365
1. Lee is having his usual putting problems and it really is ‘getting to him’ as he showed when he hurled his putter into the ground after yet another missed putt last w/end in Houston.
2. Put simply Luke’s short game, putting, chipping and sand saves, are in a higher class than that of Westwood.
3. Last year here Luke had 102 putts to Lee’s 116; Luke beat Lee by 5 shots, and he can do so again this year.
IN SUM - This seems a sound match bet.
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