Live 1/3 at the Vic

[edgascoigne]

Game is live 1/3 at the Vic, playing 7 handed. I am playing c£500. I have been sheriff-ed by 4-4 on A23JT about 90mins previous when the game got going and mucked. Since then played snug. Villain is young, chinese, hasn't been seen out of line really.

4 limpers to my BB which I bump to 18 with AQo (no spades). 3 callers inc villain  in MP who covers.

Flop: Q34r (Pot is £73)

SB checks, we bet £45, villain is only caller.

Turn: Q34-8 (Two spades now, pot is £163)

We bet £95
Villain raises to £225

We have c£340 back and.....?

[BulldozerD]

Game is live 1/3 at the Vic, playing 7 handed. I am playing c£500. I have been sheriff-ed by 4-4 on A23JT about 90mins previous when the game got going and mucked. Since then played snug. Villain is young, chinese, hasn't been seen out of line really.

4 limpers to my BB which I bump to 18. 3 callers inc villain  in MP.

Flop: Q34r (Pot is £73)

SB checks, we bet £45, villain is only caller.

Turn: Q34-8 (Two spades now, pot is £163)

We bet £95
Villain raises to £225

We have c£340 back and.....?

probably a good time to look at your hole cards

[edgascoigne]

Good shout. Amended now.

[edgascoigne]

How much does he have back?

Villain covers.

[paulhouk03]

any of ur cards spades?

[edgascoigne]

any of ur cards spades?

Nope

[jgcblack]

In this spot the most obvious thought is "he's played it like a set"... however which cards are the spades?

I have seen people turn up here with tpgk + draw, so if the isnt out there then I would have this as a chunk of his range.. his sizing is nice, and allows us to call and re-evaluate I think.  There are plenty of sickos (myself included) that once they've set up this perfect pot size for a river shove they will bomb any river.. which may give you a great situation for a live read tptk call!

However you will also be shown Q8, 33, 44 a fair chunk too.. and a spade is unlikely to scare the set.

Live reads FTW!!!

[SuuPRlim]

Fold for me.

People semi-bluff here in live poker much much less than you'd expect them to.

I think he'll have precisely NEVER here, it would be a pretty terrible raise if he did, unless he expects you to fold AQ/KK/AA + I don't see how he can p[possibly have made that assumption.

[muckthenuts]

Like your sizing pre i think, maybe other live pros can elaborate on whether its good ot nor.

i find a fold. he plays QT this way about never. He has you beat like always, if he's bluffing wpwpwp but im happy tio fold

[edgascoigne]

Agree it's a fold. Couldn't find it in-game regrettably.

I assume we have no issue with raise pre - bet - bet as a line here? Just a question of reassessing once he raises the turn on a dry board?

[SuuPRlim]

your line is good but its a fold on the turn imo

[Skippy]

Something no one else has said is that it's 4 way to the flop, which greatly increases the chances of TPTK being no good.

It also reduces the chances (to 0 probably) of him having complete air. That leaves him with a range when he raises of hands where you're pretty much stone dead, and hands like pairs+spades that semi-bluff with a lot of equity. Against that range, it's looking bad.

[George2Loose]

Ur history with him suggests its less likely hes bluffing too imo

[edgascoigne]

Agree with all comments. Before I say this...it isn't meant in any way to belittle others' analysis.

It's incredible how easy such analysis is out of game time. All in the thread have reached the same conclusions through the same logic. Two minutes after the hand had played out I was 90% I had made a big error. That said, during the hand I was too wrapped up in the whole affair to pass, even when I 'knew' I was beat.

This is the aspect I struggle most with in poker - the emotion/excitement - and it is incredible how powerfully it can influence/overwhelm all logic. I do feel if I can get this sorted then I might have a half a chance of being not impossibly bad at the game!

Thx, Ed

[Matt.NFFC.]

What he have?  a set?