DTD £150 deepstack FT hand..

[youthnkzR]

FT of £150deepstack.. 5 handed.. blinds 40k/80k... Average stack ~1.3mil (ughhh)

Button who has just lost >half his stack 2 hands previous playing ~850k jams...

We have   in the SB (playing 1.1mil)...

what do we do?

(BB is nitty and has ~600k - deffinatly laddering imo and will even fold JJ here)

Would probably say we are the most 'clued up' player left, however ith a 16BB average - and only 1 player having this amount or more.. i dont think this factors.

[outragous76]

Its definately not a bad call from a maths and range point of view

However, Id prefer to the be shover and it sounds like you can absue the BB all day long - so therefore as described (and considering money jumps) - Id fold

[TightEnd]

Tom

Context is also useful, you'd started the final chip leader, not seen much and just lot a big pot same orbit to go down to the pack


fwiw, on commentary I said I thought i was a call given who was shoving, where from and their recent history

I was quickly disagreed with by Rob Yong, who this shallow wanted to be a shover not a caller for his last 10-13x bb, and didn't want to call off A-5 when at best you were a very marginal favourite

[rbolt2]

i think the main issue is that like it has already been said you are only going to be marginally ahead say 60 40 even if he has a reasonably trashy hand.

[Pinchop73]

60/40 is huge in a crapshoot.

[EvilPie]

60/40 is huge in a crapshoot.

I'd prefer to be first in the pot as a 40/60 + a load of FE than calling and being a 60/40 at best.

[cambridgealex]

definitely a fold

[Pugwashed]

Snap

[Pugwashed]

Actually, if you think people are folding way too much when you're shoving you could fold this

[Solaris]

Easy snap call.

UL.

[cambridgealex]

Easy snap call.

UL.

Disagree.

if he's shoving the top 50% you're 50.8% vs his range, top 75% you're 54%, 100% you're 57.6%.

Without ICM considerations it's a fold. With ICM considerations it's ridiculously trivial.

ICM doesn't even take into account the skill edge OP mentioned.

[Sulphur man]

I agree fully with Alex and think this is an easy fold i ran it through pokerstove also and the results as Alex posted are not that favourable
even v a player shoving 50% of hands.

ICM more for bubble spots no? Maybe you can start to think about icm more once we get to the last three players as the jumps are much
larger then with DTD pay structure. You are basically looking at 1st 32.5% 2nd 18.4% 3rd 11.5% 4th 8.0% 5th 6.5%.

With Antes each pot is 160000 leaving us an M of 6/7. We also have the button next hand so dont think we need to be to rash
and a better spot will come for us to get our chips in.


 

[youthnkzR]

Tom

Context is also useful, you'd started the final chip leader, not seen much and just lot a big pot same orbit to go down to the pack


fwiw, on commentary I said I thought i was a call given who was shoving, where from and their recent history

I was quickly disagreed with by Rob Yong, who this shallow wanted to be a shover not a caller for his last 10-13x bb, and didn't want to call off A-5 when at best you were a very marginal favourite

haha aye like you and rob, ive also had alot of mixed reviews from others, thats why i decided to post it. Its one of the worst, if not the worst spot ive ever been put in whilst playing this horrible game haha. I was fairly confident i was ahead (massivly ahead of his range) - even if only as a 60% fav.. however my reason for choosing to take this 'flip' was that i had no intention on doing a deal whilst at the final table and also felt that in order to win, given the 'shit-shooty' structue at that time, i had to get it in, even if only as a marginal favourite - as i then felt i could possibly start running the table over - given the people laddering. (Possibly havent explained this in the best possible way but it all comes down to me playing to win the tournament rather then ladder).

side note: great coverage of the tourney dude, enjoyed re-reading the updates

[MANTIS01]

Tom

Context is also useful, you'd started the final chip leader, not seen much and just lot a big pot same orbit to go down to the pack


fwiw, on commentary I said I thought i was a call given who was shoving, where from and their recent history

I was quickly disagreed with by Rob Yong, who this shallow wanted to be a shover not a caller for his last 10-13x bb, and didn't want to call off A-5 when at best you were a very marginal favourite

haha aye like you and rob, ive also had alot of mixed reviews from others, thats why i decided to post it. Its one of the worst, if not the worst spot ive ever been put in whilst playing this horrible game haha. I was fairly confident i was ahead (massivly ahead of his range) - even if only as a 60% fav.. however my reason for choosing to take this 'flip' was that i had no intention on doing a deal whilst at the final table and also felt that in order to win, given the 'shit-shooty' structue at that time, i had to get it in, even if only as a marginal favourite - as i then felt i could possibly start running the table over - given the people laddering. (Possibly havent explained this in the best possible way but it all comes down to me playing to win the tournament rather then ladder).

side note: great coverage of the tourney dude, enjoyed re-reading the updates

If you are most clued up person at the table it means your oppos are going to be making more mistakes than you. When you call all-in for a flip you aren't forcing your oppos to make mistakes you are allowing them to freeroll your ability with a flip coup which suits them more than you. With identified weak laddering oppos behind pushing is much better than calling and I do a fold. Button oppo hasn't made a mistake by jamming so fair play sigh fold imo. Perhaps minor tilt in taking on marginal gamble after losing chunk and being card dead?

[smashedagain]

I agree fully with Alex and think this is an easy fold i ran it through pokerstove also and the results as Alex posted are not that favourable
even v a player shoving 50% of hands.

ICM more for bubble spots no? Maybe you can start to think about icm more once we get to the last three players as the jumps are much
larger then with DTD pay structure. You are basically looking at 1st 32.5% 2nd 18.4% 3rd 11.5% 4th 8.0% 5th 6.5%.

With Antes each pot is 160000 leaving us an M of 6/7. We also have the button next hand so dont think we need to be to rash
and a better spot will come for us to get our chips in.


 

Nice post Will. Really missing you at Dtd. Are you gonna be playing there soon?