Rivered two pair facing small check raise

[cambridgealex]

Preflop: Hero is UTG with  playing $209
Hero  raises to $7.00, 2 folds, Lizette0 calls $7.00, 1 fold, phishalert calls $7.00
 
Flop: ($22.00)      (3 players) phishalert checks, Hero bets $14.00, 1 fold, phishalert calls $14.00
 
Turn: ($50.00)       (2 players) phishalert checks, Hero  checks
 
River: ($50.00)        (2 players) phishalert checks, Hero  bets $32.00, phishalert raises to $70.00, Hero?

Pre is close, I'd fold sometimes, it's probably one of the worst hands I'd be opening utg. Flop is standard. Bet the turn? Get folds from maybe 88-TT and better 7x? Anyway, we check and make a standard value bet on the river when checked to. Villain makes a small c/r. Call or fold? Don't have enough hands on villain really to have any reads, 130, over which he's playing 23/20/14, so I'd assume he was a reg.

Our range is capped at 99 and Q9, 97 i guess, so if I fold then i'm folding everything? I just don't know what level villain is on, it's a small c/r looks like he wants to get called, but I can't ever have a really strong hand and he can. I think it's really close/gross...thoughts?

[muckthenuts]

Learnt this lesson the hard way and would fold pre. Definitely agree you need to balance your utg range with some weaker hands but 97s seems a little too trashy for this to flop well enough often and probably isn't gonna show a profit from this position in the long run. 

I'd fold river and just assume he has it here. Not enough of a read yet to give him credit that he'd be aware we're capped and realises this is a good spot to turn stuff into bluffs, and if even he is good enough to do so he should play KQo this way too as well as flushes and sets making his value range potentially quite wide. Mostly though i'd assume he's a random who's got there and now tried to tarp me. We are purely bluffcatching obv there's nothing in his value range we can beat.

[Pugwashed]

I think I might fold river but it sucks cos it seems like a decent spot for villain to be turning everything that can't call into a bluff as he can have flushes / sets/ KQ and you're range is capped

I think I might barrel the turn here, I think you can get enough folds form the hands you mentioned and you do get some good rivers to fire again (but when he calls the turn his range might be too strong to make firing even the best rivers good)

[SuuPRlim]

I think I might fold river but it sucks cos it seems like a decent spot for villain to be turning everything that can't call into a bluff as he can have flushes / sets/ KQ and you're range is capped

I think I might barrel the turn here, I think you can get enough folds form the hands you mentioned and you do get some good rivers to fire again (but when he calls the turn his range might be too strong to make firing even the best rivers good)

gd post.

[Skippy]

I thought about this on the way to the supermarket and one thing that has not been mentioned yet is that he has decided to check-raise the river, rather than just bet at it, when betting seems pretty reasonable. 

So far, you've raised pre, and c-bet, and not turn-c-bet. If you are the villain and you've got a really big hand, is a check-raise a better play EV-wise rather than just betting the river? Only Alex knows how often he is bluffing when he gets to the river holding  ., but his range is pretty weak after he checks back the turn- he'd bet a K+ again on a flushing, somewhat connected board surely (right?). If I'm the villain and I've got KQ, or 44, or 99, which I think I could have on the river, I think I'd be better off just betting and hopefully get called by a bare Q or something.

On the other hand, if I've got nothing, and I get to the river, it looks like Alex has got nada. He's not got a K, or 74 (since I think he'd bet the turn) and the only really big hands he could have are backdoor hands (a backdoor flush, or 97, K9, 94, Q9- and how many of these does he play UTG?). So his betting range consists of few really good hands, lots of bluffs and some thin value bets (like QJ, or QT). I might feel I can bluff him off these with a check raise.

So in conclusion, I think Alex is good enough of the time to call.

[Whollyflush]

Calling seems really bad. Villian doesnt have enough air in his range and i guess its a question of the frequency with which he turns 88/tt/A7s into a bluff. Given he thinks his hand isn't good enough to c/c the river, why would he c/r so small given you a good price with a better 1 pair hand? i actually prefer jamming than calling (as a bluff obv) as his range is actually more capped than ours presuming you don't auto-barrel every turned draw, also theres no way he would know the frequencies of this anyway. I'd fold obviously against most players.

[Whollyflush]

results?

[cambridgealex]

results?

I got an earful from Keith after folding....

[WotRTheChances]

It's pretty close, but if villain is unknown I've seen enough of the player pool on that site to think the average reg on there generally isnt good enough to be turning a bunch of his range into bluffs here, which he definitely should given your range. The better villain is the more likely I am to call here....

If I were on one of my 5knl sessions, would snap obv 

[skolsuper]

It's a fold imo and tbh it's probably not close, although if I'm honest I doubt I actually make it. Bet-check-bet is usually a value line and I doubt many villains would be expecting a fold from a random here very often, the only thing is the good odds you are getting and the somewhat disguised strength of your hand. Feeling confused I would probably fall back on game theory and ask myself whether I actually have the top of my range here or whether I would often check back a flush draw on the turn. We can go one better if we can guess at our perceived range, for that I would look at if villain is the type to barrel a flush draw on the turn (people usually project their own tendencies onto others), but obviously we don't have enough hands on villain for this, so the best we can do is think about what the average player in these games (these stakes on this network) is like. If everyone is going barrel crazy all the time and it's likely villain will assume you have nothing as soon as you check back the turn then you have to call, otherwise I would say this is a fold. On reflection, because everyone always barrels backdoor equity, we probably are at the top of our range here and folding is very exploitable so at least I can argue that my crying call is justified, however you are probably still beat.

[SuuPRlim]

It's a fold imo and tbh it's probably not close.

+1.

he c/c a dry board and you cap you percieved "made hand" range OTT, you can for sure chk back FD's but you don't have AA, AK, KQ, 77, KK, 44 an most likely not KJs either. the made hands he'll turn into bluffs is basically anything that can't beat a 9, so 88, 56 and 7x. If he's a reasonable player his 7x combo's for peeling a UTG open are pretty narrow, 78s, 67s, 79s etc and there are only two combo's of each and it's defo to be assumed he will fold these hands a decent % OTR (I think the times he bluffs his 7x's will be in place of times he calls and like JP says we have no way at all to know those frequencies so it's complete guesswork)

basically, imo he doesn't have a wide enough range that can bluff and the frequency with which he turns his bluff catchers into bluffs is debatably small.

[Mondeoman]

results?

I got an earful from Keith after folding....

Wasn't saying you should call but i was trying to make you aware that its potentially exploitable to be folding in this spot. 
Challenging you as to why you folded is my excellent coaching technique (stolen from the useless middle managers i used to work for) which allows me to say nothing of use but encourages you to think about the hand - you then work through the hand yourself/justify your actions etc and i just nod sagely. 

[SuuPRlim]

results?

I got an earful from Keith after folding....

Wasn't saying you should call but i was trying to make you aware that its potentially exploitable to be folding in this spot. 
Challenging you as to why you folded is my excellent coaching technique (stolen from the useless middle managers i used to work for) which allows me to say nothing of use but encourages you to think about the hand - you then work through the hand yourself/justify your actions etc and i just nod sagely. 

Keith's the best

[cambridgealex]

Keith you're either totally full of shit or you're a genius. I can never quite work it out...