Live .5/1- Raised on the flop:- Go mental?

[rfgqqabc]

Everyone is pretty deep on the table. Villain is a good player, one of the best in the .5/1 live game, but no real online experience, learning to play well but not complete yet, who is though. He is also running super well, and playing his best.

I have 

Guy limps playing 900, I'm playing ~300 and Villain is playing 800 as well. I make it 7, V flats and Guy flats. Flop is  . Guy checks, I bet 15 and Villain makes it 50 pretty quickly. Guy folds. 

I felt like he looked somewhat uncomfortable, and it was pretty  quick for the player himself. I have such an awkward stack size to call, but his range is weighted way towards, F/ds, Ax hands, and then nut hands like AT/77 and also never has AK/AQ here, and has 3bet me recently and shown down AJo in a 3bet pot co vs btn. He 3bets only a value range, ie more likely to 3bet 88 than Q5s.

Can i shove profitably with the gutterball here or is the stack size not right? Or is the play just tez. Not quite sure, I have about 270 total behind so its a pretty big raise, and possibly something I wouldn't do with a monster here. Winning a ton on the night too, like 600 up. Mental?

Folded like a pussy but it feels really close, and I rarely do much post vs him oop. I've tightened up noticeably lately and he prob knows this.

[david3103]

Call - KJ is a really lucky hand for you... especially if villain has KQ spades....

 

[SuuPRlim]

fold. you just don't have enough equity to make a move here imo, if the flop was T97 or something then it'd be a lot different.

shoving would have been a big spew imo

[Whollyflush]

i like calling you can get funky on spade turns and theres a variety of things that can happen when you take to the streets.

[cambridgealex]

Surely not this deep?

[rfgqqabc]

Surely not this deep?

That's why I didn't shove, but its such a good spot between the speed of the action and the capped nature of his range so y'at stack size is good? 190 behind?

[Whollyflush]

Surely not this deep?

looking at stacks we might be abit to shallow, its quite close i'd probably fold but i don't hate jamming.

[Rivertony]

I'd fold but shoving wouldn't be the worst

[SuuPRlim]

take to the streets.

<3 this expression!

[rfgqqabc]

Any more thoughts on this? Keeps going through my head and i just can't see enough off his range calling for it to be -ev. I was hoping someone would make this easy but i guess I'll have to get calculator out myself and have a look.

[SuuPRlim]

Any more thoughts on this? Keeps going through my head and i just can't see enough off his range calling for it to be -ev. I was hoping someone would make this easy but i guess I'll have to get calculator out myself and have a look.

its a live 9handed game. jamming in these spots is so bad for your hourly. if you want the variance then gl.

as for the profit in the jam, get odds oracle from pro poker tools, thre is a shove equity calculator on there which is really good, you give him a flop range and then enter what from that range calls and it'll give you an EV of the jam. Failing this try flopzilla which will tell you what hands from your range you should jam as a bluff etc.

This still doesn't deter from the fact that in FR live games its extremely hard to make profit from these plays, people make wierd raises and call offs we can't factor for.

[rfgqqabc]

Any more thoughts on this? Keeps going through my head and i just can't see enough off his range calling for it to be -ev. I was hoping someone would make this easy but i guess I'll have to get calculator out myself and have a look.

its a live 9handed game. jamming in these spots is so bad for your hourly. if you want the variance then gl.

as for the profit in the jam, get odds oracle from pro poker tools, thre is a shove equity calculator on there which is really good, you give him a flop range and then enter what from that range calls and it'll give you an EV of the jam. Failing this try flopzilla which will tell you what hands from your range you should jam as a bluff etc.

This still doesn't deter from the fact that in FR live games its extremely hard to make profit from these plays, people make wierd raises and call offs we can't factor for.

I know his game so well though, so i can define his ranges v. well and he doesn't really understand mine at all. So many good factors but def variance there too. Thanks for the sites etc

edit: That sounded ungrateful in my head second time around, not sure why. Cheers man

[SuuPRlim]

if you post his flop ranges here i'll put it into shove equity calc for you.

I don't doubt you know all this stuff v well, so why not wait till you have a better hand and set about exploiting him then, you have a really terrible hand here you'll have a better one pretty often. perhaps im getting nitty in my old age lol but i've made so many plays like this in my time and I know I never do it live anymore

[rfgqqabc]

Sorry to finally get back to this, but with all the flopzilla talk lately I couldn't resist.

Do you want his flop range for fold/call/raise?

Just raise? Need any preflop stuff?

[rfgqqabc]

Preflop he peels with:

AJ-A9o
AJ-A2s
KQ-KTs
QJ-Q9s
JTs-J9s
T9s(T8 sometimes)
98s
87s
76s
99-22

He 3bets TT+ all the time, might 3bet 99 here, probably not. He 3bets AQ+ everytime, can 3bet AJ. Not sure if he is 3betting AJo or AJs or not real strategy there.
I expect him to raise all AsXs hands, as well as sets, 98ss, J9ss, QJss, AT/A7. I'd also expect him to raise AJ-A9 here, and maybe even weaker as i don't think hes comfortable calling down, so would raise and fold to a shove. I expect him to raise Tx hands sometimes (10% maybe) and i expect him to raise some bare flushdraws like Q9ss, 65ss sometimes and fold to a shove.



I had a crack at it, and presuming i got everything right, the shove is slightly below breakeven now, but becomes plus ev with smaller stack sizes,


I love combinatorics in the morning!