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| | | |-+  Life as a professional staker - Mr Z's diary
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Author Topic: Life as a professional staker - Mr Z's diary  (Read 3104 times)
skolsuper
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2012, 03:58:24 PM »

TY Mr Z
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smashedagain
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if you are gonna kiss arse you have to do it right


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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2012, 04:40:04 PM »

Following this thread.
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nirvana
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2012, 06:56:05 PM »

how is the 'basis' figure decided?

Sorry for slow replies but I have a life outside of staking - today it involved a lot of par, par, par after 18 months without swinging a club. Totes crushed Chompy's & Galloway's spirits so much they begged to buy out our bets on the 15th.

Basis could be summed up as my expert view of general +EV in any comp. This is formed from track record, personal experience and a fine eye for good poker players. Only a coupla weeks ago I expressed surprise that Tommy Langley finished so low in the £500 (9th IIRC), the next week he won the £770.

I formed this opinion from a few hours watching him in the £150. He busted, I obv cashed and should've won. But the point is, in that coupla hours not difficult to see he was an outstanding player. Most people would just think splashy young kid, but that's what sets experts like me apart - would probs gain 1.24 basis right now.
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nirvana
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« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2012, 07:00:58 PM »

What factors go into the "Market Economics" Calculation?

Supply/Demand is the essential heart of this factor. A complex quadratic inlcuding my perspective on likelihood of selling out, speed of selling out. There are other factors but I like to think these are part of what gives me an edge so prefer not to go too much into this just now.
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kinboshi
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2012, 07:27:50 PM »

Great thread.  We can learn a lot from this, if only I'd seen it before agreeing to stake the kebab-muncher at 1.4... Sad
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
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