Buying sh!t - Way of the Nit

[superwomble]

Stats and form point to all 3 winning, but I have gone for Italy to beat Ireland at 1.44.

[millidonk]

1.44 is a decent enough price, although am a bit worried as Ireland have nothing to play for, so they might just go for it, they might be really relaxed and scrape a random bink, or they might give a load of non starters a run out. I'm still undecided.

[Graham C]

Italy need to win though no?  If Ireland couldn't be arsed to win when they needed to, I don't see why they'd bother now.  Seems like free money to money

#famouslastwordssorrywomble

[millidonk]

I guess it gives me something to sweat. £100 on @1.43

Come on the

[superwomble]

lol milli - GL us!

[MahoganyVic]

Back on board today. italy are a huge price @ 1.44

£100 on em.

Target £400 for a cross trainer

[Graham C]

lolz, just trying my Laying sh!t, the way of the nit in a horsey race, only went and won at 6/1 didn't it!  Sods law, I'm shit and backing horses to win, I can't even lay one at the moment!  Could be a painful process this

[superwomble]

ul silo!

Although if you are laying sh!t the way of the nit isn't the idea to lay really short-priced horses?

[Graham C]

ul silo!

Although if you are laying sh!t the way of the nit isn't the idea to lay really short-priced horses?

Just laying what I don't think will win/place.  Money is money, I don't know enough about it to pick out horses that the market has wrong.   I do know that if there's an odds on horse in a race then then a few at 5/1, then the 10/1 horse shouldn't be placing.  That's my strategy, it's probably not fallible

Only picking horses as there's so many in a day, I probably shouldn't get involved with them.  If I can break even today, I'll stick with footy.

Anyway, Rutterkin place laid in the next at Carlisle

[superwomble]

GL!

[millidonk]

Defo better off doing a bit of research and laying short price favs imo.

Failing that, ask Eso what he is on that day and you have a couple of guranteed lays right there.

[superwomble]

Have had a quick look at laying favourites - only quick so this might all be balls but is there value in this plan?

Over the last 4 days I have looked at 169 races. Of those 169 the favourite won 56 - 33%.

Even if the average price of the favourite is 4/7 (most are much less than this) if we had laid the favourite for a stake of £4 in each race (a liability of £7) we would be up £60 (before commission).

This looks too easy. I guess the sample size is small but I must be missing something.

[millidonk]

I was under the impression it was pretty much that simple, you just need to be rolled to take the swings when you get 90% of favs winning for a week. Could also put in a caveat like never lay anything above 2/1 etc.

Oooooooh, we could be going in a new direction. Nits turn Bookie.

[Graham C]

Defo better off doing a bit of research and laying short price favs imo.

Failing that, ask Eso what he is on that day and you have a couple of guranteed lays right there.

lol, may end up doing that!

I laid the fave in the last race at Wolves so I'm back up (lol) to £11.72, "winning" that first race cost me best part of my £20 bullet so I continued small.

I'm not sure I can get involved with the horses, in theory it should be easy - pick one to not  win out of XX runners, but I don't have deep enough pockets to lay 20/1's and to place lay them, well, when it's 3 places and there's only 6 in the race  I just don't know.  Everyone says you don't make money long term in betting, chosing the sport of degens is probably not a great idea.

Lol, I'm such a pussy.  

Interesting info Womble, perhaps laying faves is the future

[Graham C]

Need to think about this a bit more, a bet for now, Italy -1, £11.72 at 1.71.