Might have to do some analysis on the winning/losing bets ITT. Wonder if away games should be swerved. Or maybe stop betting on obscure foreign football...
I have done some analysis, hopefully it will provide a bit of a morale boost.
I have only looked at straightforward football bets (so no overs, unders etc.) and only looked at bets that meet the thread's rules of under evens.
We have made 53 bets that match the criteria above (I may have missed a couple in the wealth of posts, but I don't think it would affect the results much).
36 winning bets – 68% success rate.
16 losing bets (1 was a draw with a DNB bet)
Of the 16 losing bets 9 were draws.
36 bets on home wins (plus 1 home halftime/FT, which won).
25 home winning bets – 69% success rate.
15 bets on away wins.
10 away winning bets – 67% success rate.
40 bets on well-known leagues.
27 winning bets – 67.5% success rate.
13 bets on obscure leagues.
9 winning bets – 69% success rate.
Average odds 1.5
Average winning odds 1.59
Average losing odds 1.79
So, we are winning more than half the time, but not enough more than half the time to keep our runs going for long enough.
However, recent form has been worse than earlier form. Our first 38 bets only had 8 losers (21%), yet our last 15 bets have also had 8 losers (53%).
What has been going wrong in the more recent bets? Well I think in general we have been unlucky. Of those 8 losers 5 of them were real upsets. Of the other 3 one was a tip from Girgy85 that didn’t look a good prospect at the time due to form, one was a relegation battle, and one was between two teams in poor form and could have gone either way (and indeed was a draw).
So I think we just need to keep on keeping on – we are doing the right things, and have just been unlucky recently. The form before the bad luck was great, and that’s when we were hitting our targets. Get back to that form and we will be hitting them again!
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