Hero Call or Donkey Call?

[MANTIS01]

All things considered in op not sure I would be opening this hand at all

[cambridgealex]

Right well im no expert but ICM calculations can only be done when you are actually in the money so assume they are only relevent when you are in the money/on the bubble.  They are designed for sit and go's and later stages of MTTs.  A decision you make not to stick it in on a 50/50 in say level one of a tournament is not an ICM decision its about preserving your tournament life because you think better spots will arise later in the tournament (this is not what ICM is - ICM is making decisions based on the fact that chip equity does not directly correlate to $ equity).

To me they are sort of the same thing though - maybe I'm being thick, but we're folding 22 for our tournament life in level one because we our chip equity doesn't directly correlate to the $ equity. I.e. It costs £100 to enter, our cEV doesn't double to £200 when we double up, however it does = 0 when we bust.

Why can you not make ICM calculations when you're not in the money? You're chips always have a monetary value regardless of how many people left.

[Pugwashed]

Right well im no expert but ICM calculations can only be done when you are actually in the money so assume they are only relevent when you are in the money/on the bubble.  They are designed for sit and go's and later stages of MTTs.  A decision you make not to stick it in on a 50/50 in say level one of a tournament is not an ICM decision its about preserving your tournament life because you think better spots will arise later in the tournament (this is not what ICM is - ICM is making decisions based on the fact that chip equity does not directly correlate to $ equity).

To me they are sort of the same thing though - maybe I'm being thick, but we're folding 22 for our tournament life in level one because we our chip equity doesn't directly correlate to the $ equity. I.e. It costs £100 to enter, our cEV doesn't double to £200 when we double up, however it does = 0 when we bust.

Why can you not make ICM calculations when you're not in the money? You're chips always have a monetary value regardless of how many people left.

You're completely right imo. Even if you aren't in the money or near the money, if you have an edge then there can be a huge amount of value in just preserving your tournament life in super marginally +cEV spots and even spots that are +ICMEV can become folds if you have an edge and can likely find better spots

[cambridgealex]

Right well im no expert but ICM calculations can only be done when you are actually in the money so assume they are only relevent when you are in the money/on the bubble.  They are designed for sit and go's and later stages of MTTs.  A decision you make not to stick it in on a 50/50 in say level one of a tournament is not an ICM decision its about preserving your tournament life because you think better spots will arise later in the tournament (this is not what ICM is - ICM is making decisions based on the fact that chip equity does not directly correlate to $ equity).

To me they are sort of the same thing though - maybe I'm being thick, but we're folding 22 for our tournament life in level one because we our chip equity doesn't directly correlate to the $ equity. I.e. It costs £100 to enter, our cEV doesn't double to £200 when we double up, however it does = 0 when we bust.

Why can you not make ICM calculations when you're not in the money? You're chips always have a monetary value regardless of how many people left.

You're completely right imo. Even if you aren't in the money or near the money, if you have an edge then there can be a huge amount of value in just preserving your tournament life in super marginally +cEV spots and even spots that are +ICMEV can become folds if you have an edge and can likely find better spots

Yeh but maybe Keith's saying that's not strictly the same as ICM

[Pugwashed]

Yeah, but I meant that it still affects the decisions you make in the same way that ICM does and can be thought of in the same way even if it can't be modelled mathematically in the same way that ICM can (and even modelling that correctly becomes sketchy when you have more than a few players or there are big edges either way). Maybe this whole discussion is purely semantic

[TheFallen]

Right well im no expert but ICM calculations can only be done when you are actually in the money so assume they are only relevent when you are in the money/on the bubble.  They are designed for sit and go's and later stages of MTTs.  A decision you make not to stick it in on a 50/50 in say level one of a tournament is not an ICM decision its about preserving your tournament life because you think better spots will arise later in the tournament (this is not what ICM is - ICM is making decisions based on the fact that chip equity does not directly correlate to $ equity).

To me they are sort of the same thing though - maybe I'm being thick, but we're folding 22 for our tournament life in level one because we our chip equity doesn't directly correlate to the $ equity. I.e. It costs £100 to enter, our cEV doesn't double to £200 when we double up, however it does = 0 when we bust.

Why can you not make ICM calculations when you're not in the money? You're chips always have a monetary value regardless of how many people left.

You're completely right imo. Even if you aren't in the money or near the money, if you have an edge then there can be a huge amount of value in just preserving your tournament life in super marginally +cEV spots and even spots that are +ICMEV can become folds if you have an edge and can likely find better spots

Yeh but maybe Keith's saying that's not strictly the same as ICM

icm is a fairly strict mathematical model based around payouts and chips in play. Guessing an edge and hypothesising that there will be a future, more +ev spot to exercise said edge is not scientific.

Purely ICM based answers are often wrong because of the 'preserve tourny life' stuff so they are not really the same. ICM doesnt care who any of the players are or if anyone has a skill edge.

[AceOnTheRiver]

All things considered in op not sure I would be opening this hand at all

Your saying I should fold  in the C/O in an unopened pot in this situation?

Can you explain why? I'm assuming you wouldn't always fold that hand it the c/o and that there are plenty of situations when you wouild open with it?

[EvilPie]

All things considered in op not sure I would be opening this hand at all

Your saying I should fold  in the C/O in an unopened pot in this situation?

Can you explain why? I'm assuming you wouldn't always fold that hand it the c/o and that there are plenty of situations when you wouild open with it?

Don't bother asking him to explain it. Whatever reason he comes up with will be wrong.

Folding A9 in the cut off is a ridiculous suggestion.

As for the hand itself it's a pretty trivial fold given these stacks. If oppo turns his hands face up it's a call but hardly a happy one.

Calling range for me here would be 99+, AQ+

Raise pre should also be much less as has already been stated.

[Mondeoman]

The difference is pretty much what thefallen said.  An ICM decision/calculation will be directly affected by the payout structure i.e. if its top heavy or not etc etc but when youre sat there with 22 pondering a call all in at level 1 after youre opponent has exposed ak, you don't fold because of the payout structure you fold cos you want to hang around in the tournament a bit longer and you think you have an edge which you can exploit at a later point. 
Youre right in that the same principles apply throughout a tournament i.e. doubling up isnt as good as going bust is bad but to just bandy around the term ICM for any decision where preserving your chip stack is important is wrong.  Anyway thats my last post on the subject - im getting out before a real expert comes along and tells me im talking rubbish.

[cambridgealex]

The difference is pretty much what thefallen said.  An ICM decision/calculation will be directly affected by the payout structure i.e. if its top heavy or not etc etc but when youre sat there with 22 pondering a call all in at level 1 after youre opponent has exposed ak, you don't fold because of the payout structure you fold cos you want to hang around in the tournament a bit longer and you think you have an edge which you can exploit at a later point. 
Youre right in that the same principles apply throughout a tournament i.e. doubling up isnt as good as going bust is bad but to just bandy around the term ICM for any decision where preserving your chip stack is important is wrong.  Anyway thats my last post on the subject - im getting out before a real expert comes along and tells me im talking rubbish.

OK cheers Keith.

No more bandying about from me!

[Rod]

My 2 cents on this

I think you are negating your own skill edge over this field. Generally the APAT field plays too tight at this stage of a tournament so I would suggest unless you have definite reason to think otherwise you should give this 3bet shove a lot of respect. I can't see a reason to think otherwise based on what we have seen so far. The fact you have had to fold to a few raises makes not a lot of difference here, people still just sit and wait for a hand to "catch you" with. This is the stage of an APAT where you should be trying to pick up cheap pots especially with your stack, min raises do the job most of the time, you will get the odd person who thinks they are priced in but they will usually just fold to a cbet. So just make lot's of little raises and fold when there is resistance generally, obviously there are players in the fields that you need to be a bit more clever about but you know them as well.

When he re-shoves on you I can't see what he can have that you are miles ahead of which is why you fold. Personally I would fold if he showed me his hand, although reading through the thread it looks like that might be a bit of a mistake. My callling range is TT+ and AQ+ as these hands dominate quite a bit of his re-shoving range (and I don't love TT or AQ here). As it is when you call what you got is just about the best case scenario, however to be honest I think it is a bad call.

I don't mind 3-bet shoving A9 at all against the right players but hate calling all-in with it when you are more than capable of getting back the chips you lose from your small raise with interest over the next few orbit's. Even if you see his hand, no need to take what is a massive flip and more often than not the situation will be a whole lot worse in this situation.

[MANTIS01]

All things considered in op not sure I would be opening this hand at all

Your saying I should fold  in the C/O in an unopened pot in this situation?

Can you explain why? I'm assuming you wouldn't always fold that hand it the c/o and that there are plenty of situations when you wouild open with it?

In the last 20 hands or so you've been bashed up a bit having faced big 3bets on several occasions damaging your stack. You are seen as the most active player at the table. Add to this it’s the last hour so people will be looking for good gambling spots. A9 isn’t turning some massive profit for you in this specific spot. Seems rocking up a little is good advice for you. Sorry if this is wrong thou. 

[AceOnTheRiver]

I see mantis although to be fair one bit of info I did miss was that my stack had increased in the last 2 orbits having picked up a couple of decent sized pots which more than compensated for those three raise-folds.

On reflection I think I am always opening (although for less) and folding here and I'm going to read up on ICM too.

ty