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Poker Hand Analysis
UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
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Topic: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away? (Read 3536 times)
bobAlike
Hero Member
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Posts: 5823
UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
on:
April 11, 2012, 03:22:45 PM »
Hero 1550
Villain 1700
@50/100 no antes
Villain is Gary Banks (unknown to me) sitting on my immediate left
Fairly passive table with only the villain 3 betting with any frequency. Not seen any of his 3 betting holdings.
Hero raises 300 late position KJo
Villain 3bets to 875
Probably should fold/raise here but thought I'd see the flop
Hero call
Flop - 2 6 j with 2 hearts
Hero Check
Villain 900
Hero 3 bet to 2k
Villain call
Turn - J (non heart)
Hero bets to 2k
Villain calls fairly quickly
River - 10 (non heart)
Hero check to induce bet
Villain all in
Call
Villain turns over TT
I understand I played pre flop wrong but can I get away at the end?
How would you have played it differently?
Flame away
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Ah! The element of surprise
pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 18912
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #1 on:
April 11, 2012, 03:39:35 PM »
calling pre is really bad, we are often dominated and have huge reverse implied odds. see this post I made on Leathermans blog.
Quote from: pleno1 on April 10, 2012, 01:53:15 AM
hi mate,
nice idea of a thread. Try and not look at hands and want to see flops and instead take a more aggresive approach to the game that will see us slowly increase our stack whilst building a dynamic so we can get a big double when we are at the top of our range.
Calling utg opens with qjo is going to be a mistake because basically we are going to be dominated a large percentage of the time when we hit top pair and i cant really think of many spots where we are comfortable wagering chips on multiple streets. Really try and think about ranges rather than actual cards, i.e qj is dominated by a utg raise so im going to fold. The opposite of this would be a cut off opens and we have a7 on the button we can 3bet here and win the pot instead of playing a pot with a hand that doesnt play very well but is almost certainly ahead of his range. If we had qj here we would be more inclined to flat because we dominate hands like q8s that may try to steal the blinds and we have implied odds vs them when we both flop top pair.
on the flop we should just start calling down, raising can put us in so much trouble.
on the turn we should either continuing to look like we are bluffing and bet 4k~ as he will expect us to be on a flush draw because of card removal (its hard to have a jack in a 3bet pot when there is 2 jacks on the baord and your range in general bill be more weighted towards suited cards that he will (correctly?) assume you're peeling.
on the river, I like to keep betting and representing a flush draw, but as played we have to call.
Unfortunately misplayed on every street imo, but we live to learn
edit: whilst this may sound very harsh, peeling pre is even worse when we really have no idea how to play correctly when we flop top pair and generally fail to extract maximum from our hand when basically having the nuts.
1) we are going to win a small or medium pot a small % of the time
2) we are going to lose a small or medium pot a BIG % of the time
3) we are going to lose a huge pot a small % of the time.
«
Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 03:45:12 PM by pleno1
»
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
mondatoo
Hero Member
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Posts: 22503
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #2 on:
April 11, 2012, 03:40:59 PM »
I'd fold pre but as you know this was a mistake...
I really don't like the c/r on the flop, it achieves very little and just inflates the pot oop and a lot of the time we aren't even going to have the best hand here in a 3b so your basically just opening yourself up to a world of hurt.
Turn/River meh, sigh at runout.
Being bluntly honest pre and the flop is pretty spewy, esp at this stage of the comp, don't mean to be harsh when you just busted.
Just get pissed at the bar and tell everyone you ran terrible and got 2 outered on river.
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BulldozerD
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Posts: 1888
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #3 on:
April 11, 2012, 03:46:38 PM »
Pre and flop are pretty bad.
Turn seems standard as played
Depend on stack sizes whether you can bet/fold river
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TommyD
Sr. Member
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Posts: 629
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #4 on:
April 11, 2012, 04:25:53 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on April 11, 2012, 03:40:59 PM
I'd fold pre but as you know this was a mistake...
I really don't like the c/r on the flop, it achieves very little and just inflates the pot oop and a lot of the time we aren't even going to have the best hand here in a 3b so your basically just opening yourself up to a world of hurt.
Turn/River meh, sigh at runout.
Being bluntly honest pre and the flop is pretty spewy, esp at this stage of the comp, don't mean to be harsh when you just busted.
Just get pissed at the bar and tell everyone you ran terrible and got 2 outered on river.
Everything Monda said above, especially the bolded section.
It's a really poorly played hand, but we've all done it.
On the river I think you can still get away just because it's really early days in a long tournament and people are value shoving monsters exponentially more than they are bluff shoving. We don't cover much if any of his value range.
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pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 18912
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #5 on:
April 11, 2012, 04:34:43 PM »
Quote from: TommyD on April 11, 2012, 04:25:53 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on April 11, 2012, 03:40:59 PM
I'd fold pre but as you know this was a mistake...
I really don't like the c/r on the flop, it achieves very little and just inflates the pot oop and a lot of the time we aren't even going to have the best hand here in a 3b so your basically just opening yourself up to a world of hurt.
Turn/River meh, sigh at runout.
Being bluntly honest pre and the flop is pretty spewy, esp at this stage of the comp, don't mean to be harsh when you just busted.
Just get pissed at the bar and tell everyone you ran terrible and got 2 outered on river.
Everything Monda said above, especially the bolded section.
It's a really poorly played hand, but we've all done it.
On the river I think you can still get away just because it's really early days in a long tournament and people are value shoving monsters exponentially more than they are bluff shoving. We don't cover much if any of his value range.
we checked the river?! we can never fold as played imo.
Logged
Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
TommyD
Sr. Member
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Posts: 629
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #6 on:
April 11, 2012, 04:55:51 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on April 11, 2012, 04:34:43 PM
Quote from: TommyD on April 11, 2012, 04:25:53 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on April 11, 2012, 03:40:59 PM
I'd fold pre but as you know this was a mistake...
I really don't like the c/r on the flop, it achieves very little and just inflates the pot oop and a lot of the time we aren't even going to have the best hand here in a 3b so your basically just opening yourself up to a world of hurt.
Turn/River meh, sigh at runout.
Being bluntly honest pre and the flop is pretty spewy, esp at this stage of the comp, don't mean to be harsh when you just busted.
Just get pissed at the bar and tell everyone you ran terrible and got 2 outered on river.
Everything Monda said above, especially the bolded section.
It's a really poorly played hand, but we've all done it.
On the river I think you can still get away just because it's really early days in a long tournament and people are value shoving monsters exponentially more than they are bluff shoving. We don't cover much if any of his value range.
we checked the river?! we can never fold as played imo.
Get yourself inside the mind of the average live player (we have no reads so I'm using that yardstick). They have been looking forward to this event for ages, a lot of the field have satellited in. At the 50/100 level they are not going to risking this much of their stack on a busted flush draw/stone cold bluff. They check over pairs behind 100% of the time when we have been firing at them on flop and turn when the top card has paired on the turn. They are not doing this move this early without at least the last jack, and bearing in mind they have 3bet us pre it's unlikely they have a jack we beat. This is almost always an absolute monster from the average live player.
Now if the reads were the player is on his lappy grinding Stars while playing here at the same time then it's an obvious snap.
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George2Loose
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Posts: 15127
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #7 on:
April 11, 2012, 05:03:42 PM »
Not folding pre is easily the biggest mistake this hand
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Ole Ole Ole Ole!
pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 18912
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #8 on:
April 11, 2012, 05:09:41 PM »
Lol Tommy, this is the same guy who Alex Martin said gl to and that travelled with Adam Reynolds who 3b5b k9 aip.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
TommyD
Sr. Member
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Posts: 629
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #9 on:
April 11, 2012, 05:21:47 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on April 11, 2012, 05:09:41 PM
Lol Tommy, this is the same guy who Alex Martin said gl to and that travelled with Adam Reynolds who 3b5b k9 aip.
Well that changes things somewhat.
«
Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 05:23:27 PM by TommyD
»
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bobAlike
Hero Member
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Posts: 5823
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #10 on:
April 11, 2012, 05:57:46 PM »
Thanks for all the comments and I fully accept I f'ked this up.
I did believe I was ahead on the flop and obv turn but these pesky internet wizzes do sometimes have a hand.
I should never have played this tournament as I had to make so many changes to my everyday schedule and was probably not in the right mind to play. I always intended to avoid this tourny but the allure of the 1m guarantee got the better of me lol.
Thanks again
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Ah! The element of surprise
nirvana
Hero Member
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Posts: 7809
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #11 on:
April 11, 2012, 06:17:17 PM »
Gary B is excellent. Also, great hair, good lad. Sort of unlucky that you cant fold the river once you're there
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sola virtus nobilitat
Boba Fett
Doctor of Thugonomics
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Posts: 2922
Pain is Temporary!
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #12 on:
April 12, 2012, 03:31:56 AM »
Not much more to say about pre and flop play that hasnt been said already however I really dont like checking the river after you have c/r the flop. I think he will check back everything on the river with showdown value that isnt a J or better(most of which would call a bet on the river) so you're losing value against everything you beat that can call a river bet. He might also check back busted flushes on the river too given how much strength you've repped by c/r'ing the flop and betting the turn as you can still have strong showdown value on the river and can check/call.
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Ya gotta crawl before ya ball!
Pinchop73
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Posts: 1435
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #13 on:
April 12, 2012, 09:23:55 AM »
Gets there
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First they came for the nits, and I did not speak out because I was not a nit
SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: UKIPT Exit - Can you get away?
«
Reply #14 on:
April 12, 2012, 09:55:40 AM »
Great post by Pleno.
Re-read it several times imo - I have nothing I could possibly add.
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