Sigh call or sigh fold?

[Derbylad]

DTD grand prix...
I'd been playing loose aggressive at the table and racked up to 24k within the first few levels, with very little showdowns.

Dealt to Hero (stack: 24k+)
  in the SB

Blinds 150/300 25A

UTG+1 raises to 750 (stack: 22k+)
Folds to Hero, 3 bets to 2450

UTG+1 Flats.

[Pot: 5425]

FLOP:  

Hero leads for 3450
UTG+1 moves all in.

Hero??

[SuuPRlim]

ok. there is 3450*2, 2450*2 175+450

12,425 and he's gone all in for 16,100 more

You need 36% equity to call.

[MC]

ok. there is 3450*2, 2450*2 175+450

12,425 and he's gone all in for 16,100 more

You need 36% equity to call.

So we can call pretty comfortably...

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    45.623%     45.57%    00.05%             23008           27.00   { KcKh }
Hand 1:    54.377%     54.32%    00.05%             27428           27.00   { AA, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TT, 44, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AQs-ATs, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, AJo+ }

[david3103]

Only AA or TT give you less that lilDave's calculated equity to call, and even then it's close...

Preflop action suggests AK/AQ QQ type hands?

But it's a tourney threatening loss if you miss and the field is full of opportunities to gather back the 5900 chips you'll have lost if you fold now which surely has to factor in to the decision.
Online with potential to click open another tournament I doubt I could ever fold here. Truthfully I doubt I fold live in a regular weekly tourney either.

Out of interest, why lead that flop? I think Il go into check call mode on the flop (within reason) and see if I can see a cheap turn card.

[MC]

Out of interest, why lead that flop? I think Il go into check call mode on the flop (within reason) and see if I can see a cheap turn card.

Yeah, bet/folding the flop seems pretty tez. I guess bet/calling is an option but check/calling seems a better line.

[Derbylad]

I capped the players range at 1010, AxJ-Qh here on the shove. Sigh called it off, wasn't sure on my exact equity at the time though. Considering there are multiple Day 1's and one rebuy i'd of rather got it in with the chance for an early Chip lead then grind the entire 15 levels so that factored into the decision.

[zerofive]

Would probs take AA and AK out of the range, unless villain is playing a particularly unorthodox game. Don't see why he wouldn't want to induce the 5ball given how you describe your image. Even so, mathematically it's fine and decent strategy in a situation where we can afford to lose this amount of chips (ie in a cash game, or if we have the whole table ridic covered.)

What do we think to checking this flop? We can peel a free one sometimes, or call and reassess (I'd expect him to bet worse value here which would most likely check behind turn and unimproved river.) The only thing that sucks about checking is you can potentially give a free card to a hand like 88-JJ/KQ which might improve on the turn.

Do we think checkraise gets him to fold better frequently enough to make it a profitable play here?

[rbc_mike]

4b/c pre imo.  If you have been LAG and he thinks you're getting out of line, this is a great spot to try and continue this image. plus he's gonna stack off lighter than usual if he thinks you're trying to bully him, if he can feasibly 5b jam with 99+ here then surely we have to put in the 4 ball?

[pokerfan]

4b/c pre imo.  If you have been LAG and he thinks you're getting out of line, this is a great spot to try and continue this image. plus he's gonna stack off lighter than usual if he thinks you're trying to bully him, if he can feasibly 5b jam with 99+ here then surely we have to put in the 4 ball?

Villain flats 3b pre.

[zerofive]

4b/c pre imo.  If you have been LAG and he thinks you're getting out of line, this is a great spot to try and continue this image. plus he's gonna stack off lighter than usual if he thinks you're trying to bully him, if he can feasibly 5b jam with 99+ here then surely we have to put in the 4 ball?

Are you okay mate? Might want to reread the OP...

[rbc_mike]

absolute sigh I'm the worst back to bed I think

[david3103]

Would probs take AA and AK out of the range, unless villain is playing a particularly unorthodox game. Don't see why he wouldn't want to induce the 5ball given how you describe your image. Even so, mathematically it's fine and decent strategy in a situation where we can afford to lose this amount of chips (ie in a cash game, or if we have the whole table ridic covered.)

What do we think to checking this flop? We can peel a free one sometimes, or call and reassess (I'd expect him to bet worse value here which would most likely check behind turn and unimproved river.) The only thing that sucks about checking is you can potentially give a free card to a hand like 88-JJ/KQ which might improve on the turn.

Do we think checkraise gets him to fold better frequently enough to make it a profitable play here?

It was the Grand Prix - 3/4 of the field played an 'unorthodax game'...

[SuuPRlim]

ok. there is 3450*2, 2450*2 175+450

12,425 and he's gone all in for 16,100 more

You need 36% equity to call.

So we can call pretty comfortably...

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    45.623%     45.57%    00.05%             23008           27.00   { KcKh }
Hand 1:    54.377%     54.32%    00.05%             27428           27.00   { AA, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TT, 44, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AQs-ATs, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, AJo+ }

yup. Pokerstove is our friend for this one.

[Beaver808]

It sounds like you're chipping up nicely at the tourney. If I can comfortably reload then I'm sigh calling for the flip and reloading if we miss a  or 

[BulldozerD]

Not betting to fold