No cunning plan at the Fox

[Kilgore_Trout]

Didn't know what to do in this hand so i thought I'd look for opinions:

£40 tournament at the Fox club down in the smoke. 20,000 starting chips and I'm up to about 70,000. Blinds are now 500-1,000.

I won a big hand from the player who will be UTG+1 in this hand recently and he still seems pretty steamed up.

I'm in the BB and get dealt 

UTG folds, UTG+1 is down to about 18,000 chips - raises it to 3,000. UTG+2 (seems pretty steady/normal player with a similar stack to me) flat calls.

Its folded round to me and I decide to flat call. I know I'll be OOP but I reckon UTG+1 will probably go all in on most flops so I can get away fairly cheaply if I miss and win a big pot if I hit.

Flop comes 

So I have middle pair and a flush draw and I'm feeling pretty happy with that.

I check. UTG+1 jams all in for his last 15,000 ish. UTG+2 insta calls.

OK so now I don't kow what to do. I'm calling UTG+1's shove cus I think he's steaming and is going to shove most flops but the insta call has scuppered my plans. I considered going all in but looking at UTG+2 he seems pretty happy and I don't figure him for folding. Folding myself doesn't seem a good idea so i get stuck in the middle and flat call. I kinda feel this is a mistake but i'm not happy with any option here.

The turn is a blank.  or something.

I check. UTG+2 goes all in. I fold like a small, scared child.

River is another blank. I forget, but it didn't change anything.

As it turns out UTG+1 had AK (no hearts) and UTG+2 had JJ so had hit top set and was never folding at any stage.

Was this just a hand that was bound to get messy or did I play it badly? Jam the flop? Fold pre?

Comments welcome.

[Sulphur man]

Fold pre. You are looking at effective stacks and he is in ep with 18bbs 3x opening
which is normally hands like 88 99 1010 ak.

Also you will get a better answer to your question if you don't let us the other hands in
play just yet. We get results orientated then.

[DMorgan]

100% fold pre.

As played you don't give UTG+2s stack size but assuming that he covers you the flop is a jam imo. You're a favourite vs everything but sets and he will call with a hand like QJ and probably fold to your jam - but we're happy enough if he calls anyway.

[Pugwashed]

Fold pre, rest seems wp. I'm not shoving the flop to try and get UTG+2 to fold when his range is so ridiculously strong

[DMorgan]

Definitely don't agree that UTG+2 is joke strong without knowing stacks. If he's flatted the 15k with 25k behind then I'd agree but this is a live £40 freeze. He can very plausibly have an awful lot of Jx. He probably doesn't have worse than that but there are far more combos of Jx hands that we're ahead of than there are sets

[cambridgealex]

Can't see most live players folding tt 99 88 otf tbh.

So defo shoving flop.

[Fenix35]

He can very plausibly have an awful lot of Jx. He probably doesn't have worse than that but there are far more combos of Jx hands that we're ahead of than there are sets

We've got like 50% versus Jx hands he has. The question is whether he's ever going to fold Jx if we shove, if he's ever snap-calling the original guys shove with 88-TT. If not, shoving doesn't seem so great all of a sudden.

[DMorgan]

Still don't know stack sizes but if villain covers I just think that he has far too many bad preflop Jx peels for his flatting range on this flop to be one that it wouldn't be +EV to jam against.

[Pugwashed]

UTG folds, UTG+1 is down to about 18,000 chips - raises it to 3,000. UTG+2 (seems pretty steady/normal player with a similar stack to me) flat calls.

[FrenchieBeni]

Can't see most live players folding tt 99 88 otf tbh.

So defo shoving flop.

This.
villains range is much wider than the top set he showed. Jx, midpockets. we block midset. great equity vs Jx, hes gna call/fold better hands. can call AKh, AQhh, KQhh < 7xhh.  so ~45% vs his call/call range; we dont even need villain to have a call/fold range.
stack sizes are also nice.

i fold pf tho.

[youthnkzR]

after calling pf.. deffinatly gettin it in on the flop

[Kilgore_Trout]

Yes UTG+2 had a similar stack to me.

At the time if UTG+2 had dwell called on the flop and not looked too happy about it then I would have been happy to check/jam all in.

The insta call made me think he had an easy decision to make on the flop so my fold equity on a check/shove was minimal.

How much account do you take of a read on the way UTG+2 calls here? Or is it just down to hand range and pot size?

[FrenchieBeni]

The insta call made me think he had an easy decision to make on the flop so my fold equity on a check/shove was minimal.

How much account do you take of a read on the way UTG+2 calls here? Or is it just down to hand range and pot size?

Given your equity + stack sizes you dont need any fold equity.
Plus we very rarely have 0 fold equity at all, in any spot.