Tough hand vs percieved flairmonkey

[Amatay]

so how would u play kj k10 here? How is it different from 88 if oppo has (may have/repping) aa, kk, ak for examples. Bet flop and get raised like if we bet 88? c/c flop and bet turn and get raised like 88 ITT?

[Honeybadger]

so how would u play kj k10 here? How is it different from 88 if oppo has (may have/repping) aa, kk, ak for examples. Bet flop and get raised like if we bet 88? c/c flop and bet turn and get raised like 88 ITT?

Pretty clear and obvious bet with KJ/KT here. And it's not a bet/fold, it is a bet/call. Think I already said this.

There is not a huge amount of difference between Kx and 88 here when facing a turn check raise. However, there are some differences:

1. Obviously having Kx makes it combinatorically much less likely that villain has AK/KK.
2. Villain's equity with his bluffs will often be better vs 88 than vs Kx.
3. Hero's equity is better with Kx those few times that villain has hit some sort of two pair hand.

It is these differences that make KJ a very clear bet, whereas betting 88 is more optional.

[Amatay]

so how would u play kj k10 here? How is it different from 88 if oppo has (may have/repping) aa, kk, ak for examples. Bet flop and get raised like if we bet 88? c/c flop and bet turn and get raised like 88 ITT?

Pretty clear and obvious bet with KJ/KT here. And it's not a bet/fold, it is a bet/call. Think I already said this.

There is not a huge amount of difference between Kx and 88 here when facing a turn check raise. However, there are some differences:

1. Obviously having Kx makes it combinatorically much less likely that villain has AK/KK.
2. Villain's equity with his bluffs will often be better vs 88 than vs Kx.
3. Hero's equity is better with Kx those few times that villain has hit some sort of two pair hand.

It is these differences that make KJ a very clear bet, whereas betting 88 is more optional.

bet flop then yh? Merits for check bk flop and bet turn?

[Whollyflush]

Just because someone checks doesn't mean they have a capped range. Capped range applies more to multiway scenario's e.g An aggressive 3bettor overcalls preflop 5 way ruling out AA/KK  etc etc. I can't help but think because you percieve it to be a bad play, makes little therefore sense its more likely to be a bluff. Projecting how you would play the hand onto how others play is dangerous and we can safely assume this guy thinks differently. His line doesn't look great at prima facie but over the years this line has been more nuts than air. Results OP?

[Honeybadger]

Just because someone checks doesn't mean they have a capped range. Capped range applies more to multiway scenario's e.g An aggressive 3bettor overcalls preflop 5 way ruling out AA/KK  etc etc. I can't help but think because you percieve it to be a bad play, makes little therefore sense its more likely to be a bluff. Projecting how you would play the hand onto how others play is dangerous and we can safely assume this guy thinks differently. His line doesn't look great at prima facie but over the years this line has been more nuts than air. Results OP?

In practice when we say someone's range is capped we do not mean he can never have a strong hand (although taken literally that is what it means I suppose). We really mean that we are heavily discounting the chances of him having that strong hand. Obvious example... if a very aggressive but mediocre player checks back a twotone flop HU and the turn brings the flush, we might consider that his range is capped and that he never has a flush since he would always cbet a flush draw. Obviously we don't literally mean 'never' and 'always'. It is perhaps linguistically lazy, but it's impossible to qualify everything.

So yes... obviously it is not impossible for villain to turn up with the nuts here. Just as it is not impossible for hero to turn up with the nuts either (this was actually my original point in response to Dan and Dave, before things got sidetracked). People do strange things from time to time, and poker players play hands strangely from time to time.

However, it is still FAR less likely that he has the nuts by the turn than if he had simply bet flop, bet turn. And he has checked twice now, remember.

Capped ranges don't necessarily apply more to multiway scenarios, they apply in all sorts of situations. Also, there are more spots to exploit capped ranges in low stakes games against weaker players than in high stakes games vs strong players - weaker players turn their hands face up more often than strong players.

I am not really in agreement with you that 'over the years this line has been more nuts than air'. If we are talking about old-fashioned 'bad players' who don't have many moves in them, think they should often trap with their good hands to make sure they get paid, and basically always have the nuts when they lower the hammer like this... well, I would tend to agree with you that this line is usually nutted and only a small percentage of the time is a random blow-out. But we are not talking about this kind of guy, we are talking about a 'perceived flairmonkey' about whom reads have been given by the OP. In my experience, over the years this line from this sort of guy has fairly often been air. These guys are often aware enough of their image that they know to bet their good hands. They are also often ego-driven with feelings of superiority over their opponents, so they do make these 'repping nothing' bluffs if they sense weakness because they don't consider that their opponents are good enough for them to actually have to rep something. And often they get away with playing like this too, when their opponents keep throwing their hands away in spots where the villain is not repping much. If your experience disagrees with this, well that is fine obviously. But do keep in mind that OP actually gave a HH, showing villain acting in exactly this sort of manner with what was presumably a bluff.

[Honeybadger]

bet flop then yh? Merits for check bk flop and bet turn?

Betting flop is ok with KJ.

[Honeybadger]

Anyway Stu - as played...fold the river?

Sorry Dave, missed this last bit...

Yes I'd fold the river. Probably. When I call the turn c/r, I am planning on calling most rivers. But I would most likely find a crying fold on this one!

Although, being the massive station that I am, I can see there is at least an argument for calling the river... A guy like this will always bet this scary river, he is likely very polarised since there is a 4 card straight on board,  he is a flairmonkey etc. And of course, the one that always gets me... we are getting a decent price!

Obviously the worst possible feeling is when you call here (maybe because of some live ninja style tell thing such that you 'know' he is at it) and villain turns up with a weirdly played 99, or K7o or whatever. He thinks he is bluffing, but actually he has fish-merged you!

[pokerfan]

Fish-merged 

[SuuPRlim]

thing about this river as well is it knocks 3 AA combo's and 3 AK combo's out of his turn range - still think it's a fold just helping you justify it after you've stationed it off

[tikay]

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading honeybadgers Posts.

"combinatorically"

Ooooh.

[Amatay]

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading honeybadgers Posts.

"combinatorically"

Ooooh.

+1

[Coggy]

Fish-merged 

Genius !!!

Triple range fish-merged

[SuuPRlim]

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading honeybadgers Posts.

"combinatorically"

Ooooh.

+1 - I like how he uses bolding and italics all the time as well.

If you think he sounds far to clever in print try speaking to him on the phone!

[tikay]

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading honeybadgers Posts.

"combinatorically"

Ooooh.

+1 - I like how he uses bolding and italics all the time as well.

If you think he sounds far to clever in print try speaking to him on the phone!

Nope, too "too clever" at all, but he goes to some effort to present his case in a way those who want to learn can understand.

It's a fat lot of good speaking in Level 5 speak without explanation, as the Level 5 guys already know the score! And yes, the italicisation & enboldenment help, too.  And that's not to say I don't find yours hugely informative & entertaining too - I do.

We learned elswhere on blonde in the last few days that addressing people politely makes them want to punch our lights out, or puke up, & it's the same with saying "yikes, you write really well", it's almost like it's uncool & signifies ownership of a micro-willie. I just like saying it if I see stuff I like.

[Honeybadger]

Thanks for the nice compliments guys. Made my day, seriously. 

And thanks for the love on 'fish-merge' too!