GUKPT Thanet River Spot

[sm00035]

Playing the GUKPT Thanet Main event (£500 6max).

I have been at the table all day, have a pretty aggro image. Haven't showndown a huge amount of bluffs but have won a fair few pots with less then premium hands.

The villian is late twenties, has been on the table around 2 hours and is unknown to me. From a comment he made I believe he percieves me being pretty loose and so far he has played VERY tight.

2 hands of note we have played previously is where he opened at 150/300 to 700 i peeled in pos it came 984 w/2diamonds, he bet full pot and i dwell folded. He showed 99.

Then at 200/400 he opened to 850 i 3bet to 2300 in pos he led a K36 board for 3k and folded when i put him in for 11k more. He told me in the break he had AQ and I do believe him.

Anyway, he opens to 850 playing 40bb i peel T8ss button covering him.

Flop is J75 with . He checks I bet 850 he snap calls. Turn is he checks i bet 2250 he thinks for a few seconds and calls. River he checks I bet 4700 he dwells (it came accross as a dwell as a matter of course as apposed to a dwell actually considering what to do) then jams for just under 8k more.

Wwyd? Thoughts of hands he would play like this....

[Pugwashed]

I have no idea what he has but I'm not folding. It's possible he has some slow plays that just value towned themselves on the river. As for the rest of the hand, I'm pretty likely to 3bet this on the button but against this player (who from the sounds of it is gonna play kinda weird and bad post flop) flatting is possibly better

[rfgqqabc]

peel fine vs someone so splashy/not great.

Can't see any reason to fold. You have blockers for all spade/pair hands,  / 

flick it in

[Doobs]

He has you beat.  or  seems inevitable. I like to call in these spots to prove to myself I was right.

[SuuPRlim]

seems like he is not the type to be bluffing, nor the type to make a thin value raise and DEFO not the type to slowplay a set or anything on a wet board.

It's interesting how he snaps the flop and thinks it through on the turn. The flop snap, to me always makes me think its like a decent MADE hand (Jx/7x most likely here) where is ofc must call but wants to discourage you from betting the turn so he can show his hand down. So with all this logic, it seems reasonable to think that his most likely hands on the river are something like      etc.

What would be really useful to know now is what position he's opened from pre-flop. If he's UTG he prolly doesn't have  ,  etc but if he's opened the HiJack or c/o he could have a way wider selection of spade/spade hands, some of which we beat, and if he's jamming a 7flush for value and we fold that would be pretty disappointing.

As Adam says,        which would would be the most likely flushes he would have if we beat his value jam are all blocked, so I guess it kind of looks like a fold might be the best. Speshly loads of Xs hands are possible but it really depends on his PF position.

I'm literally 1,000,000 to fold this in game though, I just wouldn't.

[pleno1]

the longer he takes on the turn the quicker i call.

[skolsuper]

the longer he takes on the turn the quicker i call.

I couldn't possibly call any quicker than I would already be calling in this spot. Sucks if you lost tho.

[smashedagain]

seems like he is not the type to be bluffing, nor the type to make a thin value raise and DEFO not the type to slowplay a set or anything on a wet board.

It's interesting how he snaps the flop and thinks it through on the turn. The flop snap, to me always makes me think its like a decent MADE hand (Jx/7x most likely here) where is ofc must call but wants to discourage you from betting the turn so he can show his hand down. So with all this logic, it seems reasonable to think that his most likely hands on the river are something like      etc.

What would be really useful to know now is what position he's opened from pre-flop. If he's UTG he prolly doesn't have  ,  etc but if he's opened the HiJack or c/o he could have a way wider selection of spade/spade hands, some of which we beat, and if he's jamming a 7flush for value and we fold that would be pretty disappointing.

As Adam says,        which would would be the most likely flushes he would have if we beat his value jam are all blocked, so I guess it kind of looks like a fold might be the best. Speshly loads of Xs hands are possible but it really depends on his PF position.

I'm literally 1,000,000 to fold this in game though, I just wouldn't.

fml was gonna make a totally inappropriate joke about all those spades then. just held myself back enough not to get a ban thank god

[rfgqqabc]

I meant all the pair +ss combos are blocked pretty hard, so he needs to have retarded broadway spades/JXss or we win. I'd not be surprised to see heaps of "value" hands here like 2p/AA or w/e

[SuuPRlim]

I meant all the pair +ss combos are blocked pretty hard, so he needs to have retarded broadway spades/JXss or we win. I'd not be surprised to see heaps of "value" hands here like 2p/AA or w/e

I think he'll have AA less than 0.01% of the time. I mean he could defo have a smaller flush or 89 dont get why he wouldn't bet the flop with 89.

Most likely hand really is  Xs imo as he'd pretty likely bet a Jack otf. if he's opened LP he can have 74, 73, 79 s/s so that's important as we beat those hands. Also means he will have Q7 and K7 s/s also and ofc A7 he likely to have aswell.

[rfgqqabc]

I meant all the pair +ss combos are blocked pretty hard, so he needs to have retarded broadway spades/JXss or we win. I'd not be surprised to see heaps of "value" hands here like 2p/AA or w/e

I think he'll have AA less than 0.01% of the time. I mean he could defo have a smaller flush or 89 dont get why he wouldn't bet the flop with 89.

Most likely hand really is  Xs imo as he'd pretty likely bet a Jack otf. if he's opened LP he can have 74, 73, 79 s/s so that's important as we beat those hands. Also means he will have Q7 and K7 s/s also and ofc A7 he likely to have aswell.

trollface.jpeg

[LeeMcshane]

Personally i think he has slow played a set.... like everyone says you have blockers to his back door flush espsecially with him callling the flop unless he has As but i cant see this in his range especially as you said he dwells up on the river... Easy snap call for myself here..

What did you actually do? did you see his hand?

[skolsuper]

Most likely Sam lost as the hand would be forgettable otherwise, but I think at the time his range includes slowplayed sets and AA* etc. as mentioned before, better flushes and random 1pr hands now turned into a bluff. Villain as described probs doesn't even open 97ss from the cutoff, let alone 75-73ss. Doubt he snap c/c the flop with a total whiff of a hand like KQss, but AKss and AQss I feel like this kind of player would be stubborn with vs. Sam. Would expect him to bet with any Jack most of the time, but wouldn't be surprised if he immediately went into c/c mode with something like JTss QJss and backdoored a flush, although I think that's equally as likely as he went into c/c mode with something like TT and is now turning it into a bluff for no good reason. Basically, whatever hand he turns up with here it's unlikely he played it that way, but he has to have one of them, and numerically there are way more losers than winners amongst them so call.

*whenever absolutely nothing makes sense any more, AA is the most likely hand you're up against, in my experience.

[Mondeoman]

Doubt hes bluffing very often or raising anything less than a flush. 
In the previous hand when he pots it with top set and shows it suggests a) he's not very good b)  he's scared of you. 
This makes it less likely hes going to consider turning a made hand into a bluff and also less likely he'd try and bluff you.
When players check call flops having raised pre they usually have a second pair type hand or some sort of weak backdoor draw where they really want to see a turn card so id say as7s or 9s7s are the most likely options.  Thing is hes always going to raise nut flushes but not always smaller flushes so i think you are beat a lot here.
Having said that I'm still calling because youre pretty much at the top of your range, you do beat some of his value hands and you're getting a good price (and he might just might be spazzing).

[SuuPRlim]

Doubt hes bluffing very often or raising anything less than a flush. 
In the previous hand when he pots it with top set and shows it suggests a) he's not very good b)  he's scared of you. 
This makes it less likely hes going to consider turning a made hand into a bluff and also less likely he'd try and bluff you.
When players check call flops having raised pre they usually have a second pair type hand or some sort of weak backdoor draw where they really want to see a turn card so id say as7s or 9s7s are the most likely options.  Thing is hes always going to raise nut flushes but not always smaller flushes so i think you are beat a lot here.
Having said that I'm still calling because youre pretty much at the top of your range, you do beat some of his value hands and you're getting a good price (and he might just might be spazzing).

Yup

I think you'll get shown a slowplayed set here practically never, not because of the flush but because the flops most obvious draw gets in OTT and Sam still bets. Most players generally won't go for thin value in a spot like that, speshly a player who would play the 99 hand like he did.