Any mid stakes regs about? $22cubed range spot

[Pinchop73]

With the fairly tight/nitty dynamics of the game these days does anybody have an idea what this reg is more likely to have here? He's Polish, and a decent winner.

Small raise pre I know, but tikkamor1 had gone berzerk the previous few hands and I was fully expecting him to jam over the top.

***** Hand History for Game 79861553505 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, May 03, 05:16:20 ET 2012
Table 571010534 79 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: kogoj ( $30346.00 USD )
Seat 2: Garrincha7 ( $14257.00 USD )
Seat 3: husajn54 ( $24109.00 USD )
Seat 4: Method999 ( $3547.00 USD )
Seat 5: PietjeBel99 ( $42125.00 USD )
Seat 6: Ultraballs18 ( $33399.00 USD )
Seat 7: marynarz1980 ( $33290.00 USD )
Seat 8: tikkamor1 ( $11016.00 USD )
Seat 9: davjon ( $21635.00 USD )
kogoj posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
Garrincha7 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
husajn54 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
Method999 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
PietjeBel99 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
Ultraballs18 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
marynarz1980 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
tikkamor1 posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
davjon posts ante of [$75.00 USD].
Ultraballs18 posts small blind [$400.00 USD].
marynarz1980 posts big blind [$800.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ultraballs18 [   ]
tikkamor1 calls [$800.00 USD]
davjon folds
kogoj folds
Garrincha7 folds
husajn54 folds
Method999 folds
PietjeBel99 folds
Ultraballs18 raises [$1850.00 USD]
marynarz1980 calls [$1450.00 USD]
tikkamor1 calls [$1450.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
Ultraballs18 bets [$3570.00 USD]
marynarz1980 raises [$30965.00 USD]
tikkamor1 folds

Had around 30 hands on him at 35/26/8. Is he more likely jamming AdXd,KdXd,KQo,99,J9 on a semi bluff or is he jamming 79s,Q9s,88,TT,JJ,8Ts,TJs protecting from a flush draw? Under normal circumstances I'd take all the sets out of his range from his action pre, but with my reasoning for a small raise in mind I'm not so sure? I think it's a fairly easy fold either way, just interested in people's thoughts. Ta

[pleno1]

dont like ti when he flats behind, cant we jsut stove this?

[Pinchop73]

Well obv stoving it is pretty pointless as we need 80% equity to call.

Just thought it was one of those situations that might warrant a HERO call sometimes ie vs a specific opponent. Thought somebody may have some decent notes on the guy and be willing to divulge his tendencies a little.

No harm in asking eh! :p

[Rupert]

if you make a pussy sized raise you deserve to get punished. way more pre then we can talk

[Rupert]

oh its not as small as first thought, should still make it at least 2600 though if hes limping in hes probably a bit of an idiot and unlikely to fold might as well print some money

[LeeMcshane]

oh its not as small as first thought, should still make it at least 2600 though if hes limping in hes probably a bit of an idiot and unlikely to fold might as well print some money

+1

normally when someone limps in... I x2 the bb and add one bb onto  it so it would be no less then 2400 on this occasion normally a good rule to use. I always slightly adjust it to the villain as well but i would be going no less then 2400 all the way to 3k pre on this one.

[outragous76]

never folding

[cambridgealex]

Check flop

[david3103]

Check flop

Lot of turn cards are either scary for us, or are action killers so are we checking for pot control or deception?

[cambridgealex]

Check flop

Lot of turn cards are either scary for us, or are action killers so are we checking for pot control or deception?

against a good player I'd check here a decent % of the time for balance (never cbetting AK here), pot control (we're never in great shape vs a getting it in range probably 40-60%) and deception.

Having said that, I see that the guy has limp/called meaning he's probably a fish and also probably doesn't ever have a set so I probably wouldn't check vs this guy.

Btw you say there a lots of bad turn cards, on the face of it there are, but I would only count a Q 9 A or a 7 as a bad turn card, so that's only about 30% of the deck, so it's not that bad.

[skolsuper]

Well obv stoving it is pretty pointless as we need 80% equity to call.

Just thought it was one of those situations that might warrant a HERO call sometimes ie vs a specific opponent. Thought somebody may have some decent notes on the guy and be willing to divulge his tendencies a little.

No harm in asking eh! :p

In cEV terms you can only ever 'need' up to 50% equity to call as you're always getting at least even money. In practice even vs massive over bets you'll almost always be getting odds to call with 45% equity. I agree this is a fold tho.

[david3103]

Check flop

Lot of turn cards are either scary for us, or are action killers so are we checking for pot control or deception?

against a good player I'd check here a decent % of the time for balance (never cbetting AK here), pot control (we're never in great shape vs a getting it in range probably 40-60%) and deception.

Having said that, I see that the guy has limp/called meaning he's probably a fish and also probably doesn't ever have a set so I probably wouldn't check vs this guy.

Btw you say there a lots of bad turn cards, on the face of it there are, but I would only count a Q 9 A or a 7 as a bad turn card, so that's only about 30% of the deck, so it's not that bad.

What about the diamonds, are they not bad cards for us too?

[Pinchop73]

never folding

What are you going to be beating? Realistically?

In cEV terms you can only ever 'need' up to 50% equity to call as you're always getting at least even money. In practice even vs massive over bets you'll almost always be getting odds to call with 45% equity. I agree this is a fold tho.

Yeah I worded that incorrectly, I meant the pot odds which are of course only a part of calculating the equity needed.

I also agree with Al that this is a check. I would check here a lot of the time and I should have done so this time, as I hadn't thought about what I'd do if the bb jammed. I was totally concentrating on just the limper which was my fundamental mistake in this hand. Apart from not making it enough pre. Sigh

[cambridgealex]

Check flop

Lot of turn cards are either scary for us, or are action killers so are we checking for pot control or deception?

against a good player I'd check here a decent % of the time for balance (never cbetting AK here), pot control (we're never in great shape vs a getting it in range probably 40-60%) and deception.

Having said that, I see that the guy has limp/called meaning he's probably a fish and also probably doesn't ever have a set so I probably wouldn't check vs this guy.

Btw you say there a lots of bad turn cards, on the face of it there are, but I would only count a Q 9 A or a 7 as a bad turn card, so that's only about 30% of the deck, so it's not that bad.

What about the diamonds, are they not bad cards for us too?

Not really, can expect people to bet flush draws a lot on the flop, particularly on this board where lots of diamond combos will have added equity of pairs or gutshots. So if it gets checked round and a diamond comes its not very likely anyone has a flush.

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

I think this is a pretty easy bet call tbh.  If he's bad enough to limp call from utg then he's bad enough to cshove any jack here.  A lot of these fishy players have no thoughts on what you have they just concentrate on their own hands and if they make a pair or not.  Tons of flush draws we're in good shape against as well i think its a huge leak if we don't call here.

Really hope its not a results orientated post and he actually has a set here but I'm still never folding.

With a limper i make it 3.3x pre every time.

Never checking back this flop vs 2 players, not because of 'scare cards' but purely because we miss value from soooooo many draws.