River line in live 2k event

[cambridgealex]

I open utg to 2500 at 600/1200/100 with , villain 3bets from mp to 4700.

Villain is Italian, fairly active, likes a min 3bet and takes small bet, small bet, big bet lines through the streets, not been to showdown yet.

I peel playing about 100k effective, so plenty deep.

, I check he bets 3600, I call.

Turn I check he bets 6700, I call.

River I check he bets 15600 with 72000 behind.

I have a seriously crazy image by the way on this table, got caught 3betting the river allin as a bluff, plenty of shoves when I was short, doubled 3b shoving T9hh, so I believed I would get paid off a decent % of the time.

What river line do you take? I think the other streets are standard.

a) Shove
b) Raise to 35k or similar and fold/call
c) Smooth call

[pleno1]

jamming. not sure on emotions, timing or verbals yet, will get back to you

[cambridgealex]

jamming. not sure on emotions, timing or verbals yet, will get back to you

last time i went allin on the river with a set I slid my chips slowly over the line and was called. This time I said allin. I was posed exactly the same, but tbh he wasn't looking at me at all. #knowsastatuewhenheseesone

[MC]

I don't think it's a smooth call when there is no cards left to come :-P

I want to shove but perhaps it's a little thin

[cambridgealex]

35k/fold perhaps.

[FrenchieBeni]

I was about to say lol c/shove Mr Italiano but because you said he likes to min3bet theres more spades in his betting range.

Spades ~ 15/20ish   {AKss, AQss, A9ss-A2ss, KQss, Q9s ...} - mite be pessimistic here.
TT 3
He plays those hands 100% of the time like this postflop I suppose.

JJ+ is like ~ 20 combos - so he has to b/c them 100% of the time for our shove to be good. Throw in some AT, KT and it starts being really okay.
But so deep in a mtt i dont know how wide hes b/cing for 80bigs.

if hes good i like raise 35k-40k/fold and c/shove if hes bad. you're so rarely beat.

[cambridgealex]

*one combo of TT

[TL900]

35k/fold perhaps.

your range looks kinda nutted when u make it 35 imo. i like cramming.

[muckthenuts]

I really like jam especially considering history. There's surely enough reason to suggest he will be able to talk himself into a call with worse.

[TommyD]

I know you have a great image to get value here, however is it that image wild enough to include double floating?  The flop was so bone dry it feels any raise you make here is representing a hand better than the one you actually have.  Literally no draws have missed because there were no draws, you look completely nutted here.  If you think he can level himself into a call with a marginal hand out of confusion then I like the shove, if not then I'm flatting the river and looking like a nit.

[FUN4FRASER]

Never "smooth calling" here and he is probably only calling your all in if you are beat , so 35/40k sounds like it gets the job done , as he will either pay you off or give you the bad news by jamming .

[SuuPRlim]

Raise folding seems awful to me.

Like TommyD says, you have gotten to the river with a hand way better than you're supposed to, jamming seems fine - would tank for a while before so though

[LonOhRay]

Can only see a jam here, look the board up and down for 30 seconds then knock a few chips off your stack as you slide them over the line.

But there is a huge amount of value in having 60 bigs by calling river



Annoying he hasn't been to show down yet, have his sizings been the same all day?

[cambridgealex]

Thing is, if I'm beat and I jam - I'm basically out of the tournament. Maybe I didn't mention my stack size, I'd have ten bigs left and the average at this point was about 70.

I think raise/folding in theory is terrible but in live poker vs this particular villain you can make a really exploitable raise/fold because he's never going to exploit you.

No-one really seems to agree with me on this point in general, but I truly believe if I raise to 35k and he jams I'm beat 100%, whereas he'll vlikely call with worse because the price is so good. Also that way, I save about 40k on the river which is 32bigs and I'm still alive.

[FUN4FRASER]

Thing is, if I'm beat and I jam - I'm basically out of the tournament. Maybe I didn't mention my stack size, I'd have ten bigs left and the average at this point was about 70.

I think raise/folding in theory is terrible but in live poker vs this particular villain you can make a really exploitable raise/fold because he's never going to exploit you.

No-one really seems to agree with me on this point in general, but I truly believe if I raise to 35k and he jams I'm beat 100%, whereas he'll vlikely call with worse because the price is so good. Also that way, I save about 40k on the river which is 32bigs and I'm still alive.

I did