dtd500 K flush vs Skalie

[jgcblack]

Live DTD500 Tournament

£500 entry

150 runners
around 50-60 left, late in day 1a, about 1 hour left.


@ 1k/2k we're playing 100k
Villain covers - John 'skalie' Kalmar
history/ reads - we've never played with John before today but we know of him and that he's been 'around' for a while in the poker world.  We've seen him overplay some hands in some relatively 'standard' spots.. not sure if this is me under-estimating him or that he's so good he was playing a level above, either way he got it in 3 way with 1 out and boomed a big triple up earlier.  Seems a bit of a 'live pro' and as such doesn't like the fold button.


We're in the SB and have the old   , John opens UTG to 5k and gets a caller behind (50+ recreational player), I dont like reraising here and so just call, BB comes along.

I've played very few hands but very aggressive, 3bt/5bting 22 vs AA a few orbits earlier which chopped off my CL and now I'm sat with 100k and avg @ 50-60kish.

We see a flop 4 ways
Pot 22k
FLOP
 

checks around....

Pot 22k
TURN
 

We lead 10k, BB folds, John calls, btn folds

Pot 32k
RIVER
  or other brick

We take a lot of time working out best way to play this, thinking that if we check we miss value from so many hands and rely on him betting his Jx or flushes/ better hands.. (some of which he obv will bet himself) and allow him to get away with QQ+/ Jx or other value hands he doesn't bet.  

So we want to bet, but how much, we have around 95k and the pot is 32k.... our two options as i see it are to bet 10-15k and call a raise up to 50k... or to bet 25-40k and fold to a raise...

I KNOW he should never raise worse, but we should give him some % of   type hands even if it as small as 1-5%.

I decide the best way with our reads on him and that he is less likely to fold than the other 'good' players at the table is that to exploit him we should be betting bigger for value.

I make it 32.6k after a couple of minutes thinking.

He takes 20-30secs fiddling with his call, then says 'raise' and makes it 70k.

Fuck.  

I know I'd already thought about this and as such it should be a snap fold, because that's why we bet so big but I just started to wonder..... "he did overplay those hands.. maybe he's taking off...."

wwyd and why?  comments on all streets welcome..

[FUN4FRASER]

His smooth call on the turn probably tells the story

If I was to lead out the river & get raised I puke fold too

[FrenchieBeni]

wow fyl
bet bigger ott like 15k-ish.
river it depends how we perceive hes gonna play - i think it makes up for ~ 20% of his range. doubt hes checking Jx and QQ+ that often otf. if he does, c/shoving starts becoming realllly really good - speshly if hes bluffing
vs a thinking player i q like the idea of the river overbet - i think a bigger sizing would be perceived more bluffy tho.
as played dont see any reason for him to value raise any mediumish hands ala AA, KK or even a low flush for the few % he cbacks OTF vs what looks a perceived polarized range.
so id theoratically f... i dont know mate!
although its tough for villain to have Axdd id say we're gonna see JJ and JTs more often than we think. 

...
God if hes bluffing the bare even <20% of the time he has it we're super exploitable .. dunno how often we have JTs, TT, JJ and Axdd. and these hands mite even be = KQdd

[SuuPRlim]

Despite your reads on Skalie he is very experienced and despite not being able to write a 3 paragraph post on how linear his 3 to 5 bet range is he CAN read hands, which is why I think you've bet a little too big OTR.

This all being said it's highly likely he has it, pretty sure he has a bluff here in him, but likely just has TT or JJ, with us having both the and the its very unlikely he has a flush (very likely he could open A9/A8 or something suited UTG but prolly doesn't) there is no way he'd raise a smaller flush for value and he'd be pretty likely to c-bet those hands.

I think you have gotten a bit caught up in attempting to exploit here, just bet 21k and give AA ot ATs a kind of easy-ish call imo + defo bet the turn a little bigger and make qq-aa with a blue card pay.

[skolsuper]

Live DTD500 Tournament

£500 entry

150 runners
around 50-60 left, late in day 1a, about 1 hour left.


@ 1k/2k we're playing 100k
Villain covers - John 'skalie' Kalmar
history/ reads - we've never played with John before today but we know of him and that he's been 'around' for a while in the poker world.  We've seen him overplay some hands in some relatively 'standard' spots.. not sure if this is me under-estimating him or that he's so good he was playing a level above, either way he got it in 3 way with 1 out and boomed a big triple up earlier.  Seems a bit of a 'live pro' and as such doesn't like the fold button.

genuine lol

[Honeybadger]

You are always losing here vs Skalie. Always.

On a side note:

God if hes bluffing the bare even <20% of the time he has it we're super exploitable.

This is not true at all. We have all the full houses in our range (apart from the rivered one).

[jgcblack]

appreciating the comments...

So far no one has even commented on my different options on the river... how often we would do them or why....


bigger on the turn seems to be across the board.. problem i had with that is I wouldn't put the turn going 3 ways out of the question.. and that makes the river a play for stacks pot with poor visibility and a 'good' hand in a monstrous sized pot.

Skalie's body language at the time was that he was keeping head in his arms chin on the table and making no eye contact and making his face as hard to see as possible.  I really am one for live tells and think they're massively under-estimated but often overused without enough evidence or samples (oh i saw a guy do this once as a bluff so this completely different guy must be the same).

I said I'd love him to tell me a story, I'd like him to even tell me a hand that would be worse and that as a bluff it would be sick.  But i really can't see him having worse here enough for this to be a call.

If we do bet smaller otr, or even consider a check, how much are we calling?

[SuuPRlim]

So far no one has even commented on my different options on the river... how often we would do them or why....

pretty sure I did.

options are in any spot Call, Raise or Fold.

Yes, he might be bluffing some Nth% of the time (pretty unlikely btw) but he rarely HAS the nut flush, and NEVER raises a worse flush so you are beaten, or his has gone of his lid with a bluff of some sort, what hands would he chk the flop and chk/call the turn with that he now would decide to bluff.    certainly one (would he open ATo utg? not so sure) - but he'll be well aware you CAN have houses in your range so I'm pretty sure he wont go off bluffing with a naked NF blocker here.

He'd never chk a jack on the flop so he can't be bluffing with a JACK (not sure he'd do that for such a small raise) so really he has very few if any hands he can be bluffing with, coupled with the fact he 100% never raises worse for value (and cbets his non nut fush draws OTF a decent % - not that there are all that man. J8 89 78 67 56 79 68 57 but he won't always open these UTG - so highly unlikely he;ll even HAVE these hands by the river yet alone value raise them)

I think this pretty much eliminates Call. (he is never bluffing or Vraising worse)

Raise - the merit to raising would be to make him fold the nut flush. As established the only NF combo's are A9/A8/A7/A6/A2 and he doesn't open all of those all the time UTG, he cbets them most of the time on the flop and he raises them on the river rarely, so the likelihood of him having the nut flush is very small. SO this rules out Raising.

Fold - He would open JTs (2 combos available) JJ, TT from UTG and he would chk them a lot on the flop, he would also play 44 this way (which I think he would open sometimes UTG)  in fact these really are the only combo's of hands that consistently match his line throughout the hand.

Fold, 100% of the time for me. I actually think its way way  closer to a chk back on the river, instead of a bet/call.  But I think he CAN have AA-QQ here some% and maybe a smaller flush (unlikely but not impossible) so I guess betting is ftw. I would have considered checking back though.

Also the river bet is way too big (as I said) you're in a spot where your villain CAN have nutted hands (he checks flop with initative - would usually bet with weak hands - and calls your bet on a quite scary turn card) I would feel when I get to the river I had the best hand  A LOT, but he really doesn't have much of a range that can reasonably call you here on the river, so fair enough to say "lets exploit" but exploit what? you're exploiting yourself by over-betting a weak range off the pot and iso'ing yourself against the (very thin) top of his range (which he will c/r and you have to fold) 18-21k for me OTR.

This discussion would be REALLY interesting if we had 44 lol - as the same thoery applies but we no longer block most legit NF hands (Ak/Aq) so I guess it's a call given the price but interesting to here some thoughts

[jgcblack]

we're oop..

[SuuPRlim]

we're oop..

dont think it alters my post much.

Lets not forget this guy was the 4th place winner in the championship of the world...

[skalie]

kd
If he genuinely had kq diamonds they it must have be king of hearts.
Either way nice fold!

[George2Loose]

Interesting!

[jgcblack]

Yer promise I had the mate as I was fistpumping the flop, picturing you with AA and I make   turn.

kinda sick if you did have  


Also, as mentioned above... kinda speculative raise otr if you thought you had a flush.......

[SuuPRlim]

Thing to remember is that skalie is losing his hair, this always induces people to commit mischief imo

[tikay]