dtd500 K flush vs Skalie

[jgcblack]

I'm seriously puking in my own mouth.... suprised he even raised what he thought was a flush....

let alone thought he had  ....

if i call there and still get AA vs KK next hand... I literally end the day with 450k.

Now that would have been a rungood day.

[jgcblack]

kd
If he genuinely had kq diamonds they it must have be king of hearts.
Either way nice fold!

sick level.

[George2Loose]

I'm seriously puking in my own mouth.... suprised he even raised what he thought was a flush....

let alone thought he had  ....

if i call there and still get AA vs KK next hand... I literally end the day with 450k.

Now that would have been a rungood day.

How would you get AA vs KK next hand if you called?

[jgcblack]

I'm seriously puking in my own mouth.... suprised he even raised what he thought was a flush....

let alone thought he had  ....

if i call there and still get AA vs KK next hand... I literally end the day with 450k.

Now that would have been a rungood day.

How would you get AA vs KK next hand if you called?

thats what happened.... vs Tom Langley.... coolered the mate I had a % in... - ggggreeeat!

[FrenchieBeni]

Discussed the hand with a friend and apparently he doesnt like overbetting the river either.
Am I completely off the track for saying that a good player in villain's shoes mite be more likely to call an overbet than a 20k ish bet/I-know-your-range-is-weak-so-i-bet-kinda-smallish-but-i-would-overbet-to-bluff-you-out bet with his bluffcatching range?

[George2Loose]

I know but if you call history changes. Who knows, cause and effect you might be out if you called with the K high flush

[SuuPRlim]

Am I completely off the track for saying that a good player in villain's shoes mite be more likely to call an overbet than a 20k ish bet/I-know-your-range-is-weak-so-i-bet-kinda-smallish-but-i-would-overbet-to-bluff-you-out bet with his bluffcatching range?

Well you're not really...However what can't lie is the maths/facts and figures. If our iconic villian has KK here, he could much more realistically call 20k than 32.6k as the success rate on the call needs to be lower.  This doesn't mean we should bet big without it and small with it, I think the overbet is generically viewed as stronger in these spots as it's actually often a less appealing buff as once again the success rate on it needs to be much higher. SO really we could bet 18-22k here with our entire range and given that Skalie's "CALLING" range is pretty weak it would work as well as a bluff as a value bet - basically the ultimate aim of any bet should be to put your oppo into a situation where they cannot make a good decision vs you, so when it neither a good call or a good fold with AA here, we win the hand irrespective of who has what and what happens.

Also off topic slightly but in my experience of live poker, the over-bet is generally thought off as very strong, for the simple reason that 85% of the time anyone does it (myself included) it's for value, the reason for this is that in most cases people llook you up more often live so in a lot of spots the best vacuum play is to bet big (obv always a tough strategy to balance over small samples, so no-one does) hence why it's always seen as strong.

[FrenchieBeni]

thanks for the answer

However what can't lie is the maths/facts and figures. If our iconic villian has KK here, he could much more realistically call 20k than 32.6k as the success rate on the call needs to be lower. 

yeh i think this stuff is right - im thinking too much theory bulls*** and in practice it gets called more often agree.

[SuuPRlim]

and im ALWAYS usually an advocate for betting big as default.

[Pinchop73]

So.

Which villain is lying?

I think it's John. ;p

[MANTIS01]

Think I would fold pre.

[Honeybadger]

Am I completely off the track for saying that a good player in villain's shoes mite be more likely to call an overbet than a 20k ish bet/I-know-your-range-is-weak-so-i-bet-kinda-smallish-but-i-would-overbet-to-bluff-you-out bet with his bluffcatching range?

Ok, this is kinda important so I hope I can explain it properly. It is about 'right thinking' as much as anything else.

What you are talking about here is the levelling war. And the key point is this:

You cannot successfully engage in a levelling war unless you have some reason to believe you have greater knowledge of the level of your opponent's thoughts than he does of yours.

I can't stress this enough. If you have specific knowledge of your opponent and/or some history then you have some raw data with which you can start to construct thought processes for your opponent. But without this you are just engaged in pure guesswork. And when we make 'clever plays' that are informed by pure guesswork they usually turn out to be FPS and spew.

Maybe this particular villain really will think exactly like you described, and thus will be more likely to call big bets than small bets. But the opposite is just as likely to be true, and he'll call small bets yet fold to big ones. When trying to take advantage of your knowledge of opponents and manipulate them accordingly, your knowledge must be more than just hopes and guesses.

In addition, +1 to what Lil'Dave said in response to the quote above.

[FrenchieBeni]

You can't successfully engage in a levelling war unless you have some reason to believe you have greater knowledge of the level of your opponent's thoughts than he does of yours.

I can't stress this enough. If you have a specific knowledge of your opponent and/or some history then you have some raw data with which you can start to construct thought processes for your opponent. But without this you are just engaged in pure guesswork. And when we make 'clever plays' that are informed by pure guesswork they usually turn out to be FPS and spew.
Your knowledge must be more than just hopes and guesses.

Makes a lot of sense.
Thanks for the answers.

[jgcblack]

Does anyone agree that betting slightly bigger than 21k also stops him 'taking off' more...?

thats definitely another piece of the puzzle to why we bet 32k, it achieves the following
- should get similar value from AA, KK, QQ, Jx, flushes
- shouldnt get raised often as a bluff because overbets are often nutty...
- trying to induce with 10-19k bet won't work enough to make it more profitable than this
- we have a K high flush which is a good hand, we should wager the maximum possible....?

[TL900]

fwiw, john has got the pot size wrong and who was in the hand.

blinds 1200/2400/300, skalie opens to 5k, I flat from MP, a 20 year old kid with a headphone in, not a 50 year old recreational player. (i assume he thought the guy to my left flatted and not me but w/e) both blinds call = 5k x4 + antes = 22700 on the flop (playing 9 handed)

flop is JdTdJh which is checked by all 4 players.

turn baby diamond, cant remember what. john bets 10,200. bb folds, skalie calls, i fold. 22700 + (10,200x2) = 43,100 total pot on the river. Makes a huge difference in regards to johns bet sizing which was 32,600 i believe otr.

river

IMO, i don't think were getting bluff raised otr very often at all. I bet something like 18k and snap fold to a raise (which i dont think is gona happen very often) and when it does come i expect it to be exclusively boats/quads. I feel villians range after checking round flop and calling turn is literally almost all pair based with the occasional AdKx AdQx combo. So i wana extract max value vs all those pairs but try to valuetown the lower pairs 55-88 just thinking were full of BS. (which john never is here, but ive seen some pretty bad calls before myself included)

Im pretty happy with b/f this river if I was the hero in this hand.