Calling for a split at best?

[FredW]

A friend of mine wanted me to post this and ask whether there is ever an argument for folding here? Seems really bad IMO but just thought i'd ask!

BTN/SB: $116.22
Hero (BB): $96.89

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J A
BTN/SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) A Q Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.00) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($15.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $100

[jezza777]

Calling all day !

[WotRTheChances]

More importantly, why are we not 3-betting pre? Or, put simpler... 3-BET PRE!

Losing to just 1 combo of AA and 1 combo of QQ.... call.

[scotty77]

More importantly, why are we not 3-betting pre? Or, put simpler... 3-BET PRE!

Losing to just 1 combo of AA and 1 combo of QQ.... call.

5 aces deck?

yh and call

[pleno1]

Flat pre as a std is definitely fine and not a jig issue, villain dependant theres lots of circumstances where we should 100% 3bet and lots of cases where we should flat

[cambridgealex]

it's gotta be standard to 3bet, and then if there's a good reason to flat then adjust?

[pleno1]

why has it got to be standard to 3bet? we know nothing about his calling frequencies and generally people start tighter than looser so can expect them to fold a9 and worse, I would fold a9 100% to a 3bet vs unknown.

[SuuPRlim]

surely this is a pretty simple fold?

[pleno1]

hes already going to fold a bunch of jacks that we dominate that he opens.

it also gives us a stronger range on lots of flops and we can credibly rep good showdown hands etc later.


i dont see too many merits in 3betting aj, he may also use hands liek qj, kj, j9 as 4bet bluffs.

[pleno1]

and ofc use his bad/marginal aces as 4b bluffs too and if we do get it in vs his range (3b/folding aj may make some people sad) then we are in terrible, terrible shape.

[Pinchop73]

surely this is a pretty simple fold?

We lose to one hand combo Dave? One, I mean, what are the chances? How do you warrant a fold? Especially HU. It's only one bullet, we don't even have a tournie life to risk?

[Beaver808]

surely this is a pretty simple fold?

Is this a level or do I need to quit poker?

[SuuPRlim]

absolutely not a level.

$88.90 to win $192.80 = 88.90/192.80 = 0.46 so we need to win 46% of the time, and trust me we win like >1% of the time. I could see you clicking the call btn here 300 times before getting shown a bluff, the reason no-one bluffs here is because it's SO likely you have an ACE, and very unlikely you will fold it should you do. When people are bluffing here, they are bluffing with an ace, trying to make you fold an ACE also. 

Let's not forget as well, the jam makes QQ more likely because if he has both other queens, and neither of the 2 aces, then it makes it VERY likely with how the hand has played that you do have an ACE. If he had an ACE himself, he'd bet smaller some % of the time to ensure that a Q (more likely you have a queen when he has an ACE albeit negated slightly be the flop and turn action) calls.


So we dont win anywhere near 46% of the time, we actually win close to 0% of the time and despite getting our money back a large amount of the time, getting our money back = a $7.50 profit and if you wanna risk $88.90 for $7.50 knowing that you pretty much never win more, and can sometimes lose $88.90 then even the most ambitious figures in the world couldn't show you a profit of more than $1-$2 on the call. If you are going to play 3,000,000 hands of HU over the next 25 years then by all means embrace variance and lock a couple of $s up, but I don't need the risk in my life lol

[pleno1]

yeh for the river, i probably fold too.

[cambridgealex]

risking $89 to win $7.50 so there must be about 12x more combos of Ax than QQ, which there obviously is.