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Author Topic: The credit crunch for dummies...  (Read 1582 times)
Beaver808
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« on: May 24, 2012, 02:39:36 PM »

I read this earlier and thought I'd share it...

Helga is the proprietor of a bar. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
...Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans).
Word gets around about Helga's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Helga's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in town.
...By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer - the most consumed beverages.
...Consequently, Helga's gross sales volumes and paper profits increase massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognises that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Helga's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

He is rewarded with a six figure bonus.

...At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These "securities" are then bundled and traded on international securities markets.
...Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as "AA Secured Bonds" are really debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

The traders all receive a six figure bonus.

...One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Helga's bar. He so informs Helga. Helga then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons but, being unemployed alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Helga cannot fulfil her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Helga's 11 employees lose their jobs.
...Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.
... The suppliers of Helga's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations; her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.
...Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

They all receive six a figure bonus.

...The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who've never been in Helga's bar.
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Josedinho
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2012, 11:00:43 PM »

No way Helga managed to order the beer for people to pay later.
If her clientèle were unemployed alcoholics she's definitely using last weeks sales for this weeks beer order, she might even be on cash on delivery.
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bobAlike
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2012, 02:06:30 PM »

There’s only one problem with this, the “new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers “ are not enough to cover the cost of the bailout and cannot be raised higher without causing a revolt. So what’s the government going  to do get more money? The only thing they can do and that is to print it...
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Ah! The element of surprise
EvilPie
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2012, 07:42:57 PM »

Just watch this:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1742683/
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2012, 04:56:45 PM »

Quite like the drinks analogy, but it falls over logic wise in a few places imo?  The local bank has already transferred it's risk to for drinkbond packaging.  The collapsed drinkbond value won't hurt as they have sold the bonds (although they get hit now on the original loan as local bank transferred the risk to them).

It seems to imply Helga's employees have lost their jobs because of the action of the bank, but in reality there would be no sales and no business without the credit terms.   The money seems to be a lose a few times as well in ths scenario.  For example Helga's bar suppliers go bust because she hasn't paid them, but that implies the money which Helga's bar borrowed has not been used and thus is available to repay the bank on demand?

The thrust of it is correct though.  Effectively the government underwrites dubious loans on the back of which activity traders generate bonuses.
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