Seems Simple, but is it?

[SuuPRlim]

Ok here's one for yooooou.

$10/$20/$40

The tightest player on the planet limps early position playing chunks (pretty stnd to assume the more flags = the nittier) I have JJ on the C/O and raise to $160 playing ~$13k.

SB (playing EVERY hand) calls playing ~$9k
BigBig Blind (mid-20s seems to be really good, but playing VERY solidly) calls playing ~$20k, nit calls.

Flop ($660) 

Chk. BBB (mid 20s guy) asks the dealer if it's 3 or 4way then donks for $380. Nit folds, I call SB folds.

Turn ($1,440)

he chks.

This seems like a joke simple spot. HOWEVER I'd like to know what people's plans for this hand are, and why.

The history is kind of non-existent between us, I'm assuming he thinks Im decent as i've been playing pretty good, I have been very active though (purely cos I have had the best seat) he doesn't appeared to have been out of line at all this game, although he certainly could have been. Been playing together for ~90minutes

[prettygreen]

Check behind and just bet huge on most rivers when checked to. If he bets again, fold. Prob views you as competant so if he donks into you again he prob has it. Think your hand is faceup. This Opinion is based on my limited experience at these stakes ($5nl)

[outragous76]

i ck back and call river (but Im a nit)

[pleno1]

685

[SuuPRlim]

i ck back and call river (but Im a nit)

this doesn't seem "nitty"

[SuuPRlim]

685

cmon Pleno I know you're a busy man but you can do better than this.

Betting why, doing what to a raise and doing what on what rivers?

[outragous76]

i ck back and call river (but Im a nit)

this doesn't seem "nitty"

only concerned about FD hitting on river, and even then not so much as he has no reason to slow down if he is going to donk flop. if he has the T god bless his cotton socks

[MC]

Check for me. Hard to see you getting 2 streets of value from worse. Prevents us getting bluff check-raised, and we can rep a missed flush draw on the river when clubs brick, and he might pay us off, as this would probs be our line with Ace high clubs.

[DMorgan]

I don't like donking here with whatever he has - I think its pretty reasonable for him to assume readless-ish that your range pre is reasonably strong, he won't be getting many folds from you and that you will be betting this flop a large %age of the time which sounds to me like great justification for not leading in his spot. For that reason I think we can assume that he doesn't have a ten cos this is a pretty nutsy spot to c/r Tx cos he looks full of shit and you also have a pretty strong preflop range.

As for what sort of range to assign him that leads flop checks turn - I think flush draws with at least one over to the ten make up the vast majority of it. I'd imagine that he recognises that given pre+flop action you're almost never folding this turn so he doesn't want to bet and get raised. I'd definitely bet here and I think you have two options:

1) Pure value vs his range - bet as much as you think he'll call with the KQcc etc hands that we think make up the vast majority of his range

2) Try to induce him to take off. Given that I think him pretty much never having a better hand is reasonable, we're more than happy to bet/call turn and call a big %age of rivers. I doubt that he'd take off though if he's as good as you think and has a decent idea of your range here.

Bet $790

[skolsuper]

Check back + decide river. You could argue for a check-raise in villain's shoes with a balanced range of tens and draws here, maybe not balanced but you aren't gonna know which one he's doing it with if it happens, so its as good as balanced and thus very difficult to play against. Think I'm folding most rivers to most bets tbh, barring a live read.

@dmorgan not sure how you can rule out better hand categorically, playing 300bbs deep cash disguise is absolutely paramount, it's very important to be able to determine which 'bad' plays you can make early on in a hand to reap greater benefits on later streets when the bigger bets go in. Therefore it's equally important not to fall into the trap of betting big money on a false read that someone could "never" have a certain hand.

[pleno1]

I don't think anybod goes for a donk into 5. People and then c/r turn this deep he's going to lead again with 10x as the board is so drawn and we can have a bunch of bluff catchers the more drawy the board the more people are usually inclined to bluff catch.

Ott I'd say we have the best hand close to 95% can rep floats and/or draws and he can also call with draws too. I'd bet any card lower than a jack Otr. I wouldn't worry about him c /r as he continues betting turn with his value range whilst nobody takes such ridiculous bluff lines.

Šorru for both shortish replies was on the grind x

[DMorgan]

Yeah 'pretty much never' was probably a bit strong, but given that he has such a good c/r spot on the flop with a ten I still think its unlikely that he plays Tx this way.

Agree now that turn is a fold to a c/raise since donk flop c/r turn seems to be the next most likely like he'll take with Tx. I still think that a flop c/r is the most likely line that he takes with Tx though.

[jezza777]

I think it's just a bet for value here. Our hand is probably good and he will call with worse and draws

[SuuPRlim]

wow this is weird.

When he checked the turn I thought it ~75% likely he had a TEN....

[SuuPRlim]

my reasons for thinking this were these...

1) I think he'd donk a ten OTF a LOT because of the guy in the SB who was literally playing EVERY hand, this means that a) the SB is more likely to call a bet from him and b) I am less likely to bet with total air because it will get through so infrequently - stuff with BD fd's and high cards etc I'd v likely just check and then try find a spot to be able to value bet something later on.

2) I think he would chk/call or chk/raise his flush draws more often than is default here (sepshly with overcards) because I can bet very wide for value OTF (because of the SB) the SB will call more often and with all weaker draws. He will raise some% as well as he can freeze me out with the weaker hands I have for value and value-own the SB decently well, IP against an EXTREMELY strong range.

Once I call the turn I agree my hand is a little face up - I have a FD, or an OP pretty much all of the time I'd flat 10x here OTF as well ofc to try keep the SB in but the Tx's I'm opening are mostly just the suited ones + of KT/ATo etc so not too many combo's I think he;ll think I'll have floated some VERY SMALL % as well, and if I have will almost always have been with a BD FD. something like  etc, so whereas he will have expected me to float hardly ever he will not expect that virtually all my floats will be semi-bluffing the turn here, I think he'd expect me to bet an OP a high % OTT but I will struggle to call 3 down here in this spot as my range gets weaker down the streets vs his which is pretty open. So it seems like a spot where for him the nut vacuum line would be to chk his Tx's and bet his draws. I literally can't think of anything else he checks here that he wants to donk 4way OTF exept possibly a flush draw which he is going to chk/fold - thinking that he won't be able to get me off an OP so just hoping it checks through and he gets to see a free river.

I don't think he has diamonds even 3% of the time and it seems like an ideal spot to bet 3 with a FD, if you're going to bet the flop 4 way, and the frequencies of which he donks ANY flopped flush draw are certainly questionable.

SO, once he has checked the turn, what else does he have that I have missed?