Villain in this hand is rbc_mike on Blonde. We have a bit of a dynamic going on, the basics of which being that we're both comfortable level 4+ thinkers and that we both know that the other is a bit nitty, so ranges are widened but nobody is going to randomly take off. Villain is to my immediate left but we've not had many bvb battles in this session as of yet. Villain has just lost a decent pot, so while he might not be blowing off steam here, it's not out of the realms of possibility that he thinks I think he is.
Villain is playing £300~ and I just about cover.
Dealt:
One limper to me otb, I raise to £5, villain in the sb raises to £20, limper folds I call.
Flop (£41):
Villain bets £28 I call.
Turn (£97):
Villain bets £52 I call.
River (£201):
Villain checks. We ??
Obviously betting here, but how much do we reckon represents what hand versus a thinking player and a player that probably expects me to bet a massive portion of my range when checked to on the river after calling two streets?
My first thought was the mash it all in, which is definitely what I'd do versus a fish as my hand very much looks like an AQ/AJ missed flush draw. Figured for this reason it would look pretty nutted to a decent player. My next thought was a £40-55 value bet for basically the opposite reasons, ie it's such an obvious value bet size that I shouldn't ever be bluffing but for that reason can be bluffing. Might get called by ace high, QQ/JJ.
I opted for £85 to basically merge these two thought processes, but I'm not sure if this still weights me towards value hands or what it does to the illusion of fold equity when I'm playing a little over £100 behind.
Thoughts?
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