Strange Spot in Warm Up

[The Camel]

Villiian is new to table and I have no notes on him

PokerStars Hand #83036737380: Tournament #588020016, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (750/1500) - 2012/07/08 20:12:39 WET [2012/07/08 15:12:39 ET]
Table '588020016 193' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: The Camel (94178 in chips)
Seat 2: Kadirov (150592 in chips)
Seat 3: Min-raiseFTW (17730 in chips)
Seat 4: mark2k69er (23384 in chips)
Seat 5: eh1960 (43755 in chips)
Seat 6: mcdudeson (37900 in chips)
Seat 7: Halfrek (40199 in chips)
Seat 8: snico 1 (83172 in chips)
Seat 9: 5101061212 (45644 in chips)
The Camel: posts the ante 150
Kadirov: posts the ante 150
Min-raiseFTW: posts the ante 150
mark2k69er: posts the ante 150
eh1960: posts the ante 150
mcdudeson: posts the ante 150
Halfrek: posts the ante 150
snico 1: posts the ante 150
5101061212: posts the ante 150
5101061212: posts small blind 750
The Camel: posts big blind 1500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Camel [ ]
Kadirov: folds
Min-raiseFTW: folds
mark2k69er: folds
eh1960: folds
mcdudeson: calls 1500
Halfrek: folds
snico 1: folds
5101061212: folds
The Camel: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
The Camel: checks
mcdudeson: checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
The Camel: bets 3000
mcdudeson: calls 3000
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
The Camel: bets 4500
mcdudeson: raises 18693 to 23193

We?

[redarmi]

Fold.  I don't see any combos he can have to do this that we beat without any notes on him. 

[pleno1]

if you call hes got it, if you fold hes bluffing :/

[Junior Senior]

i think we have to fold Keef.

[The Camel]

Yeah, I folded.

Weird limp though.

[Junior Senior]

any limp is weird in 2012 in that level of comp at that blind stage. KK maybe?

[outragous76]

Call for me, looks like a Sunday spazz with AA

[muckthenuts]

Call for me, looks like a Sunday spazz with AA

You think he might be value raising a worse hand? I can't really see it personally

[outragous76]

Call for me, looks like a Sunday spazz with AA

You think he might be value raising a worse hand? I can't really see it personally

the guy limps playing 24bbs on a sunday - -very much so

[DMorgan]

Fold for me. We're not ahead of his value range and people just don't take this line as a bluff often enough in my experience to make it a call given this price.

[the rage]

 My thinking is that if he limped with aces he would have probably bet the flop and / or raised the turn.
I would expect him to call the river with 87 or similar. (which you are chopping with). I wouldn't rule out him having the flopped flush, especially the ace high one.
 I would say he most likely has 98 suited.
 In my opinion, a river bluff from villian just doesn't add up with the way he's played the rest of the hand.
So it's a fold for me too.

[pleno1]

I'd sAy he has aces less than 1pc of the time.  Anywa if he has aa he has kk which beats us so cancels that out combo wise even though I think the frequency of aces will be a lot lower.


Also @junior this is generally a v v soft comp and your avg 10nl grinder would be plus ev

[outragous76]

But what are his value hands? He bets all flopped sets.

Infact you can argue that he bets any holding that actually beats us (by the river) on the flop - with the single exception of flopped flushes - and if he has limped something that flopped  a flush god bless hm!

[DMorgan]

I don't think that you can categorically rule out sets on the premise that he bets the flop with them 100% of the time. I think its unlikely but flopped sets make up a pretty small part of his value range. There are a ton of club combos and almost every better 8x.

Stuff like 'If he's flopped a flush then well played' just gives you excuses to station down that aren't based on EV at all. Given his limp pre its very hard to approximate a preflop range but it is very possible, in fact I'd say probable that he can have a ton of possible club combos. They make up the majority of his value range so dismissing them would be a very big mistake imo.

[outragous76]

I don't think that you can categorically rule out sets on the premise that he bets the flop with them 100% of the time. I think its unlikely but flopped sets make up a pretty small part of his value range. There are a ton of club combos and almost every better 8x.

Stuff like 'If he's flopped a flush then well played' just gives you excuses to station down that aren't based on EV at all. Given his limp pre its very hard to approximate a preflop range but it is very possible, in fact I'd say probable that he can have a ton of possible club combos. They make up the majority of his value range so dismissing them would be a very big mistake imo.

If we take an 8 out of his range and exclude cc hands there is not a single combo we lose to

in terms of the cc limped pre combos that we can remove these include

56
67
78
89

and any 1 gappers either side of that range

KJ
KQ
AK



so in his cc limping range, the reality is

Axcc
9Tcc
QJcc

I just think there is a narrow enough flopped flush range for us to call here. People spazz on Sundays for fun and on that basis, I am prepared to call in this type of spot where we arent at risk and if we are wrong we are more than healthy

From the villains POV, if he doesnt put us on an 8, why cant he jam most of his range? Are we calling off Kx? Given that most people are folding an 8 his bluff jam appears quite solid given the action