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Poker Hand Analysis
Too light?
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Topic: Too light? (Read 3374 times)
EvilPie
Hero Member
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Posts: 14241
Too light?
«
on:
July 09, 2012, 03:31:26 PM »
DTD 150 at the weekend. I've taken a few beatings so am in that shoving stack territory.
9 handed. Table is overly tight and will not call light. One spot to my right knows his ranges but everyone else probably folds A10 to a 10bb shove.
To give an idea of how tight it is I got looked up by AK with a similar stack to mine and chip leader with over 1M passed QQ!!
I've got 240k at 12k/24k + 4k
Blinds go to to 15k/30k + 4k in about 2 mins just in time for my big blind.
I've got 55 utg and decide to ship. This was actually the bottom of my range for shoving in this spot.
Too light or about right?
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mondatoo
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #1 on:
July 09, 2012, 03:33:49 PM »
It's fine, ul
Jamming all pairs at said table esp when blinds are about to go up.
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outragous76
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Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Too light?
«
Reply #2 on:
July 09, 2012, 03:34:41 PM »
seems fine
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EvilPie
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #3 on:
July 09, 2012, 03:39:14 PM »
Thought it was ok. What about non pairs?
KJs, most suited aces, A9?
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Motivational speeches at their best:
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mondatoo
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #4 on:
July 09, 2012, 03:53:48 PM »
Jamming about 20-25% so 22+,AT+, Axs, K6s, Q8s... would be my normal range, probably jam bit wider with described table though.
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pleno1
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #5 on:
July 09, 2012, 03:59:00 PM »
q8s seems a little wide? q10s would be at bottom of my range, but sure that you are correct
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
cambridgealex
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#lovethegame
Re: Too light?
«
Reply #6 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:03:05 PM »
K6ss utg 10bbs rly?
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pleno1
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #7 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:04:20 PM »
oh yeah would shove k10s+ k9 dpeending on table/when blinds are going up/payjumps
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
mondatoo
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #8 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:08:35 PM »
In turbos/180s that's definitely right. Obv live our ranges should be a little different but if people are really folding A9 then I don't think it can be wrong, especially when blinds are about to go up.
We have 5bbs eff. Didn't realise how big the ante was, I'd jam a little wider.
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EvilPie
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #9 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:15:34 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on July 09, 2012, 03:53:48 PM
Jamming about 20-25% so 22+,AT+, Axs, K6s, Q8s... would be my normal range, probably jam bit wider with described table though.
Shoving Q8s but folding A9o?
Seems a bit of an odd one tbh. I understand we like to have 'live' cards when we get called but this seems a bit of a stretch.
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mondatoo
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #10 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:18:12 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on July 09, 2012, 04:15:34 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on July 09, 2012, 03:53:48 PM
Jamming about 20-25% so 22+,AT+, Axs, K6s, Q8s... would be my normal range, probably jam bit wider with described table though.
Shoving Q8s but folding A9o?
Seems a bit of an odd one tbh. I understand we like to have 'live' cards when we get called but this seems a bit of a stretch.
We are gunna be crushed versus there ranges with A9 a lot, plus we can made dem straights and flushes with Q8s.
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Longy
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Go Ducks!
Re: Too light?
«
Reply #11 on:
July 09, 2012, 04:34:47 PM »
Yeah very clear shove and should deffo be shoving wider. At the risk of sounding like a broken record in these thread antes make so much of a difference here. 4k antes are bigger than normal here especially 9 handed.
Top 25% looks about right to me here.
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MC
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #12 on:
July 09, 2012, 05:02:50 PM »
+1 to Monda and Longy
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the rage
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Re: Too light?
«
Reply #13 on:
July 09, 2012, 06:55:49 PM »
My first thought was that shoving with pocket fives UTG, nine handed was just a bit too risky, although, the soon to increase blind levels make it a very difficult spot.
It almost seems like you're damned if you do and damned if you dont.
By my calculations, based on a calling range for all 8 villians of 99+
Hero (Matt Evilpie) Will win without showdown 76.44% of the time
win at showdown 4.55% of the time
lose at showdown 19.01% of the time
This gives an expected value of shoving of +23609 chips (1bb)
My calculations ignore the showdowns against two high cards, which are pretty much a flip anyway.
If villians lower their calling ranges, from 99+, AJ+, it would make it even closer.
Although i know the outcome, i wouldn't criticise folding or shoving. All things considered its a very close call IMO.
Unlucky Matt-Very Well Played.
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EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: Too light?
«
Reply #14 on:
July 09, 2012, 07:00:03 PM »
Got the ante wrong. My bad. It was 3k at this level but then 4k at the next level. Doesn't make too much difference I guess.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
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