$10k 6max icm spot

[NigDawG]

been meaning to post this one up, probably one of the toughest spot's i had all summer and i considered all 3 of my options.

5 handed payouts are as follows:

$1.1m
$700k
$455k
$300k
$200k

chip stacks are:

seat 1 UTG  2.7m
seat 2 CO    5.2m
seat 3 BTN  400k
seat 4 SB    5m
seat 5 BB    910k (me)

with blinds 80k/40k/10k

i was the short stack but got 3 shoves through at the end of the previous level all in one orbit (i.e. it may look like i don't care too much about the ladder) whilst the shortstack has made it pretty obvious he wants to ladder several times saying as much throughout the final. seats 1 & 2 are both young and good but seat 4 is an old guy not playing well and has done some things relating to stack sizes i would consider very bad.

folds to him in the sb and he looks up my stack where i tell him "i have 900k exactly including the blind" and he repeats out loud "900k...900k...make it 200"

i look down at  ....?

[cambridgealex]

I guess I'm allin?

[skolsuper]

To analyse this hand I would put it in sngwiz as an all in and if it says its a call then the all in is a freeroll better option. If it says fold then depending on how close it is it becomes either a fold or a shove imo, I don't like a call.

In-game, I sigh a little bit and probably shove.

[Rupert]

and he repeats out loud "900k...900k...make it 200"

right so we fold no?

[DMorgan]

Need more info about his general preflop tendencies but given that he has reason to believe that you're willing to get it in kinda light I'm folding here pretty quickly.

[judgedredd13]

sigh jam, old men can do redic shit. I've seen old men do this then fold stuff like a9 face up etc nothing would suprise me

[Ant040689]

Fold on the basis he isn't one of the younger guys who might do this bet to look as if they are betting 200k to stop you rr light. this guy assuming he isn't the best player may be doing this with Ax and realising crap I have to call the shove now if you do. I like the fold, against a competent player I am probs all in. Tricky spot regardless and is mightily based on your 'feel' at the time.

Had you a feel at all that you had any fold equity here at all? what percentage would you predict he would fold if so? must factor hugely.

[youthnkzR]

sigh jam, old men can do redic shit. I've seen old men do this then fold stuff like a9 face up etc nothing would suprise me

[outragous76]

Im folding for the following reasons:

Mr 400k has 4 hands to find a hand and go with it (interestingly you havent commented on his style here?) . If he fails to do so he is on 250k when his button is your bb.

Should it fold to him on the button, then we are priced in to call ATC vs his likely ATC shove.

So given that it appears a very marginal spot (maths wise), id heavily consider the external factors to laddering and who knows maybe finding a less marginal spot. This along with the "old guys speech" makes me fold here and ride out the next 5 hands, the potential ladder and who knows what thereafter?

[NigDawG]

Need more info about his general preflop tendencies but given that he has reason to believe that you're willing to get it in kinda light I'm folding here pretty quickly.

i'd been told pre game time he is "pretty tight but won't fold to 3bets", and having played ~3 hrs with him would say he was more aggressive than you'd expect but always seemed show up with a good hand pre.

previous to the final table he'd min raised or close to min raised as standard, but on the final itself i'd seen him 2.5x-3.5x open. today he has given me at least 1 walk, possibly 2.

it's definitely possible he would raise fold vs my stack, but he has seen me open shove 3 times before this so ofc should be aware. also the rail was big and loud, which i think would make him way less inclined to get all in with a bad hand vs me if that makes sense.

[pokerfan]

Purely from an icm perspective it's a fold.

[MC]

Purely from an icm perspective it's a fold

That's not true.

If he opens 100% and calls 10% it's a huge jam. Obviously that difference is not going to be realistic, but it's pretty much these two ranges which decide whether we can jam profitably here.

Also if he had jammed and jams 100%, it's a huge call.

Given your description of the villain and his tendencies I can only find a fold Chris. Doesn't fold to 3 bets, has previoisly given you walks, gave you a speech, etc.

We can only jam here if he folds too tight to our jam or is opening wide, and it doesn't sound like either is likely enough.

[pokerfan]

^Brammers last post itt swung it.

[DMorgan]

I think for this to be a jam he needs to have recognised that the shorty is nitting it up and so he can put you in a coffin by opening a huge %age here and in my experience the kind of guy that you describe just isn't going to adjust his opening range enough to make this a jam.

With his stack size and tendency not to fold to 3bets I don't really think he's going to be too likely to recognise that your value jam range is pretty damn tight and start making hero folds in this spot with Ax/small-mid pairs so I reckon its a fold.

[The Squid]

Is 'Nigdawg' just allowed to take over the hand analysis forum for yet another one of his brags.

Lock and ban imo