AA on awful board

[TL900]

PokerStars Hand #83456018290: Tournament #586788308, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (60/120) - 2012/07/17 17:16:23 WET [2012/07/17 12:16:23 ET]
Table '586788308 27' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Cranky<3 (2020 in chips)
Seat 2: mckinney1986 (3395 in chips)
Seat 3: juwaitut (3138 in chips)
Seat 4: cristyo1 (11819 in chips)
Seat 5: pa4enko (3566 in chips)
Seat 6: Nikita L. (5760 in chips)
Seat 7: Peanut172 (4349 in chips)
Seat 8: Mt.Spewmore (3620 in chips)
Seat 9: owainkk (6601 in chips)
Cranky<3: posts the ante 15
mckinney1986: posts the ante 15
juwaitut: posts the ante 15
cristyo1: posts the ante 15
pa4enko: posts the ante 15
Nikita L.: posts the ante 15
Peanut172: posts the ante 15
Mt.Spewmore: posts the ante 15
owainkk: posts the ante 15
cristyo1: posts small blind 60
pa4enko: posts big blind 120
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mt.Spewmore [ Ah]
Nikita L.: folds
Peanut172: folds
Mt.Spewmore: raises 120 to 240
owainkk: folds
Cranky<3: folds
mckinney1986: folds
juwaitut: calls 240
cristyo1: folds
pa4enko: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Mt.Spewmore: bets 420
juwaitut: calls 420
*** TURN *** [ ] []

villian is 28/15 over 35 hands, so kinda splashy. No other reads. Optimal play and why? plan for rest of the hand? All thoughts welcome.

[cambridgealex]

check flop for sure, check fold now

[Crotale]

I would have bet 3/4 of the pot on the flop to price out a draw, and if that was called I'd check fold the turn.

[david3103]

check flop for sure, check fold now

Can you expand on that a bit Alex please

Why do you check flop?

Have to check call presumably?

Seems to be putting opp on a pretty tight range if it's check flop and check fold turn.

[redarmi]

check flop for sure, check fold now

Seems to be putting opp on a pretty tight range if it's check flop and check fold turn.

Not really a tight range.  What range do you put him on that you beat on turn?

[david3103]

check flop for sure, check fold now

Seems to be putting opp on a pretty tight range if it's check flop and check fold turn.

Not really a tight range.  What range do you put him on that you beat on turn?

not beating any two clubs,
not beating QQ KK JJ
not beating KQ KJ KQ
not beating A10
nor 55

hmmm ok, there's a fair few hands we're losing to, especially by the turn, but I'm still not clear as to why Alex thinks we should check the flop? Oppo is potentialy 'splashy' and can he not have
AK
AQ
AJ
most of the pairs we're beating
a lot of the hands we are potentially ahead of call a flop bet and some of the hands we're behind to OTT raise the flop some of the time?

I'm usually quiet on these threads, but the original post from Alex looked very sure in action, but was short of reasons why. Now I've expanded on why I thought it worth asking I'll shut up and go back to worrying about having to drive in Central London next Monday morning after a late night at DTD

[redarmi]

Not at all....I don't post on pha very often either.

He does have AK, AQ, AJ sometimes of course but we have two aces so his combos are much less likely and he reraises pre or on this flop a lot with those hands too.

[pleno1]

Hey guys,

flop looks like a clear value bet and alot better can call, if we get raised them probably just fold, but definitely missing value from checking imo.

on the turn, I think we are just behind his range and have no equity vs a bunch of it. I think check/folding here is going to be the optimal play, even if we are ahead he often will have redraws and always at least a 2 pair draw which is not in horrific shape.

Usually with Aces you may find yourself in a way ahead/way behind spot, but in this spot its either way behind or just ahead, so just c/folding the turns makes most sense imo.

[DMorgan]

Definitely bet flop, we are only behind to QJ, 55 and flopped flushes. Its a $10 MTT, we're getting called by tonnnnnn of stuff on this board.

This is obviously a pretty bad turn but I'd expect a random player in a $10 MTT to play pretty honest, meaning he'll bet all of the hands that beat us and check most of the hands that we're still good against because they all have showdown value.

[34sooted5betshove]

i would fold because it looks like a scary board.

but then again. im a rock

[mapp888]

bet flop and i probably get it in.
turn is tougher. i probably check fold

[cambridgealex]

I'd sometimes check this flop for pot control, we're never comfortable getting raised, but I guess that's more of a tactic for higher stakes mtts or vs regs for balance.

I meant check/fold the turn as played. Not checking flop then folding turn, checking flop to call/call most non c runouts.

[Killerkilsby]

I think i prob raise more pre in these comps because the bb peeps min raises a high % of the time to a min so you can't asign a range.

[TL900]

I think i prob raise more pre in these comps because the bb peeps min raises a high % of the time to a min so you can't asign a range.

good job it was the button who peeled so you can assign him a range then

[Killerkilsby]

Ok, fair enough you can assign the button a bit of a range, but it is very wide especially at these levels.

Although it didn't happen this time my point was that the BB peels so much of the time to a min that id 2.5x it.