Blackjack

[MrMoves]

I'm interested as to why people think it's good to hit a 12 when the dealer shows a 2.  Regardless of count.

Away from that debate, the only way to never lose at Blackjack is to play on-line and never use your own money.  If you're a grindy type of poker player then you'll have no trouble making some pocket money from Blackjack.  I have for a few years now and have a nice collection of "go away, bonus abuser" emails from several places.

[matt674]

Was going to vote "sit down" but that didnt appear as an option. Monkeys dont like standing for too long, our legs aren't that strong.

I did start watching a program on the poker channel by some bloke from what looked like the late 70's or early 80's which was all about profitable blackjack play but as i have never played the game as you usually only ever win your money back (occasionally get 3 to 2 for a blackjack) i figured there were more profitable games out there to play.

I changed channels after watching for about 5 minutes otherwise i might have been able to help....... sorry

[Wardonkey]

Anything you read, that has any authority, will tell you to hit.

Resources have even been posted on this thread.

Mathematically it is close, but definate, HIT!

[Sheriff Fatman]

The difference in strategy for upcards of 2 and 3 relate to the relative probabilities of the dealer busting/not busting.  With 2's and 3's there are more ways for him to avoid busting than with totals of 4 and above.

For example, with a 2 showing, the dealer's 'safe' range is a total of 15-19.  Consequently, the only way he busts in 2 cards is to hit runner runner 10's (as in Tens and paint cards).  The only other way he can bust is to do so in more than 2 cards.  Statistically there are more ways for the dealer to not bust than there are to bust.  Consequently, its not a safe strategy to stick on 12 and hope he busts as the odds are against you.

The reason the strategy flips at a total of 4 is that this is where the relative probabilities 'flip over'.  As the dealers total increases from 2 to 6 there are increasing numbers of ways for him to bust compared for him to hit safe totals.  Once he reaches an upcard of 7 the odds favour him once more as he can now reach 17 in one card.  Consequently, there are far more combinations of cards which are now favourable to the player on totals of 4-6.

The other factor in the decision is your own total, as you have to act first.  On a total of 12 there are only the 10's that cause you to bust so there are plenty of safe cards for you to hit.  However, on 13 through to 16 there are increasing numbers of bad cards.  This is why the basic strategy decision to hit on 12 is different compared to that to stand on 13-16.  To win you first have to avoid busting on your draw and then have the dealer bust afterwards.

Basic strategy was derived from simulations being done over millions of hands and it simply lists the best statistical option (in Blackjack there is always a mathematically correct decision).  In some cases the 'best' decision is the one which loses least money as some scenarios are unfavourable to the player, as is the case here.  However, the fact is that you simply have a better expectation here by hitting than you do by standing.

Sheriff

[Heid]

But I use basic basic strategy<g>

I do see what you are saying, but in the heat of the moment, it is safest to stand.

Anything under a 6 and I'm waving over my cards.

[Wardonkey]

Sigh

[Indestructable]

Thanks for reply Sheriff. I am convinced more than ever.
Hit.

[Sheriff Fatman]

But I use basic basic strategy<g>

I do see what you are saying, but in the heat of the moment, it is safest to stand.

Anything under a 6 and I'm waving over my cards.

If you are going to publish Heidi Strategy you need to make it look sufficiently complicated and impressive.

How about 'Anything under a 6 and I'm waving over my cards, except on Thursdays, a full moon or if the dealer has a moustache (especially so if female), in which case hit due to bad karma.' 

Sheriff

[Heid]

What about if I just say that I don't play unless I am with Rainman, and if he's not there I just play 3 card poker?

Failing that, if in Vegas 25c 9/6 ddb VP will do me just fine

[Sheriff Fatman]

What about if I just say that I don't play unless I am with Rainman, and if he's not there I just play 3 card poker?

Failing that, if in Vegas 25c 9/6 ddb VP will do me just fine

Only 98.98% payback for 9/6 DDB I'm afraid.  Much better looking out for the mythical 10/6 version at 100.06%!

Sheriff

[Heid]

I know where there are 10/6, but I aint telling you

[Sheriff Fatman]

I know where there are 10/6, but I aint telling you

Hmmm, you know where 10/6 is but you choose to play 9/6!  Heidi VP Strategy is right up there with the Blackjack version then!   >:?

Sheriff

[Heid]

10/6 is a dollar though

I am a quarter kinda gal

[Mr_Turhapuro]

Blackjack player-----mug punter! >:?

Most players when going to a casino, have an amount in their mind that they are willing to spend (lost already ) and from the casino games selection, I choose BJ every time and it's 99.5 basic strategy return percentage.

[MrMoves]

What makes me stand is the fact many cards are not going to improve my hand (to tie with or beat the dealer should he not bust) and many cards are going to bust me.

Bust cards: T,J,Q,K (over 21)
Non-improvers: 2,3,4,A (16 and below)
Hand improvers: 5,6,7,8,9 (17 - 21)

8 types of crap or bust cards vrs 5 types good cards, the 5 card is just about good as it's a chop at best if the dealer doesn't bust.

How many times will you take a card and still have a crap hand (13 - 16) ?  In which case it was pointless to take a card as you still need the dealer to bust out.
How many times will you take a card and bust out ?
How many times will you hit 17 - 21 for a strong/winning hand ?

No count = no card for me.

Interesting question though.