Weak or too much credit?

[Bully87]

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, August 24, 08:12:49 ET 2012
Table Guliyi (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $53.12 USD ) - VPIP: 60, PFR: 13, 3B: 14, AF: 3.0, Hands: 15
Seat 3: Player3 ( $51.83 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 14, AF: 0.4, Hands: 50
Seat 5: Player5 ( $97.58 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 2.4, Hands: 904
Seat 6: Player6 ( $21.62 USD ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 2.6, Hands: 261
Seat 8: Player8 ( $26.17 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 4.0, Hands: 59
Seat 10: Hero ( $100.32 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 2.7, Hands: 2009
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  Ah ]
Player3 folds
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Player8 folds
Hero raises [$1.25 USD]
Player1 calls [$1.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
Hero bets [$1.50 USD]
Player1 raises [$5.62 USD]
Hero calls [$4.12 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
Hero checks
Player1 bets [$14.24 USD]
Hero???

My general thoughts are that villain is typical loose passive and never bluffing here but his aggression post flop is I'm reading it right is like 4.0 (after this hand having watched him a bit more, now 59/7/4.0)
More of a 50p thread I guess...most people do a fold here?

[CAI]

I am a complete fish myself, so don't take any advice.

Is there any reason he cannot have KQ/AQ here, also it's blind blind, could be playing a bunch of combos quite strong, 89s/J9s/KJs/A10/K10 could still think he is good here.

That bet on the turn rules out sets as he shouldn't be trying to scare you off your hand.

That would be all the hands going through my head, so I don't think I would be folding Aces yet. Will be interested to hear the sickos destroy my thought process and why

[rfgqqabc]

I think the biggest reason to fold is his bet size. It doesn't scream protection, it screams, i don't care what you have, I'm winning and the money is going in. I might call the turn, with the intention of folding if villain carries on firing, simply because its not a bluff, and we don't beat enough of his value range here, and he isn't bluffing enough. Brutal spot though, but remember money is made at these stakes by folding when opponents show strength, and getting massive value out of nut hands when we can. Aces are pretty sweet, but he has potted the turn- and we don't beat a lot when someone so passive does this.

How many hands is the agg factor from?

[Bully87]

I am a complete fish myself, so don't take any advice.

Is there any reason he cannot have KQ/AQ here, also it's blind blind, could be playing a bunch of combos quite strong, 89s/J9s/KJs/A10/K10 could still think he is good here.

That bet on the turn rules out sets as he shouldn't be trying to scare you off your hand.

That would be all the hands going through my head, so I don't think I would be folding Aces yet. Will be interested to hear the sickos destroy my thought process and why

Everything is possible, obvs sample size is low but I continued to watch him and he's a typical loose passive...which for the norm I take any aggression to meaning I'm beat. Solely think he has QT here. Never turning J9/KJ into a semi bluff etc.

The sample size by the end of playin was like 80. Low obvs but even after that small sample I can see he's pretty much never going to get creative.

I did a fold and was quite comfy thinking I was behind. c/r flop and pot turn basically means I'm beat. Unfortunately didnt go on to stack him later on.

[DMorgan]

If the hand history is correct and the HUD stats are just from a 15 hand sample then you can't really put much stock in those numbers. 60/13 over 15 hands is reasonable to label him as probably being loose passive but postflop stats mean absolutely nothing over that sample.

Preflop numbers indicates loose passive and a loose passive player isn't taking off here with much that you beat.

Bigger pre, bigger on the flop, fold turn imo.

[Bully87]

Dan, you 4x bvb OOP with the nuts? I can only assume this is incase they try a resteal and we can bomb them if they do?

[DMorgan]

Sorry, read the hand history wrong and thought you 2.5x'd pre. 3x is fine, could definitely make an argument for going bigger vs this opponent though. Seems pretty plausible given current info that 4x may well be better though. Something to experiment with bvb vs stations but I'd expect that when he's peeling in position bvb, a lot of unknown villains at 50NL will be reasonably price insensitive

[discomonkey]

bigger pre, as played just keep clicking call till the computer turns your hands over and declares you the winner