MilliDonk's First Goalscorer Accas

[millidonk]

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

1 point ew @ 6/1 1/3rd odds place. Place bet returns 3 points if not FGS. Say more than 5 goals and your pick returns nil if 6 or later goal.

90 mins bet 11/10 2 points bet (same outlay as 1point ew bet)  scores and return is 4.2 points

if that's the explanation to Millys question I still don't understand it lol.

You get more back putting 2 points backing score in 90 mins than 1 point ew on FGS (unless your pick scores first goal!)

Yea but if he scores first you get much more and if in 90mins only marginally less.

[redarmi]

Hi Red, great post and really appreciate it. Completely agree the value is to be had with the e/w bets and i think there is money to be made with some proper research.

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

Yes things I will be taking into account are form, specialit knowledge, set piece takers, historical results and also gut feeling.. Oh and I plan to check starting line ups this next week.

Think the Lucky15 would be better for more consistent small returns, but am gonna stick to the holy grail shots for a couple of months.

They are priced differently for a couple of reasons.  Firstly the ninety minutes price includes all goals where as with most firms the each way is only the first 3 or 5 goals.  Secondly, the place price should be weighted to the number of goals in the game but obviously the firms can't change their each way terms for every game so you do get inefficiencies.  By way of example a player that scores roughly 30% of his teams goals in a game where they are even money and goals are 5/6 eachunder over 2.5 should be 13/8 to score in that game.  If you adjust goals to under over 3 goals 5/6 each  should be 11/8 but their actual price to score first doesn't change much.  Hope that all makes sense.

[millidonk]

Yea cheers Red and Si, I didn't really take into account anytime there would be more than 5 goals at all and say it was Newcastle v Liverpool and we all expected another 4-4 thriller they can't adjust the terms of their FGS e/w bet so they adjust the 90 player minute accordingly. All makes sense now. Thanks. Really excited about the prospect of this thread.

What do people use as the most reliable source of squad news/starting line up? I've always tended to use skysports and the premiership site. Am I just better just going for 3pm kickoffs and putting bets on as late as possible? If I try and include Friday night, early kick offs or Sunday matches I could be a bit out of touch.

[redsimon]

I look at loacal paper websites sky and bbc mostly...first job is to pick out a number of games where suggested over 2.5 goals and choose FGS from favourites in those games.










Alternatively Ill get the pin out at 6.45 pm and punt

[AceHighSuited]

Hi mate,

I'd think you would be more profitable doing this just backing the win part and picking strikers at clubs who a prolific in front of goal. 

If your just doing this for fun I'd concentrate on TV games also.

My bet fwiw would be:

RVP - Man U
Tevez - Man City
Ronaldo - Real Madrid
Messi - Barcelona
Hooper - Celtic
Torres - Chelsea

If you do something like that then you could also do another bet for smaller stakes with outsiders in the market. 

[redsimon]

No FGS on Footy tonight too many potential no shows with reserve sides being put out

Will give it a punt Saturday

[horseplayer]

not an acca but nicky maynard 5-1 bet365 unlimited eway places is very fair this evening

[horseplayer]

LOVELY

[millidonk]

Completely missed this. Very nice horsie!!

Would very much appreciate this sort of input on a Saturday afternoon. 

[horseplayer]

i will be back mate

thanks

[redsimon]

If you back no goal scorer each way 1/3 first 5 do you win place part if theres less than 5 goals? Or am I missing something?

[millidonk]

Wouldn't think so Si. Although I'm not sure. Wasn't actually aware no goalscorer could be backed e/w??

Might have to change the title to 'MilliDonk's Wknd footy Accas' as I have decided to add an overs acca into the mix. This is my lot though. Will not be punting anymore than £20 on footy per wknd. (Exlcuding my nit thread bet which is currently on bet 3 and is a separate roll entirely)

I have chosen all games where bookies have priced up unders and overs the same. I personally think the trend at the moment massively favours overs really. This method would probably get slated by the shrewdies/maths guys, but its a tenna and a bit of fun. I love trying new things, gotta spec to acc etc.etc.

So todays Overs looks like this:

£7.00 6 fold acca and 6x 0.50p 5 folds

Wrexham v Newport County
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Bristol Rovers v Morecambe
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Yeovil v Doncaster
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Bury v Notts County
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Leeds v Blackburn
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Crystal Palace v Sheffield Wednesday
Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6

On the FGS bets now, really enjoying the research, but still happy to take any of your suggestions. Especially horspieplayer  , guy is on megaform with these!

[horseplayer]

Hi Milli

few i fancy today at prices in the championship

The lucky 15 for me is

Sean Murray watford 16-1

Wayne Bridge brighton 50-1

Adlene Guedioura forest 16-1

reda johnson sheff wed 20-1


My main goalscoring bet is in league one jamie paterson for walsall is a young winger/striker i am told he may be upfront today even if he isnt he will be to the right of a front three, 3 goals in 40 career games is hardly inspired but reports i have read have said he looks a more direct player this season

bet365 go 16-1 which is double elsewere had some of that and 13-2 anytime


good luck today

[redsimon]

No Goalscorer is win only so scrap that idea

I've had a punt on following:

Samir Nasri  13/2 Man City Vs QPR

Kevin Nolan 8/1 West Ham Vs Fulham

Tom Ince 6/1 Blackpool Vs Leicester
 
Peter Lovenkrads 5/1 Birmingham Vs Peterboro

Ryan Cresswell 20/1 Southend Vs Wycombe

Steven Naismith 9/1 Everton Vs WBA

Jermain Defoe 4/1 Spurs Vs Norwich

Ew bets

42 5p ew doubles

70 5p ew trebles

70 5p ew fourfolds

42 5p ew five folds

£11.20 spent

Max return £63571.27

[millidonk]

Not even a 10p acca just in case simon? Would bag you 1/4 milli..

Celtic v Hibernian
Kris Commons @ 4/1
Derby v Watford
Sean Murray @ 12/1
Crystal Palace v Sheffield Wednesday
Kyle De Silva @ 14/1
Manchester City v Q.P.R.
Yaya Toure @ 7/1
Nottingham Forest v Charlton
Adlene Guedioura @ 14/1
Tottenham v Norwich
Moussa Dembele @ 12/1

GL all of us!!! Hopfully Sean Murray and Dembele can do the job on their debuts. Let the sweats begin!