MilliDonk's First Goalscorer Accas

[smashedagain]

lol - i used to do these all the time at uni but did Lucky 15's instead - always pick players 12/1 and over.

never binked one ever! although had a good few singles and doubles return.  some bookies do triple odds on singles too for extra value.

Do you like killing dreams you miserable sod.
Doing a tenner a time on these has to be better than any staking threads he might put up

[redarmi]

First goalscorer betting can be profitable if you approach it correctly.  Stick to the front of the market.  Players at 10/1+ can be value but it is rare and you need to have a very good eye for the market to spot them.  The each way portion of your bet is much more likely to be value if you go for players in teams who are expected to be both in high scoring games and expected to score a higher proportion of those goals.  If you can find someone that also scores a high proportion of their teams goals (30%+) or can be expected to going forward then you can have a goldmine.  A good example recently was van Persie for Arsenal.  Often was 3/1ish but that was often a great price.....similarly Messi and Ronaldo have often been value although less so these days with more quotes of 2/1.  Beware of players that seem to score a lot of goals but don't take set pieces or penalties.  Very prolific midfielders who take free kicks and penalties can be value too.  I would do lucky 15's because they really do add a significant edge especially if you can find somewhere that will do you three times the odds one winner.

If I remember I will try and post a few players that seem to fit the bill.  Off the top of my head Ba and Cisse for Newcastle especially if you knew only one was going to start, Jelavic for Everton, Torres for Chelsea and possibly Bent for Villa but I would want to see them scoring more goals first but in cup comps he would be decent against weaker teams if starting.

[millidonk]

lol - i used to do these all the time at uni but did Lucky 15's instead - always pick players 12/1 and over.

never binked one ever! although had a good few singles and doubles return.  some bookies do triple odds on singles too for extra value.

Do you like killing dreams you miserable sod.
Doing a tenner a time on these has to be better than any staking threads he might put up

Ouch. Too soon Herbie, too soon. Although if you look at some of the hands you will realise we we were mightly unlucky not to get the lot.

[millidonk]

Hi Red, great post and really appreciate it. Completely agree the value is to be had with the e/w bets and i think there is money to be made with some proper research.

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

Yes things I will be taking into account are form, specialit knowledge, set piece takers, historical results and also gut feeling.. Oh and I plan to check starting line ups this next week.

Think the Lucky15 would be better for more consistent small returns, but am gonna stick to the holy grail shots for a couple of months.

[craigbetts]

My first ever first goalscorer bet had a touch of value about it, qpr were playing at home midweek in the early 90s and the greatest header of a football was priced up at 8/1 to bag the first. The player in question was the goal machine Sir Lesley of the Ferdinand and in todays markets for the game would be priced 9/2. FGS markets were I'm there infancy and the odds compilers were way off, happily enough Les did what came naturally and bagged the first.

Red knows his stuff, but I always thought the value had been squeezed on the Rooneys, RVP's and the Messi's. I like the look of goalscoring Centre Halves, Vidic, JT, Ivanovic and Agger although this is not based on research.

[redsimon]

Im going to have a shot at this in Capital One Cup games if they offer FGS in all the games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like a bit of fun for a tenner

You need to check the starting line ups but will be a few high scoring games in these.

[tikay]

Im going to have a shot at this in Capital One Cup games if they offer FGS in all the games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like a bit of fun for a tenner

You need to check the starting line ups but will be a few high scoring games in these.

The matches are tomorrow, & most of them have the FGS markets up already.

Just go to this link, click on the individual "Game", then go to "More".


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup

[smashedagain]

lol - i used to do these all the time at uni but did Lucky 15's instead - always pick players 12/1 and over.

never binked one ever! although had a good few singles and doubles return.  some bookies do triple odds on singles too for extra value.

Do you like killing dreams you miserable sod.
Doing a tenner a time on these has to be better than any staking threads he might put up

Ouch. Too soon Herbie, too soon. Although if you look at some of the hands you will realise we we were mightly unlucky not to get the lot.

I know you know that I am only kidding or at least I hope so. Let's not be results orientated buddy as you are gonna sell out your future staking threads no problems. The added laughs you return far out way any financial ones from binking the Sunday millions anyway. I can't see you ever struggling at least untill you have done your million chip dance anyway....


I know you can take the abuse and up for a laugh. So wanted to post in other peoples threads " wait a minute what do you mean you bust level 3 but perfectly happy with how you played and confirmed softest field ever.  You told us you represented excellent value at 1.6 and despite only having 1 herbiemob flag you managed to con everyone into chucking money away on you while you got drunk"

[millidonk]

Im going to have a shot at this in Capital One Cup games if they offer FGS in all the games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like a bit of fun for a tenner

You need to check the starting line ups but will be a few high scoring games in these.

Wiiiiiiiiiii. <3 redsimon. #nolongeralonewolf GLGLGLGL

lolz Herbie, obv knew you were messing. You know me well enough to know there isn't that much I take seriously. Oh and cheers for the massive bok at ever selling out again. Will be expecting you to put up some monies.

Only 2 more bank holidays in 2012 which are Xmas day and boxing day.. got the family over so wont be able to play then. Probs next time I play a remotely decent sched will be March 29th 2013, will call it Good Friday Getout as no doubt I will be massively under it. Standard. 

[smashedagain]

Lol. I am a bit under it and between rolls ATM mate but think the only debts I have is for Tikays wsop next year and still owe Trigg a score from a book he ran so would always find $ for you if ever struggling (but won't be). Don't leave it too long because your staking/nitty/Acca threads are as popular as any other and great for the site.

[millidonk]

Lol. I am a bit under it and between rolls ATM mate but think the only debts I have is for Tikays wsop next year and still owe Trigg a score from a book he ran so would always find $ for you if ever struggling (but won't be). Don't leave it too long because your staking/nitty/Acca threads are as popular as any other and great for the site.

stop, I'm blushing. You must have written that without seeing me abusing you in the discomonkey thread. wiiiii

[smashedagain]

Lol. I am a bit under it and between rolls ATM mate but think the only debts I have is for Tikays wsop next year and still owe Trigg a score from a book he ran so would always find $ for you if ever struggling (but won't be). Don't leave it too long because your staking/nitty/Acca threads are as popular as any other and great for the site.

stop, I'm blushing. You must have written that without seeing me abusing you in the discomonkey thread. wiiiii

Lol yeah just been there. Maybe we should get a room

[redsimon]

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

1 point ew @ 6/1 1/3rd odds place. Place bet returns 3 points if not FGS. Say more than 5 goals and your pick returns nil if 6 or later goal.

90 mins bet 11/10 2 points bet (same outlay as 1point ew bet)  scores and return is 4.2 points

[smashedagain]

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

1 point ew @ 6/1 1/3rd odds place. Place bet returns 3 points if not FGS. Say more than 5 goals and your pick returns nil if 6 or later goal.

90 mins bet 11/10 2 points bet (same outlay as 1point ew bet)  scores and return is 4.2 points

if that's the explanation to Millys question I still don't understand it lol.

[redsimon]

One thing i find confusing is that a player can he had at 6/1, so e/w for 1/3 is 2/1 but same player is 11/10 in the 90mins market. How does this work? Surely it makes sense to just punt FGS market Instead. I saw a few examples of this so I am assuming I am missing something.

1 point ew @ 6/1 1/3rd odds place. Place bet returns 3 points if not FGS. Say more than 5 goals and your pick returns nil if 6 or later goal.

90 mins bet 11/10 2 points bet (same outlay as 1point ew bet)  scores and return is 4.2 points

if that's the explanation to Millys question I still don't understand it lol.

You get more back putting 2 points backing score in 90 mins than 1 point ew on FGS (unless your pick scores first goal!)