Nit shoves into big draw, can we call?

[rfgqqabc]

6 Left in Samurai- 275$ buyin. 46 entries, 5 get paid, 925$ for 5th.

Stacks are: 60k (me), 40k, 35k, 40k, 20k, 8k.

Blinds 400/800

40k stack opens cutoff to 1600, i flat  from the button.Sb, a Nit, 11/9 over 200 hands of 6max poker, including a decent amount 4 handed, peels from 20k stack. BB folds.

Flop 

Nit jams for 18k into 6.8k

Not seen anything like this before from him, has played a few bizarre hands but really early on. Seemed pretty inexperienced,  peeling min 3b from 12bb stack having minned early on, then folding KQ5 board etc.

Can we call? His range?

[TL900]

3bet or fold pre. fold now.

you wana be the one pushing the action with your stack

[rfgqqabc]

3bet or fold pre.

This tourney was strange in the way it ran almost like a live tourney. As we made the final table, i noted the guy on my right, cutoff in this hand, was someone i 5b bluffed earlier, and had 3b him a few times. When he opened here, I decided my hand played well enough post to peel, especially with the nit and a tight shortie behind. Villain had shown he would 4b/fold, and I didn't want to 3/5b him at this point. I felt like i could manipulate him post, and had already won 1/2 pots off him, and had general momentum. Is it still 3b/f pre? Not saying your wrong here, but i did have significant reasons to believe a peel was profitable here, am i wrong?

[SubZERO]

I'd 3bet pre too, but if you have significant reason to do so then that sounds ok (however, I'd still 3bet). I'd fold now though

[cambridgealex]

People folding now need to run some equities through poker stove.

[TL900]

stack preservation and power > flipping (at best) for alot of cheddar

[the rage]

I would say that villian's likely range is KQ,   ,   ,   ,   ,  plus a very slight chance of K5ss.
I think that, all things, considered, villian is more likely than not to be jamming with either two pairs or a flush draw/top pair combo.
Sometimes he will show up with the bare flush draw but i dont think that you need to risk 2/3 of your stack to find out if this is one of them.

[discomonkey]

seems like a fold, we are chip leader on the bubble and a guy who is probably scared of the bubble 3x pot shoves and we have ace high... just fold and bully the table

[Honeybadger]

People folding now need to run some equities through poker stove.

Well this depends on what range you give him of course. And he has been labelled a nit... so it needs to be a pretty tight range! I'm struggling to create a realistic range for villain on pokerstove in which we have equity to call.

Also of course, there are other considerations in a tourney, which I know that you know. If you are have a good stack and are dominating a table then there is an added vig behind 'tournament life' considerations - although in general I hate all this valuing your tournament life crap. So if you somehow created a realistic range for the nit that gave you a slightly profitable chipEV call here then sometimes you should still fold.

It can work the other way too of course. The Gigabet Theory (you guys call it Block Theory now, right?) means that in some unique spots you can profitably take a -chipEV gamble because this will be compensated for in implied tournament EV if you build your stack to a certain size or otherwise alter a particular dynamic at your table.

[SuuPRlim]

this is the kind of stuff i always do pre-flop and everyone tells me im terrible.

[cambridgealex]

Are we all agreed this is

a) Never two pair+
b) VRarely AK

Therefore is range is capped at Kx and most certainly includes worse flush draws. Seriously, I've seen a million times even supposed nits on .fr shoving here with 67hh. There's no way this is a fold! We have 12 outs AT WORST, and can be absolutely crushing him. In fact, I'd expect him to have a worse flush draw way more often than Kx. Folding would be totally criminal imo.

[MANTIS01]

For me pre is 3bet or fold dependant on history. Calling creates a decent situation for blinds to jam and with this hand we see even hitting a near perfect flop still leaves a tough decision. More value in winning the pre flop game in this short-handed bubble situation imo. As played would call.

[Honeybadger]

Are we all agreed this is

a) Never two pair+
b) VRarely AK

Therefore is range is capped at Kx and most certainly includes worse flush draws.

I disagree with all of this. Not saying you are wrong and I am right... I don't know either way. You play many more online tourneys than me and I have never played on Pokerstars.fr, so it is likely that your read on population tendencies is much more accurate than mine. I just went with the fact that OP labelled villain a nit and so gave him a very tight jamming range.

Obviously if you give him a fairly wide range that includes plenty of FDs and very few strong made hands then a call is profitable.

[rfgqqabc]

Wasn't .fr was blackbelt poker. When i say the sb was nitty i mean, i opened 100% of bvb situations from 12 down to 6 and he folded every single time. So not just nitty, super nitty. I was the same as Al when i called, but the more i thought about it, he is SOOOOOOOOOO tight, that maybe it is a fold. He had AK here, which definitely shows he could have it here, at least some % of the time. No clue what he does with hands like JhTh or Th9h, might even fold pre. The thing is, I can't just put him on AK here, but does that mean its a call. I stoved a few ranges and couldn't get more than 45% equity vs his range, but that depends on the range being right. Thanks guys, anymore thoughts would be appreciated.

Smashed a heart on the turn by the way. Fortune favours the brave

[Whollyflush]

Thing is this isn't a cash game.

You've already established hes super nitty, its on the bubble (big bubble for an online mtt) and you have the chip lead. You should be able to accumulate chips very easily preflop in this spot without having to make a marginal call. I'd suggest that losing this hand hampers your prospect of winning the mtt more than winning the hand giving you a further advantage.

Also 3b pre is likely best given stack sizes, btn will be wide here and will be constrained by ICM implications.