Strictly Come Dancing 2012

[Tal]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-19486965

Stage school, actress, musicals

Likely to be a natural dancer

One to watch

She didn't look too bad on that Let's Dance, in fairness. It's never a question of how they start, tho. All about potential and application.

[Ironside]

never heard of her

[TommyD]

I get force fed this on an annual basis.  As a result I've had to get into it to survive with my sanity.

Gutted Claudia isn't doing It Takes Two anymore, genuinely loved her wit and unerring enthusiasm.  Zoe Ball was ok last year but no Claud.  Not sure if she is the full time presenter on it now (she was covering last year as Claudia was heavily pregnant).

Disliked Aleshia as a judge but disliked Darcy's occasional appearances more.  The judges have become a parody of themselves and the only one I can really get along with is Craig.  If you watch the American version just once then you see Len takes the role of the nasty judge, as opposed to the nice judge here.  It kind of shines a light on all of the fakery involved.

Of course it's humorously ironic that the BBC caused such a hoopla dropping Arlene for Alesha only for the latter to use SCD as a stepping stone up the reality TV ladder.

[Tal]

Zoe is taking over It Takes Two now full time, although Claudia will keep her Results Show role. I also loved Claudia, particularly the Len's Masterclass segment where she tried to Volta in 6 inch Christian Leboutain platform stilletos. Hard enough in trainers!

[Tal]

Len plays the nasty judge because the other two are so gushing - especially Carrie-Ann Inabo - it is shameful. The US version has so much less content in the dances and the marks are much higher. Len steps in to say "I didn't like all that flouncing about at the start [turns to dismiss the boos] BUT, when you got into hold, your posture was good, your footwork was excellent and it wasn't bad at all"

My mom won't even watch DWTS because she says "it's not even dancing!"

In the UK, there's much more content so the stuff that really "gets on his wick" is less frequent.

Don't deny they have roles to play, tho.

Darcey will be much harsher this time around. If you think Craig is big on pointing toes...

[TommyD]

Len plays the nasty judge because the other two are so gushing - especially Carrie-Ann Inabo - it is shameful. The US version has so much less content in the dances and the marks are much higher. Len steps in to say "I didn't like all that flouncing about at the start [turns to dismiss the boos] BUT, when you got into hold, your posture was good, your footwork was excellent and it wasn't bad at all"

My mom won't even watch DWTS because she says "it's not even dancing!"

In the UK, there's much more content so the stuff that really "gets on his wick" is less frequent.

Don't deny they have roles to play, tho.

Darcey will be much harsher this time around. If you think Craig is big on pointing toes...

It's just going too much the fake way for me.  Maybe it was always so but it's just so obvious now.  Have the comments appear scripted, look at that debacle when Jennifer Gray was a guest judge.  Everything she said was written down for her, regardless of how a dance went.  And didn't everyone keep going on about a movie from nearly three decades ago...

I get so tilted with it, then I see Ola nearly wearing some clothes and all is ok again.

[AndrewT]

Victoria Pendleton.

Oh yes.

[AndrewT]

Seems to be a pretty solid list now of:

Denise Van Outen - 4/1
Kimberley Walsh (Girls Aloud) - 6/1
Louis Smith (Olympic Gymnast) - 6/1
Nicky Byrne (Westlife) - 8/1
Dani Harmer (Tracy Beaker) - 12/1
Victoria Pendleton - 14/1
Michael Vaughan - 16/1
Richard Arnold (Daybreak) - 18/1
Lisa Riley - (ex-Emmerdale) - 25/1
Fern Britton - 33/1
Johnny Ball - 33/1
Sid Owen (Ricky from Eastenders) - 33/1
Jerry Hall - 40/1

These are best prices available right now and they seem mostly fair enough. Denise Van Outen is a bit too short, as she can come across as unlikeable at times. Louis Smith has the obvious advantage of already being good at moving about and that - it will be key how much of his personality comes out (as I've thought he was quite dull in the interviews I've seen). I assume Nicky Byrne will be too cloppy to win, same for Vaughan, Pendleton will probably not lose herself enough in the acting side of things (a bit like Holly Valance) and no doubt bursting into tears in training every week will begin to grate after a while.

Don't know enough about Dani Harmer, but she has done musicals before, and did the Comic Relief thing so is a live one at 12s. Kimberley should also do very well as she's done dancing and also has a really good, friendly personality, with a touch of Northern grit which should go down well. Any price you like the rest - either useless or hateful people.

I'd be tempted by Kimberly Walsh at 6/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) to win, and would also expect Dani Harmer to trade shorter at some point, but don't know enough to recommend FTW.

[TightEnd]

Harmer very well known by a childrens audience on Tracy Beaker, but not sure they'll be the demographic voting

"'ere Mum, let me borrow your mobile to vote for Tracy Beaker?"

"Sod off at £1.20 a minute."

Was v good on Lets dance though with Outnumbered boy.


If Byrne can dance, I assume he can, then the voting demographic really does help young guys eg McFly man

so I would probably have Byrne and Walsh against the field at up to double the price of the Outen, who never misses an opportunity to say how she trained at stage school and dance school etc but is no value at fours.

[AndrewT]

I just think that Byrne is going to be too wooden to mean he's going to win the thing - McFly boy was also a really good dancer.

[Tal]

There is definitely a case for betting to green out (carefully not putting this in view of The Camel...)

Someone like Nicky Byrne will get through the first six weeks because the westlifers will keep him in, pretty much however bad he is. After that, he will only stay in if he's decent and we will probably have a good idea whether he can realistically win by then.

The voters tend to know who is a good dancer (Chambers), who is good value entertainment (Hollins) and who has run their course (Austin Healy, Ricky Whittle).

[Doobs]

There is definitely a case for betting to green out (carefully not putting this in view of The Camel...)

Someone like Nicky Byrne will get through the first six weeks because the westlifers will keep him in, pretty much however bad he is. After that, he will only stay in if he's decent and we will probably have a good idea whether he can realistically win by then.

The voters tend to know who is a good dancer (Chambers), who is good value entertainment (Hollins) and who has run their course (Austin Healy, Ricky Whittle).

You won't be greening out if if he is shown to be average and still in at week 6.  He isn't ever going to be less than 8/1 if these things are known at that stage. 

Think Kimberly Walsh is the definite bet.  Should be a good dancer and is very likeable.  No betfair market yet. 

[Tal]

I would genuinely recommend avoiding large bets on anyone until you have seen them dance both Latin and Ballroom, unless the intention is to see them through the first few weeks and green out at a shorter price.

You see someone like Holly Vallance week one last year and you'd think she was a shoe-in. A few weeks go by and you realise she's never going to put the work in and she couldn't straighten her legs in the Latin.

[MANTIS01]

Putting Ricky Whittle in the same bracket as Austin Healy in plainly ridiculous darling

This was hot!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L1QQ-678xo

[Tal]

I don't bet big enough to make greening ever viable, tbh, Doobs.

Again, it's all about how they dance