NFL 2012/13 General Discussion and Betting Thread

[Simon Galloway]

Next up... Bears @ GB

I'm asking rather than telling (i.e. DO NOT put a shilling on anything I say)

Bears +6 and Over 50.5?

[TightEnd]

Next up... Bears @ GB

I'm asking rather than telling (i.e. DO NOT put a shilling on anything I say)

Bears +6 and Over 50.5?

Yes

Rodgers has to go through the air as the Packers OL/run game is so bad, and the GB defense is questionable

Cutler has Marshall to throw at 96 times a game

Should be points, and its not a 6 handicap game imo

[Horneris]

Hope you're right but do The Bears have the same tools San Fran did at corner and defensive end in the way they managed to cut down the supply to the likes of Nelson and Jennings for pretty much the whole game.

I'm not sure. No bet game for me atm.

[the sicilian]

points ahoy !

[bobby1]

Ive had a small bet on Green Bay minus 5 at 10/11 by buying the 1/2 pt with Pinny.

They were giving the same line to San Fran on Sunday, I agree with Dave above in thinking that Chicago's D will not have the success the 49ers did. One thing I do think could be important is Green Bay might well be able to get at Cutler a lot and when you can do that he makes mistakes, so I hope that's the case 2morrow. There should be plenty of O from both sides so should be a good game.

A good team, at home against a big rival on the rebound from a bad loss against a team that might be flattered by beating up a bad team on Sunday was enough to get a small bet.

[redarmi]

Ive had a small bet on Green Bay minus 5 at 10/11 by buying the 1/2 pt with Pinny.

They were giving the same line to San Fran on Sunday, I agree with Dave above in thinking that Chicago's D will not have the success the 49ers did. One thing I do think could be important is Green Bay might well be able to get at Cutler a lot and when you can do that he makes mistakes, so I hope that's the case 2morrow. There should be plenty of O from both sides so should be a good game.

A good team, at home against a big rival on the rebound from a bad loss against a team that might be flattered by beating up a bad team on Sunday was enough to get a small bet.

Agree with this in general but you not worried about Jennings likely being out?  It is putting doubt in my mind....

[The Camel]

Don't think I could be with GB.

Their pass defense made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana for a while and Cutler might just have a field day with all his new toys to play with running free in the Pack secondary.

This has got shootout written all over it, can't see Rodgers being as hassled as he was against the Niners either.

Was hoping to see the total posted at 49.

51.5 is a big number, but I couldn't play under.

[Tal]

Don't think I could be with GB.

Their pass defense made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana for a while and Cutler might just have a field day with all his new toys to play with running free in the Pack secondary.

This has got shootout written all over it, can't see Rodgers being as hassled as he was against the Niners either.

Was hoping to see the total posted at 49.

51.5 is a big number, but I couldn't play under.

I like the analysis.

Seems to me like the Saints a couple of years ago: always giving up points but perfectly capable of scoring more.

[bobby1]

Ive had a small bet on Green Bay minus 5 at 10/11 by buying the 1/2 pt with Pinny.

They were giving the same line to San Fran on Sunday, I agree with Dave above in thinking that Chicago's D will not have the success the 49ers did. One thing I do think could be important is Green Bay might well be able to get at Cutler a lot and when you can do that he makes mistakes, so I hope that's the case 2morrow. There should be plenty of O from both sides so should be a good game.

A good team, at home against a big rival on the rebound from a bad loss against a team that might be flattered by beating up a bad team on Sunday was enough to get a small bet.

Agree with this in general but you not worried about Jennings likely being out?  It is putting doubt in my mind....

Hi Red

I would ratherJennings play but not half  fit and Jones would be a starter in a decent % of NFL teams. Jennings being out is accounted for in the line too now as it was a solid 6 earlier in the week and settled at 5 with the injury news. It's deffo not  a  big fancy but of all the spots on the GB roster wr has to be the one area they have excellent cover.

[TL900]

really looking forward to the scoring fest tonight. I wouldn't wana pick a side to win/handicap but I might just bet the over just so I can root for points even if it is high.

[the sicilian]

on overs so will be 10-6 obv

[bobby1]

Ive had a small bet on Green Bay minus 5 at 10/11 by buying the 1/2 pt with Pinny.

They were giving the same line to San Fran on Sunday, I agree with Dave above in thinking that Chicago's D will not have the success the 49ers did. One thing I do think could be important is Green Bay might well be able to get at Cutler a lot and when you can do that he makes mistakes, so I hope that's the case 2morrow. There should be plenty of O from both sides so should be a good game.

A good team, at home against a big rival on the rebound from a bad loss against a team that might be flattered by beating up a bad team on Sunday was enough to get a small bet.

7 sacks and 4 interceptions on Cutler, he never had a chance.

[TightEnd]

Well done

Completely underestimated how average the Chicago OL remains,

Once Cutler gets happy feet and is throwing off balance etc, the game is up

I suppose I'd get Happy feet with Clay Matthews in my face for 60 mnutes! 

[TightEnd]

Advice please

the Steelers are 5 point favourites over the Jets

It's been announced that Revis, Keller and Bryan Thomas are out for the Jets since that line was made

I had in mind that the Steelers could well bounce back from the opening week loss (OL weaknesses aside) and that week 1 flattered the Jets (Buffalo hardly showed up, and Sanchez moved the ball at will, which is rare for him)

but I am a bit mystified why the Steelers would be priced at -5. It seems a bounce back is priced in

Any views on the game/spread?

[Sheriff Fatman]

Advice please

the Steelers are 5 point favourites over the Jets

It's been announced that Revis, Keller and Bryan Thomas are out for the Jets since that line was made

I had in mind that the Steelers could well bounce back from the opening week loss (OL weaknesses aside) and that week 1 flattered the Jets (Buffalo hardly showed up, and Sanchez moved the ball at will, which is rare for him)

but I am a bit mystified why the Steelers would be priced at -5. It seems a bounce back is priced in

Any views on the game/spread?

Assume 3pts of the spread relates to home advantage (it varies from team to team but I'd imagine that the Steelers at Heinz Field is considered one of the stronger home advantages).
Partly some remaining doubt over the Jets, given how poor they were in pre-season (and there'll be some devaluation of beating up on a Bills team who lost a RB and WR, and were generally poor).
The "Steelers factor" - generally, no matter how bad things look with them they have a nasty habit of burning you and find a way to up their game in the face of negativity.
The Jets injuries are, to an extent offset by the Steelers injuries - O-line and RB position the most obvious.  There's nothing really to inspire confidence in the run game (Dwyer looked more effective than Redman last week, which isn't saying much).
Wallace should be better this week than in week 1, after the long hold-out.  Certainly more game-ready.
As posted previously, I think there's been an over-reaction to how good the Broncos win was last week (and consequently how bad the Steelers loss was).  I'm not sure you can read too much in the road team losing at altitude in relatively warm weather.

As long as you buy the homefield advantage being worth around 3pts (the basic assumption) I don't think that the line looks massively out at -5.  I'm not sure which side of it I'd want to be on (probably the Steelers at a push), which suggests it's about right to me.

There's too many unknown factors for me at this stage of the season.  More so than with a lot of other teams in the league, I'm not sure we can have any confidence that we saw the true version of either team last week and overall I'd say the Steeler were still the stronger team of the two.