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redarmi
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« Reply #240 on: September 24, 2012, 10:41:57 PM » |
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I think the unders are of interest in Seattle. I think GB are going to make a season long commitment to run the ball as they blame their terrible defensive seasons on not controlling the clock/giving the defence adequate rest. It seems from what McCarthy has being saying preseason he is determined to get to the playoffs with a more balanced offence, even if it means having to work harder in regular season games. I don´t think the line has fully adjusted and we should be trying to take advantage. Circa 20 carries again this week for Benson is roughly what I expect, Seattle will without doubt being running it lots. Only 33 points in the GB game last week with 52 the week before although that was partly due to a punt return that clearly should have come back for a hold. Seattle´s first 2 games 36 points and 34. These points include a few special teams/defensive TD´s as well. Combined average over what is obviously a tiny sample 38.75 ppg.
Evens under 45.5 at Ladbrokes looks a very reasonable bet to me.
I´m surprised that everyone likes Seattle, it´s one of my rules not to back against Seattle at home but GB are just different class imo and perfectly capable of taking the crowd out of it on offence and giving the young QB a seriously torrid time defensively. GB -3 at a shade of odds on and GB -10.5 at 5/2 both with Pinny complete my bets.
I can't remember the exact figure, but backing home dogs at 3 or 3.5 on SNF or MNF blind is a long term winning strategy. It's at last worth thinking twice before laying the chalk on the road in nationally televised games. I am really not sure this is a profitable strategy anymore tbh Keith. Backing home dogs in the nfl in any game used to be marginally profitable and now it certainly isn't and whilst there is a bit more public money/sentiment in the mnf and snf games they are a smaller sample. I heard from a pretty good source the other day that some of the big syndicates actually think the line has moved so far on this now that there may be value the other way. Also betting +3 on something that opened +4 doesn't seem like great value to me especially when the injury news has been positive for GB. I like GB -3 fwiw but given I find it almost impossible to let a mnf game go by without a bet it probably isn't worth much. |
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The Camel
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« Reply #241 on: September 24, 2012, 10:50:17 PM » |
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I think the unders are of interest in Seattle. I think GB are going to make a season long commitment to run the ball as they blame their terrible defensive seasons on not controlling the clock/giving the defence adequate rest. It seems from what McCarthy has being saying preseason he is determined to get to the playoffs with a more balanced offence, even if it means having to work harder in regular season games. I don´t think the line has fully adjusted and we should be trying to take advantage. Circa 20 carries again this week for Benson is roughly what I expect, Seattle will without doubt being running it lots. Only 33 points in the GB game last week with 52 the week before although that was partly due to a punt return that clearly should have come back for a hold. Seattle´s first 2 games 36 points and 34. These points include a few special teams/defensive TD´s as well. Combined average over what is obviously a tiny sample 38.75 ppg.
Evens under 45.5 at Ladbrokes looks a very reasonable bet to me.
I´m surprised that everyone likes Seattle, it´s one of my rules not to back against Seattle at home but GB are just different class imo and perfectly capable of taking the crowd out of it on offence and giving the young QB a seriously torrid time defensively. GB -3 at a shade of odds on and GB -10.5 at 5/2 both with Pinny complete my bets.
I can't remember the exact figure, but backing home dogs at 3 or 3.5 on SNF or MNF blind is a long term winning strategy. It's at last worth thinking twice before laying the chalk on the road in nationally televised games. I am really not sure this is a profitable strategy anymore tbh Keith. Backing home dogs in the nfl in any game used to be marginally profitable and now it certainly isn't and whilst there is a bit more public money/sentiment in the mnf and snf games they are a smaller sample. I heard from a pretty good source the other day that some of the big syndicates actually think the line has moved so far on this now that there may be value the other way. Also betting +3 on something that opened +4 doesn't seem like great value to me especially when the injury news has been positive for GB. I like GB -3 fwiw but given I find it almost impossible to let a mnf game go by without a bet it probably isn't worth much. Almost certain I read that stat in the last couple of years and it covered 20+ years of games. Maybe the market has wised up alot recently, but my natural inclination would always look to back home dogs, especially in the 3-4 point range. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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77dave
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« Reply #242 on: September 25, 2012, 03:00:42 AM » |
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What tv channel is the GB game on ?
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Mantis - I would like to thank 77dave for his more realistic take on things.
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bobby1
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« Reply #243 on: September 25, 2012, 03:01:38 AM » |
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bbc red button mate
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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77dave
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« Reply #244 on: September 25, 2012, 03:06:35 AM » |
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Thx in the casino. They said they couldnt find it I just sent him back out to find it
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Mantis - I would like to thank 77dave for his more realistic take on things.
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Horneris
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« Reply #245 on: September 25, 2012, 03:07:50 AM » |
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This is terrible viewing.
I keep looking forward to games all Thursday/Monday and the games are fucking shite.
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The Camel
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« Reply #246 on: September 25, 2012, 03:16:34 AM » |
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This is terrible viewing.
I keep looking forward to games all Thursday/Monday and the games are fucking shite.
? Seattle pass rush worth staying up for alone. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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The Camel
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« Reply #247 on: September 25, 2012, 03:29:47 AM » |
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Love the alterations the Packers have made at half time.
Backed them at 6/4 in running.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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Horneris
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« Reply #248 on: September 25, 2012, 03:35:05 AM » |
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This is terrible viewing.
I keep looking forward to games all Thursday/Monday and the games are fucking shite.
? Seattle pass rush worth staying up for alone. zzz, we wana see sick catches and bombs. Ok, I need Finley and Jennings to win my fantasy game too and they've been causty at best. |
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bobby1
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« Reply #249 on: September 25, 2012, 03:43:41 AM » |
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If these pics get any further behind live we might aswell just follow it on CBSsports. its 2 plays behind at times
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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action man
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« Reply #250 on: September 25, 2012, 03:47:48 AM » |
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traded off on the seahawks ML bet
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Horneris
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« Reply #251 on: September 25, 2012, 04:32:24 AM » |
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WHAT THE FUCK, RICE WAS STRANGLING HIM
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bobby1
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« Reply #252 on: September 25, 2012, 04:52:04 AM » |
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oh my word
. one ref called td the other called it no td
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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bobby1
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« Reply #253 on: September 25, 2012, 04:52:36 AM » |
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shambolic. huge pass int by Tate, GB caught the ball and Seattle get the TD
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« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 04:56:10 AM by bobby1 »
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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action man
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« Reply #254 on: September 25, 2012, 04:54:38 AM » |
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OMG
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Author