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cambridgealex
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« on: September 07, 2012, 05:02:03 PM » |
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I'd like to know how to calculate a players EV in a tournament at any given time, given stack size, total chips in play, players left and prizepool/structure.
Can anyone point me to a formula/program that can do this. Assume it's not possible to just use an ICM calculator for this but could easily be wrong.
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Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
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edgascoigne
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2012, 05:06:52 PM » |
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I'd like to know how to calculate a players EV in a tournament at any given time, given stack size, total chips in play, players left and prizepool/structure.
Can anyone point me to a formula/program that can do this. Assume it's not possible to just use an ICM calculator for this but could easily be wrong.
I would suggest you may have to factor in ability as a fairly significant factor  Not to mention multiple other nuances... |
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Allez!!
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2012, 05:08:22 PM » |
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Yes obviously!
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Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
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Skippy
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2012, 05:10:19 PM » |
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That's what ICM is. It's an attempt to work out how much every stack is worth.
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jezza777
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2012, 05:13:53 PM » |
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ICM doesnt calculate a specific players EV though.
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2012, 05:14:58 PM » |
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That's what ICM is. It's an attempt to work out how much every stack is worth.
yes but I don't think that can be done with like 100players left / before the bubble etc. Or if I can I don't know how it's done- hence the thread! |
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Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
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skolsuper
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2012, 06:01:11 PM » |
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ICM doesnt calculate a specific players EV though.
Yeah it does. That's what ICM is. It's an attempt to work out how much every stack is worth.
yes but I don't think that can be done with like 100players left / before the bubble etc. Or if I can I don't know how it's done- hence the thread! Yes it can, you just need every stack and every payout. |
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2012, 06:15:49 PM » |
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Why? So hard for no real informational gain.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
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Doobs
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2012, 06:28:54 PM » |
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Next business venture doing a Sorel?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Skippy
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2012, 06:32:08 PM » |
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It's worth noting that the M in ICM stands for model. The ICM method is an attempt to provide an answer to the question "how much is this stack worth", but it has defects.
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2012, 07:34:56 PM » |
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Next business venture doing a Sorel?
Cliffs?! |
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Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
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Skippy
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2012, 08:02:37 PM » |
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Next business venture doing a Sorel?
Cliffs?! I imagine he means multiaccount, dump chips from one account to another to increase total equity in tournament. |
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Doobs
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« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2012, 08:15:21 PM » |
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Next business venture doing a Sorel?
Cliffs?! He took over an account near the end of a tournament, don't know if he paid ICM for it. It was back in the day when the rules weren't clear. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2012, 08:22:04 PM » |
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Ha no nothing like that!
Thinking about whether there'd be a market in selling %ages in people who've made day two/three of live events. E.g. Zimbler makes day 2 with a big stack, I estimate his EV in my opinion using all the information and tools available, set a minimum price and sell up to x% in him, and have to pay out x% of his cash if anyone buys. People could bid for the %ages too.
Think lots of people would like to have sweats in people in big events who haven't got %ages can buy in their mates, heroes, comedy characters etc.
Would obviously limit my exposure each time to quite small amounts, perhaps only selling a few % for each event as it's obviously high variance, and the minimum prices would reflect this too so it could be a nice little idea. No costs to run or set-up either and if no-ones interested it doesn't cost a penny. Thoughts?
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« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 08:26:18 PM by cambridgealex »
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Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
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jgcblack
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2012, 09:08:37 PM » |
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Rastafish price in lvl1 of a dtd500?
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