.fr Sunday Million, River Spot

[JK]

PokerStars Hand #85950877394: Tournament #2012030018, €230+€20 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (600/1200) - 2012/09/10 1:51:08 CET [2012/09/09 19:51:08 ET]
Table '2012030018 99' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Mournval (51314 in chips)
Seat 2: ROFL@you.com (150797 in chips)
Seat 3: LeMcNitus (37624 in chips)
Seat 4: el popop (102597 in chips)
Seat 5: BALOUBOY7 (59660 in chips)
Seat 6: MrCookgame (48950 in chips)
Seat 7: pilegeberAA (93775 in chips)
Seat 8: mendozAA89 (20458 in chips)
Seat 9: siick7up (22750 in chips)
Mournval: posts the ante 150
ROFL@you.com: posts the ante 150
LeMcNitus: posts the ante 150
el popop: posts the ante 150
BALOUBOY7: posts the ante 150
MrCookgame: posts the ante 150
pilegeberAA: posts the ante 150
mendozAA89: posts the ante 150
siick7up: posts the ante 150
siick7up: posts small blind 600
Mournval: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LeMcNitus [ Ah]
ROFL@you.com: folds
LeMcNitus: raises 1200 to 2400
el popop: calls 2400
BALOUBOY7: folds
MrCookgame: folds
pilegeberAA: folds
mendozAA89: folds
siick7up: folds
Mournval: calls 1200
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Mournval: checks
LeMcNitus: bets 3635
el popop: calls 3635
Mournval: folds
*** TURN *** [ ] []
LeMcNitus: bets 6205
el popop: calls 6205
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
LeMcNitus: ?

We have about 25k back in stacks OTR, the pot is 28,830.

Villain hasnt got OOL while we have been at the table, though it hasnt been that long. Really felt gross in this spot tbh...

[rbc_mike]

at first I wrote b/f, but actually think this has to be a jam. he can have aj, kq, at, worse pair + flush draw. think villain will raise two pair or a turned straight ott, given that the board is getting pretty wet.  Sets probs will have raised flop/turn as well.

jamming at first seems a bit thin.  But let's look at the other options. 

Problem with c/c is that I think he's gonna check back all of his worse showdown hands that he may call a river bet/jam with, so we lose out on a tonne of value.  And if he shoves river, we are completely lost.  In fact, he can turn his entire range into a bluff, and we are being massively exploited.  So c/c seems real bad, as we are essentially put in a gross spot for our tourney life.  If we are going to check, I suppose we have to c/f, but that doesn't seem great either, as again we can be massively exploited in this spot.

B/f is an option, but with his actions, can't see any hand that he shoves over a river bet other than aq, and i think that this raises the turn, since better hands than AK i think are either three betting pre (unless he's trapping because he wants action versus your utg+1 range) or raising either flop or turn.  Plus, when we've bet so much of our stack through the streets, folding seems pretty bad.  When we three barrel this board, we are repping a pretty strong range, so for him to shove the river after we bet, it seems like he'd only do it with hands that beat us, but his actions thus far would make this range super polarised imo.

So given the low probability of him shoving over a river bet with any kind of value range, I think jamming is better here, as I think it will be way more profitable than b/c.

In summary, his range seems inherently weaker than ours based on the pre flop, flop and turn actions - the only trapping hand I guess is AQ, but with your range looking as strong as it is, I would think he would try and get max value by shoving turn in case perceived scare cards versus your range come on the river.  I'm inclined to jam here and get heroed by aj, and maaaybe fold out better (unlikely tho on a brick river given the action).

So yeh I guess jam >>> b/c >>> c/f >>> b/f >>> c/c, interested to see what others think.

[rfgqqabc]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

[JK]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

Fwiw I was setting this up but worked the bet out wrong lol

[skolsuper]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

Fwiw I was setting this up but worked the bet out wrong lol

Seems like you're in a coffin spot without the other guy really doing anything, on a totally blank river, so I think your turn bet is probably bad. C/c turn and river, although I admit this is much easier with hindsight.

[muckthenuts]

Not much a fan of cbetting i think. Hits their range much harder than yours, lots of ways you can be raised off your hand on a semi bluff (not the biggest deal in the world but still) and we can only be sure of 4 clean outs ott. Jamming river would usually be too thin. Hope it goes check/check but think you'd have to fold to a bet.

[rfgqqabc]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

Fwiw I was setting this up but worked the bet out wrong lol

Seems like you're in a coffin spot without the other guy really doing anything, on a totally blank river, so I think your turn bet is probably bad. C/c turn and river, although I admit this is much easier with hindsight.

c/jam turn?

[skolsuper]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

Fwiw I was setting this up but worked the bet out wrong lol

Seems like you're in a coffin spot without the other guy really doing anything, on a totally blank river, so I think your turn bet is probably bad. C/c turn and river, although I admit this is much easier with hindsight.

c/jam turn?

As a bluff?

[pleno1]

c/j turn is confirmed nut low line, i prob jsut c/call turn, if i bet turn its gna be smallish tho.

[rfgqqabc]

1k more on the turn, jam river though gross

Fwiw I was setting this up but worked the bet out wrong lol

Seems like you're in a coffin spot without the other guy really doing anything, on a totally blank river, so I think your turn bet is probably bad. C/c turn and river, although I admit this is much easier with hindsight.

c/jam turn?

As a bluff?

Is he checking back AJ/QJ/T9/QT etc?

Its a really gross SPR. Is c/c c/c correct because we keep in more bluffs and his 1pr hands we beat, but fold out worse by shoving? Seems like we might miss some value tho, when he checks back river with Jx

[George2Loose]

Think missing value on this board is fine

[youthnkzR]

bet 4995 and slip 'em in when he turns his hands into bluffs

[titaniumbean]

I'm really not sure why everyone's hating life?

this is DOT F R

how would c/c be greater than b/f on the turn?

and just lol at people saying bet to induce etc THIS IS DAWT FR

[pleno1]

john black should know this one...

you have tptk, bet bet and then fold if raised. v v easy game.

[rfgqqabc]

john black should know this one...

you have tptk, bet bet and then fold if raised. v v easy game.

So jam river?