Vegas $1/2- Interesting spot- 4 card straight, raise the turn with nfd?

[rfgqqabc]

Sat 450 deep in MGM 1/2. Guy sits down at the table and the dealer says, oh hello, no raising from you for the first hour. Guy buys in for $200 and has his card swiped. In his first few orbits he plays a few hands and wins $30-50 or so, without a showdown.

Preflop: 
MP limps, I iso to $10 from the cutoff, Villain peels from small, limper makes it up.

Flop:   

He leads for 20, i decide to call.

Turn: 

He leads for 30.

I should be raising this turn? Or do stack sizes make it too awkward? Should i just rofl shove? It doesn't seem like he can have many Qx hands and i should have more in my range, although i don't know if he knows this. Seems like a real sweet spot but he has $180~ back and i can't find a size I like- $120 and call a shove?

[SuuPRlim]

Raise the flop.

Just call now, this is live poker in Vegas, doesn't matter how many Queens you have and how few Queens he has, he isn't folding and our hand has lost equity since the flop.

Raising the turn in a Vegas game would be a disaster imo, the games just don't play like that over there. $30 to try make a flush, seems reasonable enough, but I think it's a clear flop raise, personally.  He calls all his bad 1p's, all worse FD's and everything your hand has sick equity vs plus we put him under pressure with the majority of his range, lets say he has 89, he'll never fold that hand but he's not loving life is he? AT/KT etc what's he going to do with those hands, there is such a thin range of hands that can 3bet the flop that we rarely end up having to get the money in, when he does 3bet he has so many Xh / Xh / type hands (along with sets and straights ofc) that we can just get the money in w/e it's a bit meh but happens so infrequently it's not too much to worry about.

+ It's always good in live games for it to be obvious enough you're happy to splash and gamble, makes people way less liekly to fuck with you when you've shown your happy to jump it in light(ish)

[rfgqqabc]

Yeah i think i misplayed flop tbh. OTT he would bet bigger with a Q tho no? I was a little confused by his donk, and been running super bad so didn't want to get it in, in all honesty. Obv a leak but just one of those, felt like he had a nutted donk range but its really not. I'm bad

[SuuPRlim]

Raising turn would be bad imo, it's Vegas, people don't fold in spots like this.

Either raise flop and bomb off or call down and try make your hand, not a lot in it but I just think raising the flop is miles better mostly cos of how much money he'll put in with really bad hands.

[pleno1]

raisign flop or turn would both be bad imo can also defintiely have a lot of qx. 910j just smashes a calling range hard.

[Honeybadger]

raisign flop or turn would both be bad imo can also defintiely have a lot of qx. 910j just smashes a calling range hard.

I tend to agree with this.

[SuuPRlim]

Trust me, Low stakes games in Vegas raising the flop can never be bad, the amount of 1p+H and 1p hands and basically just hands that wont 3bet that donk is plenty.

Calling and calling is defo fine, raising the turn defo not a play though here.

[rfgqqabc]

Trust me, Low stakes games in Vegas raising the flop can never be bad, the amount of 1p+H and 1p hands and basically just hands that wont 3bet that donk is plenty.

Calling and calling is defo fine, raising the turn defo not a play though here.

But stack sizes make it super awkward. I mean, if we make it 65 and he calls there will be 130+ 30 in the pot, with about 175 back. Just cram the turn if he calls it?

[SuuPRlim]

Trust me, Low stakes games in Vegas raising the flop can never be bad, the amount of 1p+H and 1p hands and basically just hands that wont 3bet that donk is plenty.

Calling and calling is defo fine, raising the turn defo not a play though here.

But stack sizes make it super awkward. I mean, if we make it 65 and he calls there will be 130+ 30 in the pot, with about 175 back. Just cram the turn if he calls it?

Yh, or check back on certain cards if you get some reads of him or w/e

[tikay]

Sat 450 deep in MGM 1/2. Guy sits down at the table and the dealer says, oh hello, no raising from you for the first hour. Guy buys in for $200 and has his card swiped. In his first few orbits he plays a few hands and wins $30-50 or so, without a showdown.

Preflop: 
MP limps, I iso to $10 from the cutoff, Villain peels from small, limper makes it up.

Flop:   

He leads for 20, i decide to call.

Turn: 

He leads for 30.

I should be raising this turn? Or do stack sizes make it too awkward? Should i just rofl shove? It doesn't seem like he can have many Qx hands and i should have more in my range, although i don't know if he knows this. Seems like a real sweet spot but he has $180~ back and i can't find a size I like- $120 and call a shove?

As a matter of curiosity, why can he "not have many Qx hands"?

Why can't he often have Q-J, Q-10, Q-K etc? He is SB, there has been a raise, why would he not peel with those, in that spot? You have no idea (at this juncture) whether he he is a good player or not, so he may have anything here. He has led (lead?) both streets, too, to possibly protect his hand on this wetty-wet flop & turn.

I rarely comment on here, so mock away, (gently....) but I don't quite understand the logic train.

Assigning a range to complete strangers must be a VERY inexact science.

[rfgqqabc]

No problem Tikay. In general, and especially in Vegas, I've seen people mainly lead top pair hands. I would be extremely surprised to see KQ here, but not so much QT. I also feel like people rarely lead with the nuts here, especially someone the dealer perceives as splashy. I mean he can easily have Q9/QT some % of the time, but KQ close to 0% and QJ rarely in my opinion. I'd guess his donk range is T7s-AT with T9/T8/98/88/99 weighted against. Perhaps not, its tough to tell in a vacuum, but i felt like he came to play, with what the dealer said and his general demeanour.

[tikay]

No problem Tikay. In general, and especially in Vegas, I've seen people mainly lead top pair hands. I would be extremely surprised to see KQ here, but not so much QT. I also feel like people rarely lead with the nuts here, especially someone the dealer perceives as splashy. I mean he can easily have Q9/QT some % of the time, but KQ close to 0% and QJ rarely in my opinion. I'd guess his donk range is T7s-AT with T9/T8/98/88/99 weighted against. Perhaps not, its tough to tell in a vacuum, but i felt like he came to play, with what the dealer said and his general demeanour.

I'm clearly plumb out of my depth here.

Why can this complete stranger - our only info is that he plays regularly, & is in a lot of pots - not have K-Q? Shorties push light, but they can still have it.

If this chap had a big non-heart hand, (or even the temp nuts or nut draw) why would he not bet out on a straighty flushy wetty flop??

He has K-Q close to 0% of the time? How you know that, based on the thin info?

I'm not trying to teach you here, far from it, I'm just curious as to the thinking.

I see so much of this "he CANNOT have this or that" (not from you), & I always wonder how some players can be so precise to the holdings of complete strangers, or think they can understand other players thought processes, & assume these align with their own logic. They so rarely do. 

[pleno1]

tikay is definitely right here, adams statement was really incorrect and if anything this is the exact board where villain can have a lot of Qx

The type of time when you might 3 barrel because villain can never have Qx and has a weak range would be , we raise he calls and he c./calls 662 turn is a queen and very unlikely he has a hand to call down.

[SuuPRlim]

tikay is definitely right here

 

Yh, I can see him leading a LOT wider than you think Adam. It's Vegas! People can have anything

[rfgqqabc]

tikay is definitely right here, adams statement was really incorrect and if anything this is the exact board where villain can have a lot of Qx

The type of time when you might 3 barrel because villain can never have Qx and has a weak range would be , we raise he calls and he c./calls 662 turn is a queen and very unlikely he has a hand to call down.

Well I've mentioned every Qx with a pair, and KQ would seem very bizarre. I mean, i agreed in the moment because i flatted, just seemed to be a good spot to put the pressure on after the session.

Ty guys.

edit: "T7s-AT with T9/T8/98/88/99" + like Q9/QJ/A9/54hh/K7hh" Even if we include all KQ hands he has a Qx less than 1/3rd of the time right? Or is it much higher then he continues to donk? i.e, he checks with 2p/sets etc