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Author Topic: Chunder City - $8.80 PLO Bubble  (Read 1123 times)
Derbylad
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« on: September 25, 2012, 12:13:39 AM »

PokerStars Hand #86679079769: Tournament #617955058, $8.00+$0.80 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level XXII (1250/2500) - 2012/09/25 0:06:12 WET [2012/09/24 19:06:12 ET]
Table '617955058 17' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: genizta (66364 in chips)
Seat 3: GHolden7 (93734 in chips)
Seat 4: __vk--$4$4 (80164 in chips)
Seat 6: xD6x (33938 in chips)
GHolden7: posts small blind 1250
__vk--$4$4: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GHolden7 [ Ah]
xD6x: folds
genizta: folds
GHolden7: raises 5000 to 7500
__vk--$4$4: calls 5000
*** FLOP *** [ ]
GHolden7: bets 10000
__vk--$4$4: calls 10000
*** TURN *** [ ] [three clubs]
GHolden7: bets 25000
__vk--$4$4: calls 25000

[Pot: 85,000]

*** RIVER *** [ three clubs] []
GHolden7 [51k behind]: Huh?


In analysis i should pot the turn, but whats our river decision?
Thoughts on ICM?
currently 7 left, 6 on the FT.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 12:31:48 AM by Derbylad » Logged
SuuPRlim
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 01:09:51 AM »

A little nit-picky but id stick to min or 2.5x in PLO tourneys with the stacks that are around I don't think you need to do any more.

Flop bet is perfect.

Turn bet is, if anything a little big, 35k in the pot and 62k in stacks I think i'd go for ~18k, 72k in the pot with 46k in stacks leaves a nice river shove and remember most of the time he'll prolly fold to the turn bet we have an Ace in our hand and the nut flush so there isn't a huge amount he can feasibly call with, aside from smaller flushes, and we'll do way better getting paid off those in two smaller bets.

In analysis i should pot the turn, but whats our river decision?

Defo shouldn't pot the turn, if you say this cos we wanna protect vs 2p's we dont need to worry about that, if he wants to call the turn with 2p and try hit his 4 outs gd luck to the kid, We need to focus on value-betting well against smaller flushes which are our best avenue to get paid here.

River I'd check. I'd expect this river to go chk-chk the vast majoirty of the time, he has very few boats, A8 will raise the flop a decent% (and we have an ACE) he is v. unlikely to have AA (blockers and PF) and again 88 and 44 would raise the flop some %, although they could easily flat. If he bets then I'd fold, we still have plenty of chips and it's just very difficult to thnk he'd bluff here, unless he's bluffing with A4 but given he cant rep AA and most people are scared you wont fold a flush, an 8 has too much SD value to bluff with and even though it's a good bluff players at this level will rarely do it.

The main reason I'd check is not that i expect him to have a FH but that I'd expect him to fold his flushes quite often now, so there isn't much point in betting.

Chk/collect the monies/fold if he bets.

You could try bet something like 8000 and get a crying call from a small flush or something worse, quite like that.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 01:12:40 AM by SuuPRlim » Logged

Derbylad
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 08:40:00 AM »

Villain has 62k post flop, and is likely to be doing this with sets and two pair in the late game, v unlikely to be doing this with worse flushes. Should we not be potting here to avoid a cheap peel and taking down the 35k pot, rather then leaving ourselves exposed to these kind of rivers? Particularly on the bubble the villain is unlikely to over commit vs a made hand when ICM at this stage is relatively important.
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strak33
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 09:06:05 AM »

That is the mentality after he has called and rivered the house but is not what we should be doing.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 12:06:00 PM »

Villain has 62k post flop, and is likely to be doing this with sets and two pair in the late game

Doing what? He's called an A84cc flop 32big blinds deep in a single raised pot, and again on a flush completing turn card.  In my experience that's a small flush way more than it's a set or 2p, remember he'd have 3bet AA preflop most of the time, and we have an ACE (so only 1 combo) he'd raise the flop with 88 at least sme of the time, plus there is only 1 combo, same with 44, 84 would be the worst turn call ever unless he had a flush with it - he prolly won't  bet 84 anyways, if you're beat OTR it's prolly to a hand with 84 and flush something like that, or a A84* hand that didn't raise the flop (I guess if it was A842 or something he'd just call the flop)

v unlikely to be doing this with worse flushes.

Still he hasn't done anything up to this point except take a passive line with what we can assume OTR is a weak hand, given the passive flop line and the fact we can block out 1/3 of the boat combo's I'd go as far as to say that he'll show you a J or T high flush here about 80% of the time, there are loads of combo's of hands he'll peel a flop bet with that have weak(ish) clubs in it, pair/gutshot/fd he'd just call with that hand almost always, three diamonds something like that loads of combo's and given we have the NFD and an ACE there is an ACE on the board it's safe to assume he'd call with these hands over raising near on always.

As played though, it's a pretty easy chk/fold. He won't (or at least defo shouldn't) bet worse flushes or naked for value, he prolly wont turn a naked 8 or A4** into a bluff (although it's a good(ish) spot given how you're folding the majority of the time you're checking this river) so most of the time will chk/chk and you win but when he ships he just has a boat. Jamming has a little merit but I think on the bubble he'll fold most of his flushes so it's really just isolating yourself vs his boats when you ship the river.

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