Another quick line check

[Rod]

Have a feeling I must do something wrong with this hand but am not sure what? It might just be a cooler but something doesn't quite sit right in how I played the hand.

Pre - should I just call the raise instead of 3betting?
Flop is OK
On the turn should I be just calling his raise rather than making the massive overbet as I am unlikely to get called off by worse.

It felt like I could only lose to QQ but does he only call me off with QQ or 33 here and I might have convinced him to fold 33?

Or is it just one of those hands you can not do a lot about?

PokerStars Zoom Hand #87068474039:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2012/10/03 0:05:44 WET [2012/10/02 19:05:44 ET]
Table 'Hydra' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dajstack ($36.05 in chips)
Seat 2: 33teetwo33 ($105.05 in chips)
Seat 3: ru.admin's ($25.86 in chips)
Seat 4: c_anest@ ($73.51 in chips)
Seat 5: Happyling ($21.17 in chips)
Seat 6: lilhand23 ($28.25 in chips)
33teetwo33: posts small blind $0.10
ru.admin's: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
c_anest@: raises $0.50 to $0.75
Happyling: folds
lilhand23: folds
dajstack: folds
33teetwo33: raises $1.50 to $2.25
ru.admin's: folds
c_anest@: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [ ]
33teetwo33: bets $3
c_anest@: calls $3
*** TURN *** [ ] []
33teetwo33: bets $8
c_anest@: raises $20 to $28
33teetwo33: raises $71.80 to $99.80 and is all-in
c_anest@: calls $40.26 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($31.54) returned to 33teetwo33
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
33teetwo33: shows [ ] (three of a kind, Sevens)
c_anest@: shows [ ] (three of a kind, Queens)
c_anest@ collected $145.27 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $147.27 | Rake $1.50
Board [ ]
Seat 1: dajstack (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: 33teetwo33 (small blind) showed [ ] and lost with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 3: ru.admin's (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: c_anest@ showed [ ] and won ($145.27) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 5: Happyling folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: lilhand23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[pleno1]

This deep we can call from sb, 100bs folding would probably be best.

As played as ugly as it sounds turn is a b/f as he shouldn't be cake cutting with aces and would most likel 4bet pre because you've shown great. Strength to 3bet a utg open oop.

[Rod]

This deep we can call from sb, 100bs folding would probably be best.

I assume we are folding as the UTG raise makes his range stronger? Sorry to sound a bit dumb here but really? Is 100BB deep not enough to set mine, I do this a lot is that a leak?

Would the 3-bet be OK if the raise came from the button?

[pleno1]

what would your current defending range be from the sb?

[Rod]

what would your current defending range be from the sb?

Probably too loose tbh - assuming no strange dynamics or history with the player

Calling with 22-TT (4bet JJ+)
AJ, KQ, KJ (4bet AK and sometimes AQ)
Fair number of SC like QJ, JT

I sometime 3 bet these hands if the raise is from LP and the raiser is raising more than about 16% of hands. Is this really bad?

Working atm but should later look how I do with this range of hands in the SB I suppose.

[pleno1]

On phone ATM but will post later, range is pretty far off though.

[Honeybadger]

3bet pre is bad, just flat.

I don't agree that turn is a bet/fold. Get your money in.

Please don't post results.

[Bully87]

Flat pre and don't see anything wrong in stacking off on the turn..

[pleno1]

we're deep and nl10 is a nitty level, people 100% aren't raising worse ott, I think its a really clear b/f.

Regarding pre flop, defending hands like kj are going to show a huge loss, 1) we dont hand position 2) we don't have initiative. Remember the pleno1 theorem which is correct in most cases, position + initiative  = profit, we have neither here and even our equity vs his range is poor.

[Rod]

we're deep and nl10 is a nitty level, people 100% aren't raising worse ott, I think its a really clear b/f.

Regarding pre flop, defending hands like kj are going to show a huge loss, 1) we dont hand position 2) we don't have initiative. Remember the pleno1 theorem which is correct in most cases, position + initiative  = profit, we have neither here and even our equity vs his range is poor.

What about 33? Can he have that?

Are we saying he is less likely to have that due to the way it was played preflop. I do see that there really are not too many hands he can have he that do that ott.

I agree the 3bet pre was definitely bad btw.

[Honeybadger]

we're deep

Yes, but it is a 3bet pot...

nl10 is a nitty level, people 100% aren't raising worse ott

This type of thinking is something that I believe could be very dangerous in your poker career Patrick. All this "100% aren't..." stuff is lazy and sloppy thinking and is much too definitive an assessment. Same when someone says, "He can never have a flush there" or "It is impossible for him to have xx hand" or "This player never bluffs". Too much certainty is a bad thing, and you should try to avoid making blanket statements like this - they lack subtlety and finesse and lead to brittle, inflexible thinking.

Plus tbh, I just flat out disagree with your overall assessment anyway. When I was grinding NL regularly I used to sometimes mess around at micro-stakes to try things out (e.g. raising every hand, never being allowed to raise preflop, 3betting half my hands etc etc), and I have seen a huge amount of weird, wonderful, and downright random stuff going on from the players there - and not just due to the silly dynamic I would create.

It is completely reasonable for villain to have 33 here - and I can't see why you'd think otherwise. Tbh, it is also perfectly likely for villain to have AQ here and think it is the nuts (I have seen that a lot). Or any Qdxd. Maybe even any Qx hand, who knows? Or like JJ, and he "puts you on AK" lol, and jams because, well, that's randomly what he decides is good play at that particular moment. Or even something just completely weird and unexpected - because all people do weird stuff from time to time. Tbh, what characterises most 10NL players is not that they are nitty, it is that they are not very good at poker. Some are bad nits, some are bad TAGs, many are just clicking buttons.

I think its a really clear b/f.

Obviously I disagree completely.

Regarding pre flop, defending hands like kj are going to show a huge loss, 1) we dont hand position 2) we don't have initiative. Remember the pleno1 theorem which is correct in most cases, position + initiative  = profit, we have neither here and even our equity vs his range is poor.

Agree with this for the most part, although as you know I think you do over-value having the initiative sometimes. Didn't realise you had your own theorem though

[pleno1]

my girlfriend played a session of nl2, people folded to 72% of 3bets, times have changed and at micro stakes i promise you they play extremely nitty/cautious. regarding 100%'s if you read any recent thread, i always accommodate for stray combos.

Pre: probably 88/99/1010 4betting jj+, all suited boardways ad then a few combos of suited connectors. Kqo, aqo. 12 combos of smaller poker pairs that incorrectly called

Flop: 88-1010 will call once, all qx that called pre so q10-aqs, kqo/aqo/aqs, all flush draws that are possible, kjss k10ss, let's give 2 combos of hired connectors to connectors to continue. Upto 6 combos of floats usually k10cc or some bd draw. 2 combos of sets and then 5 combos that stubbornly call

Turn: half the combos of 88-1010 an then the same range as above, let's say e continue to float with 1/6 floats and folds 10pc I his fds. Let's half his set combos as he's likely to raise earlier. Let's say he folds 75p of his stubborn pair flop calls.

River: aq/kq suited and off suit, all the FDs that missed an the one combo of float. 1 conbo of sets and 1 combo of random betting from the stubborn pairs.

etc

regarding its a 3bet pot, i really do think that 100% (changed to 97% for you) they will treat aq-aa as a bluff catcher ott. i agree about 33, but think that aq is virtually never, unless they are trying to buy free showdown, which would be a lot more common with a hand like jj/q10/qj

john black will come and tell you if im wrong

[pleno1]

also spoke with a guy that has done 60,000 hand evaluations at nl10 and he pretty knows exactly whats going on who agrees with most of the above.

[Honeybadger]

Spazz equity should always be taken into account, and more than just a 3% allowance. But I am happy to disagree with you on this, it is just different philosophy that's all. So let's pretend I completely accept that villain never has worse than a set here...

If villain really can ONLY have 33 or QQ here then we clearly still should not fold. We have 50% equity and plenty in pot already. Moreover, villain is actually rather more likely to have 33 than QQ for two reasons:

1. He may 4bet QQ some of the time (please don't say 10NL players 100% never 4bet QQ lol).

2. He might be less likely to raise the turn with top set than with bottom set, due to top set having blockers to TP hands that he'd perceive could pay him off.

So I'd suggest slightly discounting QQ... Which means you are a favourite!

Add in any chance that villain has a wider range, and the maths is even better.

The only problem with this is that villain can also have 88. However, we are assuming these guys are nits aren't we... and nits would fold 88 on the flop most of the time (100% of the time? Lol). I am happy to include some 88 combos if you are happy to include some AQ/KK/AA combos - and this balances out of course.

[pleno1]

Villain can have all the 88 combos too?