Mayfair Casino witholding Ivey's winnings

[doubleup]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents.  

[AndrewT]

When deciding to give a big punter big limits, one of the key things to consider is the player's propensity to lose.

Three players may spin up a big win off you.

One keeps playing until he loses it all back. Another books the win, but loses it back to you on subsequent visits. The third books the win and you never see him again.

Even though the maths and margin are the same in all three cases, you can see which players are the ones you don't mind taking the hit off.

[The Camel]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents.  

Are you sure your maths is correct?

I'm not brilliant at probability, but I would have guessed it was a lot bigger than 7/1 to win 70 units at even money with a 10 unit starting bank.

[AlunB]

If it's the same maths as in the 2+2 thread, and I think it is, it comes from this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin

[doubleup]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents.  

Are you sure your maths is correct?

I'm not brilliant at probability, but I would have guessed it was a lot bigger than 7/1 to win 70 units at even money with a 10 unit starting bank.

think about the coin toss example  - it is a zero sum game, to turn the 10 bets into 80 bets must be 7-1. 

[AndrewT]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents. 

Are you sure your maths is correct?

I'm not brilliant at probability, but I would have guessed it was a lot bigger than 7/1 to win 70 units at even money with a 10 unit starting bank.

After 3000 flips you're about 11.8% to have got the 70 units, 85% to have gone busto.

[smashedagain]

Yeah sorry for bringing up Wadey as an example as the maths are obv in correct. He never wins and if he ever looks like making a profit then Ali bag o bollocks nips him

[The Camel]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents. 

Are you sure your maths is correct?

I'm not brilliant at probability, but I would have guessed it was a lot bigger than 7/1 to win 70 units at even money with a 10 unit starting bank.

After 3000 flips you're about 11.8% to have got the 70 units, 85% to have gone busto.

Ok after a bit of thought, I accept this now.

But are you sure the house edge in baccarat wouldn't decrease this chance by more than you are suggesting?

[doubleup]

The house edge is apparently 1.24% - tbh not sure if this is 48.76/51.24 or 49.38/50.62.

If the first the spin-up is 1.24% (wierdly), the second its 4.5%.

[The Camel]

The house edge is apparently 1.24% - tbh not sure if this is 48.76/51.24 or 49.38/50.62.

If the first the spin-up is 1.24% (wierdly), the second its 4.5%.

For every 101.24 you bet you return 100.

I believe.

[AndrewT]

Ivey needs a huge and extended run of luck to win £7 million at these limits.

not really - if you sat down with 10 £100k bets and decided to toss coins against someone with £7m you would win his £7m 12.5% of the time.  Punto Banco has a small edge to the house - if the prob of hero to win was .495 the odds are 6%.

The Mail now claims that the case is going to court.  If this happens, the Gambling Commission upholds the reputation of simiilar institutions as being rubber stamps manned by incompetents. 

Are you sure your maths is correct?

I'm not brilliant at probability, but I would have guessed it was a lot bigger than 7/1 to win 70 units at even money with a 10 unit starting bank.

After 3000 flips you're about 11.8% to have got the 70 units, 85% to have gone busto.

Ok after a bit of thought, I accept this now.

But are you sure the house edge in baccarat wouldn't decrease this chance by more than you are suggesting?

Yeah, it would - the edge in baccarat is 1.06% on the banker bet and 1.24% on the player. Betting red/black in roulette (2.7% edge) you'd hit the 70 bet win only about 1% of the time, so I'd guess baccarat would be something like 4-5%

[doubleup]

The house edge is apparently 1.24% - tbh not sure if this is 48.76/51.24 or 49.38/50.62.

If the first the spin-up is 1.24% (wierdly), the second its 4.5%.

For every 101.24 you bet you return 100.

I believe.

So the second calculation then, so hardly burn the witch time

 

[SuuPRlim]

 Also did they increase his limits when he was winning? They don't usually do that.

His limit was originally £50,000 p/box, this doesn't mean he was ACTUALLY betting 50k a box though, surely it's more likely he was betting less initially and trying to press? So when he upped his limits to £150k he prolly had a "roll" of less than £1m and was almost certainly betting LESS than £150,000 p/ box, but was obv betting 150k a box all the time during the majority of the heater up to £7.3m

Either way it's a strange decision to up his limits because he only has £1m (unless they are thinking he'll likely wire more in if he does it, or has been extended credit of some sort) If a guy has £1m to gamble with you're just as likely to get it at £50k a box as you are at £150k a box over a decent amount of time, but way more likely to get whacked for big sums at £150k than £50k

[redarmi]

In my experience in online casinos and sportsbooks often when someone has a big win from something with a fairly small probability of happening then something is wrong.  When I first started in the game I would work out the probabilities and then just authorise the payments but people more experienced than me were always suspicious and I thought they were just bad losers etc but over the long run they were generally proven to be correct and I would say on 70%+ of occasions if someone won a lot of money and wasn't a really regular customer they were cheating in some way or there was a software glitch or something like that.  I think the problem in tis case is that Ivey does this all over the world and he is a regular customer of casinos and has no history of this but if his companion was banned from the casino for something and this was his first time there then I can't blame them for being suspicious but ultimately they will have to pay him and he will probably be found to have done absilutely nothing wrong.

[AlunB]

How much of PI's net worth do you think £1 million represents? I know pre-Black Friday everyone in the 'know' was talking about him being worth nine figures, but surely nobody believes that anymore.