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Author Topic: stars zoom - genuinely tough one (I think)  (Read 3372 times)
jgcblack
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« on: October 09, 2012, 12:31:55 AM »

UTG          Hero                     $26.66          267bb   
UTG+1     DrMalves               $23.13          231bb   
CO          Schnaffke               $15.65          157bb   
BTN         bracaa                   $12.47          125bb   
SB         frontmaster              $15.65           157bb   
BB         maincoon80             $10.99           110bb   

Hero is UTG  

Pre-Flop ($0.15, 6 players)
Hero raises to $0.30, DrMalves calls $0.30, 3 folds, maincoon80 calls $0.20

Flop ($0.95, 3 players)
 three clubs
maincoon80 checks, Hero bets $0.88, DrMalves raises to $2.48, maincoon80 folds, Hero calls $1.60

Turn ($5.91, 2 players)
 
Hero checks, DrMalves bets $3.94, Hero calls $3.94


River ($13.79, 2 players)
 
Hero checks, DrMalves goes all-in $16.41, $16.41 to Hero ($19.94)?



Information
Villain is 16/10/0.0 over 190 hands
vpip/pfr/3bt

17% vpip from MP
13% call open from MP
100% cbet on flop (2) and turn (1)
100% Raise of cbet (2)
50% check raise on flop
WTSD 15% (13)
W$SD 100% (2)

With a small opening/calling range he obviously has value hands a lot, 190 hands isn't the biggest sample but it should be indicative of a real impression.  However to not have any 3bt's in that range means that he will have JJ-KK all the time in this situation, as such he will obviously think they are for value and in this instance may wish to 'stack off' with a holding far inferior to that of which he should - imo.

With this in mind I decided it was best to call flop and re-evaluate...

The turn makes 55 less likely and narrows his range to 33, 99 and JJ-KK realistically.  And with the stats he' has and the info above this is a 6:18 ratio of combos we lose:beat.




What do we think of the hand as played so far?  Other options during the hand so far?

Options now?

Call?

Fold?


WHY?




They key to this as i see it is that in my experience at <50nl I have seen less than a handful of times people have taken off 'vs me' with less than a 'nut' hand for more than 200bb's.

In fact the only player, I've ever seen to have a bluff in a pot bigger than 200bb's is ... me.


However, with his stats and tendancies, he clearly has a lot of hands that are 'overpairs' and we beat them.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 12:48:09 AM by jgcblack » Logged

skolsuper
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2012, 12:36:11 AM »

Fold flop
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jgcblack
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2012, 12:37:13 AM »

Fold flop

yawn...

why?
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2012, 12:40:23 AM »

he 3bets KK always no?

He must 3bet QQ and JJ a decently high % of the time as well?

he just calls 33, 55, 99.

He won't ALWAYS c/r the flop with JJ-KK, but will almost always c/r sets.

He'll always bet the turn with his sets.

He might not always chose to overjam JJ-KK (in fact I think he'll rarely overjam with those but I might very well be wrong) yet he could defo do that with the sets.

IDK, seems like it's just a fold, unless you're about to show us a reason why it isn't?

There is almost nothing he can be bluffing with, 67/78/64 suited in clubs hearts and diamonds are really the only bluffs 1/3 of them has made a flush and with the description of the player at these stakes I just really don't think he's going to do this.

His line is extremely consistent with the value hands we lose to, it's possible he'd take this line with a value hand we beat but there are other, more feasible lines for him to have taken with those hands and I just don't think he's bluffing ever.
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skolsuper
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2012, 12:45:19 AM »


Coz this:


Turn ($5.91, 2 players)
 
Hero checks, DrMalves bets $3.94, Hero calls $3.94


River ($13.79, 2 players)
 
Hero checks, DrMalves goes all-in $16.41, $16.41 to Hero ($19.94)?
]
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skolsuper
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2012, 12:46:45 AM »

River is not a tough spot either.
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jgcblack
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2012, 12:46:59 AM »

Guys, please...


1. He has no 3bt over 200 hands - strange...
2. He has raise both times I've seen him face a cbet, both times when he was IP
3. He is IP this hand and has flatted pre then raised flop


Obviously we would expect him to flat the pairs pre

Unless he has a really unusual preflop hand chat he doesn't have ANY of the small sc's or non-sooted conectors.




Therefore - he has pairs and big cards that look similar in his range.... we beat that range + he will think its a good hand often on this texture.

Disagree??
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skolsuper
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2012, 12:53:15 AM »

Samples of 2 and 1 are meaningless, you'd literally be better off consulting tea leaves or a ouija board for guidance. Over 190 hands the only meaningful stats you have on this guy are Vpip and pfr (vs a loose player you would know more at this stage), and you can be reasonably confident his 3b is less than 5. That is all.
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jgcblack
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2012, 12:53:44 AM »

His hand possibilities:

1. Royal Flush - no
2. Straight Flush - no
3. Quadriplets - possible
4. Full house - there are 9 possible
5. Flush - no
6. Straight - no
7. Three of a kind - no
8. Two pair - yes QQ to AA
9. One pair - no.
10. High card - no.
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jgcblack
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2012, 12:55:15 AM »

Samples of 2 and 1 are meaningless, you'd literally be better off consulting tea leaves or a ouija board for guidance. Over 190 hands the only meaningful stats you have on this guy are Vpip and pfr (vs a loose player you would know more at this stage), and you can be reasonably confident his 3b is less than 5. That is all.

Are you saying that he may have just not had AA in those hands and that he may in fact only 3bt AA?

possible.

+ we have 2 of them.

What about the times he has KK on a 9xx board? What does he think of his hand then?



Here come the rest of the heros
jgcblack, DMorgan, stato_1, WotRTheChances (+ 1 Hidden) and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.


Dan, Andy and the hidden guests..
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DMorgan
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2012, 12:57:19 AM »

Fold flop. 16/10 has a set here always.
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skolsuper
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2012, 12:59:27 AM »

By the river, he has a full house or quads, that much we know. The only question is, can we beat either of those hands with our two pair? With reference to your handy chart, I don't think we can.
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jgcblack
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2012, 12:59:55 AM »

Fold flop. 16/10 has a set here always.

What about his range... his small sample shows an aggro post flop player.. and he has all the big pairs?Huh?Huh???

Am I going crazy or something?
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DMorgan
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2012, 01:00:24 AM »

lol fyl Thigh
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jgcblack
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2012, 01:01:59 AM »

lol fyl Thigh

 
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