1knl 200bbs deep Overbet vs capped range

[pleno1]

Thoughts? No real reads, maybe 12 hands or so.

$5/$10  No Limit Holdem 
Prima 
2 Players 
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com 
 
Stacks: 
SB  pleno1 ($5,080.25) 508bb 
BB  Player4 ($1,919) 192bb 
 
Pre-Flop: ($15, 2 players) pleno1 is SB :jh :kh 
pleno1 raises to $35, Player4 calls $25 
 
Flop: :as :qd : ($70, 2 players) 
pleno1 bets $50, Player4 calls $50 
 
Turn: : ($170, 2 players) 
pleno1 bets $350 
 
Final Pot: $170 
 
 

[toddswain]

Thoughts on sizing ? Could be much smaller with exact same affect

[Donk23]

reasoning behind turn overbet with no reads?

[pleno1]

.

[SuuPRlim]

Why is his range capped?

Feels like he could have    and 88 all pretty easily, AA/QQ/AQ all very unlikely granted, feels like we're really targetting his "better hand" A7~ type range and trying to make them fold which with no reads seems a little unnecessary.

We're on different levels though

[rfgqqabc]

Seems like a bitch to balance long term.

[Honeybadger]

Seems like a bitch to balance long term.

Not making any comment on the play itself, nor on whether balancing is something we should be even concerning ourselves with. All I wanted to say is that the quote is actually incorrect IMO.

This is actually a really easy spot to balance if you do choose to make these sort of plays. You can have a much higher bluff:nuts ratio since you are laying your opponent a worse price. And it's not that tough to allocate combos to bluff with to balance out your combos of AA, QQ, 88 etc.

There are potential problems with using this type of line, but I don't think ability to balance is one of them. No time to write any more though.

[rfgqqabc]

Can't quote on phone. I don't have any experience and was just giving a quick thought. The pricing issue drastically changing the ratio wasn't something I had thought of. If you can balance seems fine, but how does the likelihood of match length etc make at this level? I presume match would be short.

[Honeybadger]

Thing is, just because you can balance something it does not mean it is a good play.

I personally like the idea of using overbets vs capped ranges. But I am not 100% sure this is a good spot in which to do so. It is a BvB dynamic (I assume the BTN has sat out because SB is first to act rather than OTB) and thus ranges are going to be really wide. And villain really suspicious. Thus I'd expect most villains to see any two pair hand as a nutted hand. Which means his range is not truly 'capped' in practice since he can have a lot of two pair combos plus of course 88. Overbetting becomes very expensive when there is a reasonable chance that an opponent has something nutted. Even just the fact that he can be slowplaying the 3 combos of 88 will likely cause some problems with the maths.

Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if this line was +EV. But I'd also expect that making a more normal-sized turn barrel would be more +EV. Of course I could be wrong about this though.

BTW, this is definitely a good choice of hand to have in your barrelling range on this sort of dry Ace high flop, regardless of how the barrel should be sized.

[Honeybadger]

More I think about this the more I think that just a normal sized turn bet is much better. There is SO much weak stuff that opponent will float flop with then fold the turn (loads of gutshots, Qx etc) that we don't need to try to maybe force him to fold the strong parts of his range through overbetting. Especially when it is so expensive the (relatively rare) times we do run into the strong section of his range. Plus, if opponent is at all cognisant of his weak range here it makes him much more likely to get stubborn with anything fairly strong.

Edited to say: Also note there is a significant difference between an AQ8r flop and an AQ7r flop. You'll get floated a LOT more on the AQ8r flop because there are more gutshots (T9, JT, J9). Which means you should barrel blank turns with a higher frequency compared to the AQ7r flop. Of course, you don't need to overbet to get these floats to fold.

[SuuPRlim]

Plus, if opponent is at all cognisant of his weak range here it makes him much more likely to get stubborn with anything fairly strong.

Excellent point that I always struggle to make put excellently

[PaintingByNumbers]

BTW, this is definitely a good choice of hand to have in your barrelling range on this sort of dry Ace high flop, regardless of how the barrel should be sized.

Can you explain this a bit more?

Plus, if opponent is at all cognisant of his weak range here it makes him much more likely to get stubborn with anything fairly strong.

They surely will be well aware of this.

[Honeybadger]

BTW, this is definitely a good choice of hand to have in your barrelling range on this sort of dry Ace high flop, regardless of how the barrel should be sized.

Can you explain this a bit more?

Unless we are turning Ax or Qx into a bluff using blocker effect, we should choose hands to bluff with that have some equity when called. This basically means gutshots, of which KJ is the best since every now and then hitting a K will win too (if villain has called down with Qx twice).

[Honeybadger]

Go on PaintingByNumbers... Do your first proper long theory post right here right now. Sick of seeing you post short pithy stuff, I want a full on JP theoretical analysis!

[pleno1]

Ok he folded but I have a rabbit cam (seriously...) and over was off suit 10. Sizings?