Can someone please help me cos this is doing my head in

[Mr F]

I've just started to introduce Hold'em to my local pub as I hate playing three card brag.  They like the game and it hasn't caused any fights yet unlike the aforementioned game. 

The problem I have is that a couple of the guys are convinced that there is no skill involved in the game and it all just boils down to luck.  I've tried to explain to them that that's not the case but they don't believe me.  Of course it doesn't help that in the last game (which I wasn't at) the pub drunk got wasted fell over banged his head and still won.

So can someone please put down an explanationfor this in a simple form that I can put to a bunch of newbies.

Thanks

 

[Scottish Dave]

I've just started to introduce Hold'em to my local pub as I hate playing three card brag.  They like the game and it hasn't caused any fights yet unlike the aforementioned game. 

The problem I have is that a couple of the guys are convinced that there is no skill involved in the game and it all just boils down to luck.  I've tried to explain to them that that's not the case but they don't believe me.  Of course it doesn't help that in the last game (which I wasn't at) the pub drunk got wasted fell over banged his head and still won.

So can someone please put down an explanationfor this in a simple form that I can put to a bunch of newbies.

Thanks

 

the reason they will think its luck, as does everyone ive ever tried to explain it too, is that newbies have no concept of folding, they just keep calling calling calling all day long. In this instance, if all players stay in till the show down then yes its down to luck to see who hits what, but it will take a lot longer than 1 or 2 games to show these newbies about pot odds and calculated bluffs, check raising etc etc etc and everything else that goes with this game that makes it skillful

[Triple X]

in a one off game yes there is a hell of a lot of luck involved - there is no denying that.

If by the end of the year and over many many game the pub drunk has won the most money / tournies then i will admit that it is mainly down to luck.  However I suspect that over the long run, the familiar faces will be at the top.  That is certainly what happens in my home game.  With the right cards and luck anyone can win one night - but the good players will come on top over the year.

So in short - yes a lot of luck in the short run (especialy a single game) but in the long run, no way, skill is the predominant factor.  It is silly to put percentages on it but i think that is the fairest way of looking at it

[rivered]

best way i find is to give a simple statistical answer and a simple psychological example.

statistical
you're heads up, you've seen the flop and turn and you're on a flush draw.  the approx odds of hitting a flush draw if you see the river is 4-1 (there are four suits...).  If say the pot is 100, and someone bets 20, then there's 120 in the pot and it costs 20 to see the next card.  therefore you're betting is costing you 6-1, and you have a 4-1 chance of hitting, so in the long run, over a million hands, you'll be in profit.  if however the pot is 100 and he bets 100, it's costing you 100 in to a 200 pot, so it's costing you 2-1 on a 4-1 shot... if you think you're 'lucky' and call all the time, in the long run you'll always lose.

pyschological
derren brown's thing where he knows which hand you're holding something in - this isn't down to luck, it's his skill at 'reading people'... you can develop these skills and have a reasonable idea of when people and bluffing...

[ACE2M]

Win the game every week and this will prove it.

[matt674]

or better still tell me which pub it is and i'll come down every week and win it 

[Robert HM]

"The Monkey's Head"

[matt674]

"The Monkey's Head"

you missed the "A" out Mr. Robert squire.

They will be saying "The Monkey's Ahead"

tsk tsk

[Robert HM]

Good retort 

[matt674]

Good retort 

thank you sir. any chance i can get my rope back now from the PPRO? my tyre swing just isnt the same without it

[Robert HM]

In the post

[matt674]

WOOHOO "happy days are here again...."

TY squire

<monkey hands thread back to its original owner>

[Robert HM]

with rope matt returns to his previous swinging lifestyle

[matt674]

Well i thought everybody knew.

"Weeeellllllllllllllllllllll i'm the king of the swingers, the jungle VIP.........."

[weirwizard]

Ask them how the same people always make the final tables of the big holdem tournaments?